September 2022 Market Update

Summer is coming to an end! The question is – is the real estate market coming to an end as well? If you read the headlines, watch the news, and talk with co-workers and family members (who are not real estate professionals), the answer is probably ‘yes’. Prices are going to crash, we are in a bubble, inventory is going to skyrocket, foreclosures are going to ramp up, and more false information floats around regularly. Luckily, you have the voice of reason – me – to tell you the real facts, especially about the Northern Virginia Market. 

First things first: prices will go down in some areas, but not all, and not drastically. Some sellers will be desperate and will sell their homes for less than market value, as their circumstances will dictate their motivation. This is the exception and not the norm. They’ll still make money on the sale, as prices have increased in the last few years, so they’ll not be in a negative equity position. Some sellers will receive multiple offers and prices will escalate – again, this is the exception and not the norm. This is ok, as we don’t need the market to continue to have prices escalate $25,000 – $150,000 over the list price. That was just not sustainable. 

Inventory is not going to skyrocket, and we won’t suddenly have an oversupply of houses on the market. Why? Many homeowners have 2.5-3.5% interest rates on their mortgages and their payments are affordable, so why would they just suddenly list? Because people say the market is going to crash? Not gonna happen. Inventory levels have dropped in the last six weeks in our market, and that trend will probably continue. People are selling today because they need to – not because the market is on fire. Houses will stay on the market for two to three months – not two to three hours, or even two to three days – and that is ok. We are in a balanced market. This will frustrate some sellers, but the market has changed, so settle in and know that these are the conditions today. 

In today’s balanced market, buyers will have time to look at houses more than once and for longer than just five minutes. Their contracts will have contingencies, and this, too, is ok. 

Lastly, we are not going to have a foreclosure explosion. People have equity and jobs. They will exist, but there will not be an onslaught of them.

Sellers – it is time to balance the expectations of your sale to mimic the new market. Have patience – your house will sell. Buyers – know you will have time and choices, which is a good thing, but also know that sellers will not drop prices by 10%. Be realistic and you will get a home that fits your lifestyle. Buy for the long term and don’t be concerned about price fluctuations – they are normal.

With all that being said, some parts of the country will see bigger price drops because their prices increased nearly 50% in just a few years. They will see more inventory coming on the market. Their markets are not as sustainable as ours. Remote work situations have reversed in many cases, making these “hot markets” not so hot. 

I can tell you more and show you charts and images that back all of this up, so feel free to reach out if you want to learn more. As always, I am here to help you (and those you know) with their real estate needs. Call me to discuss how all of this affects you or them!

Now, go watch some football!

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