October 2019 Mid Month Market Update

Here’s your latest real estate market update for Northern Virginia. Inventory is low, it’s a seller’s market! And with interest rates still at an all-time low, not is a great time to buy!

What do you think? How is the market in your area?

Thinking of buying or selling? I’m happy to provide you with a free market analysis if your home. Give me a call to talk about your specific situation and needs. Call me at 703-652-5777 or email at scottmacdonald@remax.net

October 2019 Market Update

It is hard to believe we are entering the 4th Quarter of 2019 already.

It will be interesting to see what the vision of the real estate market will be in 2020. Right now, the real estate market is very dynamic and very hyperlocal. We see inventory levels remaining low relative to previous years. We currently have a total of 4,122 houses for sale in Northern Virginia – 33% fewer homes for sale through September this year versus last year. Homes priced below $350,000 represent only 719 houses with only 45 of these are located in Arlington. The Amazon Effect in full force in Arlington. Homes priced between $350,000 and $700,000 make up 1,822 homes of the total inventory numbers, only 46 of these are located in Arlington. Lastly, houses priced above $700,000 make up 1,582 of the houses for sale in the marketplace and there are only 118 in this price range located in Arlington.

As you can see, the market is different in each location, I just picked Arlington as an example.  That does not tell the whole story – prices are up year over year in all of Northern Virginia by 3.6% while in Arlington, they are up 12.4%. Additionally, the median days on market in all of Northern Virginia is 15 days on the market and in Arlington…you guessed it, lower at only 8 days on the market. The market is definitely hot for sellers “if” you price it right and do the right upgrades. Buyers will pay for ready to go houses and will pass on the ones that need work or updating.

This being said, housing prices are up year over year throughout our area – just not substantially. The 3.8% is healthy and sustainable. The issue we are having is sellers are trying to attain 5% per month and therefore the houses are not selling. In today’s market, buyers are being very discerning on prices and are not making offers including low offers. Sellers who overprice their houses or price in “negotiating room” find themselves sitting.

If you are looking to buy or sell in today’s dynamic market, call me today to set up a no-obligation consultation to learn more.

Enjoy the cooler temperatures heading our way! Happy Halloween!

September Market Update

My whole career I have been asked, “So, how’s the market?” Well, this year and more specifically, in the last few months, I have been asked this even more. It is a loaded question because it depends on whether you are a buyer, a seller, or if you are looking to rent and most importantly where you are looking to do any of these types of transactions.  After we clarify what they want to know, I find it is a lot of curiosity because people love to talk about real estate. It also is of interest to them because in our discussions I hear things like, “I don’t see any for sale signs in my neighborhood”, “when houses go up for sale in my area, they sell right away”, “my friend is looking for a house and they are losing out on multiple contracts” and many other similar comments so there is a genuine interest in “How’s the market”.

Overall, in Northern Virginia, the inventory on active resale homes is down over 31% from last year and units sold are virtually the same which means it is extremely competitive to be a buyer and if you price your house correctly, you can be a very happy seller. As always it is a hyper-local market so let’s take a deeper dive into the counties.

  • Arlington County – the Amazon Effect is keeping inventory low, median days on the market extremely low but interestingly enough, prices are not as high as you would think considering the supply and demand in that area. Closed sales are down as inventory is down and prices are up just 4%. Houses sell quickly – median days on market are just 9!
Statistic Jul YoY MoM
Total Sold Dollar Volume 182,179,254 down5.9% down7.5%
Closed Sales 266 down9.5% -0.4%
Median Sold Price $616,000 up1.3% +9%
Average Sold Price $684,884 up4% -7.2%
Median Days on Market 9 days down75.7% 0%
Average Days on Market 30 days down40% -16.7%
  • Fairfax County – Prices are up Year over Year but down Month over Month which indicates sellers are starting off too high and then making adjustments to get them sold. Days on market for Median Days and average days indicate a strong market but remember, price is critical to getting houses sold today. Closed sales are up Year over Year but are down Month over Month.
Statistic Jul YoY MoM
Total Sold Dollar Volume 1,027,443,963 up7.9% down5.9%
Closed Sales 1,680 up6.5% -4.8%
Median Sold Price $539,900 up2.3% -4.4%
Average Sold Price $612,668 up1.5% -1.1%
Median Days on Market 17 days down56.4% +6.3%
Average Days on Market 33 days down31.3% +6.5%
  • Loudoun County – the market in Loudoun is slowing a little as they are experiencing what other regions are – Year over Year gains but Month over Month declines. Median Days on Market jumped MoM but prices are maintaining in the area.  There is lots of pent up demand in Loudoun – stay tuned on their progress.
Statistic Jul YoY MoM
Total Sold Dollar Volume 408,811,460 up8.4% down2.8%
Closed Sales 747 up1.8% -1.2%
Median Sold Price $512,250 up8.5% -0.5%
Average Sold Price $549,478 up6.9% -1.4%
Median Days on Market 23 days down39.5% +43.8%
Average Days on Market 38 days down34.5% +22.6%
  • Prince William County – consistent with the other counties showing price reductions but an overall strong market as sales are strong and Days on Market are low. Prince William offers the lowest prices so more value!
Statistic Jul YoY MoM
Total Sold Dollar Volume 318,271,988 up5.4% down1.5%
Closed Sales 778 down0.4% 0%
Median Sold Price $385,000 up6.9% -2.5%
Average Sold Price $409,616 up5.9% -1.8%
Median Days on Market 24 days down41.5% +14.3%
Average Days on Market 38 days down19.2% +5.6%

Remember, within the counties, there is also a deeper dive that needs to be taken into consideration in neighborhoods and price points. Hopefully, this gives you a better idea of what is happening in our real estate market in Northern Virginia.  If you have any questions or concerns or if you are looking to make a move, please feel free to call me.

June Market Update

The Summer Market is Upon Us!

It is hard to believe we are already through the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Time is really flying this year – at least it seems that way to me. Kids are home from college, summer jobs have started, weekend pool parties are in full swing and the real estate market is just as busy as it has been all year. Let’s start with the amazing mortgage interest rates that continue to tumble downward. They are now well into the threes for 30-year fixed rates and are expected to go down even further. This makes now a great time to buy a home! It can still be a challenge to find the right house, as inventory levels remain extremely low – 19% below last year this same week and nearly 30% below what was on the market two years ago. What is also amazing is that sales are up with inventory levels being down. Through April (latest available data point), there was one more sale this year than last year…one more is one more than before. I believe that interest rates will continue to foster sales through the summer as inventory will come on the market. Let’s talk about your plans if you are considering selling – we can position you properly to take advantage of today’s market.

All this being said, the market is not good to all sellers. The reason for this is some sellers are under the belief that their property will sell regardless of price and condition. We are seeing a lot of unrealistic prices on properties, as well as houses in disrepair or in need of substantial work to get the prices sellers are asking. We have seen average prices up over last year by 2.75% which is great, but it is not 2.75% per month like some sellers are pricing their houses at today (and “hoping” to get for them).

From a buyer’s prospective, we are still in a price conscience market. Buyer’s are concerned about paying too much and are analyzing prices closely, especially if they are using a professional REALTOR and not the internet to help them buy a house. The internet is not the way to buy a house today or anytime. The guidance and expertise of a real estate professional is more important today than ever before. If you are considering buying, we should talk sooner rather than later so give me a call.

Have a great June – enjoy the graduation parties!

March Market Update

The Spring Market has Arrived!

The Spring Market has sprung into action! Although inventory levels are down, activity on listings is up, open house visitors are abundant and multiple contracts on listings are happening more frequently throughout Northern Virginia. In Arlington and close in locations, we are seeing contingencies getting waived and huge escalation clauses for buyers to win contracts. It is a good sign for our market to have such great activity and I expect it to continue for the next few months.

All this being said, pricing properties properly is still paramount to success in getting houses sold. Along the Route 1 corridor close to Amazon’s HQ2 people are definitely “future pricing” their houses. Their hopes to cash in are not bearing any fruit and I don’t believe this pricing strategy is going to get them sales any time soon. At this time, pinpoint accuracy in pricing is the strategy to undertake. Do not price for negotiations. Do not price higher because the neighbor received multiple contracts (as not all listings with multiple contracts are going above list price as I mentioned last month’s newsletter).

If you are a buyer, do not despair, we can help you find a house even in the low inventory market dynamic that we are currently experiencing. Although we are below 3,000 active houses for sale in Northern Virginia, the pace of houses coming on the market for sale is increasing each week. We also have access to “Coming Soon” properties through our network of professionals whom we deal with on a regular basis. Having someone scout out properties for you before they officially hit the market is extremely important, so please feel free to call me to discuss this in more detail.

Don’t forget to set your clocks ahead this month and get out there and enjoy the longer days!

18_300990_Q1 Social Sharables_daylightsavingtime

February Market Update

Will the Spring Market Arrive Sooner than Later?

What an interesting January we have experienced both weather-wise and in the real estate business. We have golfed and we have shoveled snow/ice this month.  We have had multiple contracts on some houses, and we have had houses sitting on the market (with no showings) for days and even weeks. We have had mild temperatures and we have had epically cold days. We have had 30 plus people at open houses on weekends and we have had no visitors at others.  We have windy days and days that had no breezes. We have seen mortgage interest rates go up and now they are at yearly lows. And, like the temperatures this week, we have seen inventory levels drop to 14-year lows. As I said, it was a very interesting January.

The biggest question we have in the real estate industry is… When will more houses come on the market for sale? Historically we have seen houses start go up for sale the second week of February. So, will this year be the same or will we continue along the same path we are on now…inventory levels going down? The answer is, time will tell.  In conversations with agents across our five offices, we are hearing about some houses will be “coming soon” but not a significant number of them. If you are considering selling, this could be your perfect time to do so.

What is odd to me, and others, is prices are not escalating like you might expect. The tried and true economic theory of supply and demand in regard to pricing does not apply in this market. We have a lack of supply and LOTS of demand, but prices are staying relatively flat and, in some situations, we are even seeing price reductions fairly regularly. Additionally, in several multiple contract situations, we have not seen escalation clauses or even full price offers. Going back to my original sentence, it was an interesting January.

All this being said, we can provide you with the right advice on how you should approach this “interesting” market. Whether you are selling or buying a home, each market and personal situation is different.  So, give me a call to learn more.

Happy Valentine’s Day!

home is where the heart is.jpg

 

Scott’s Market Minute 1/18/19

The temperature is dropping (again)… so is inventory (again). So how low will it go? Inventory is needed, now is the time to sell. Learn more in my latest Market Minute Message.

If you would like to talk about your buying or selling needs, give me a call at 703-652-5777 or email me at scottmacdonald@remax.net

January Market Update

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year everyone!  “Wow” … that’s what I have to say about our current invent18_300720_q4 social_shares_new_yearory level of homes for sale. As many of you know, I have been tracking active inventory of resale homes since the first week of March 2005. At first it was monthly, now it is weekly as the market can be very dynamic. The reason I initially started this tracking routine back in March 2005 is because I had heard there were 148 contracts on a house in Arlington. We all thought there was little inventory available, so I ran numbers for Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William and Fauquier Counties, in addition to all the cities within those counties. My analysis concluded that there were only 1,652 houses for sale. With the high demand and unrestricted lending guidelines back in 2005, it is no wonder that we would see so many contracts on ONE individual property. What is even more interesting is by July 2005 there were 7,705 houses listed for sale – truly a rapid ascent, but what is really crazy is that number soared to 22,898 in November 2006. As we all recall, the market crashed in 2007.

So, why do I say “wow”?  Today our inventory level is at the second lowest number since I have been tracking them (March 2005) – only 2,713 homes are currently for sale. I don’t believe we are going to see the rapid ascent as we did in the past, as there is not the exuberance in the market place like there was in the early 2000’s. That being said, we need houses to sell! Buyers are out looking. We had multiple showings on both Christmas Day and New Year’s Day – there is a strong demand for housing. Interest rates are creeping lower, so buyers are looking to take advantage of this opportunity. If you are considering selling, now is a great time. Typically, we see inventory rise the second or third week of February. Let’s see how the market trends this year. Obviously, every situation is personal and different so if you are considering a move, call me to discuss how we can help you.

Wishing you and your family a very prosperous 2019!

 

August Market Update

As Summer Winds Down…

Wow, did July fly by or what? It seems like it just started and it is over already. This month we saw inventory levels stay steady – which is typical for this time of year. The biggest difference is the amount of inventory available in the resale market. We are currently down 12% from this time last year. The good news for sellers is the pace of sales is comparable to last year’s sales – resulting in a 1.9 month supply of homes versus 2.1 last year. Unfortunately, while overall home prices are up, they are not flying off the market as quickly as they did earlier this year. Therefore, patience is required in some selling situations. The buyers in today’s market are taking their time making decisions as they are not feeling compelled to write an offer on the home the first time they view it. The market dynamics have shifted, and sellers need to be aware of this, so they remain patient and not anxious. If you are thinking of selling, let’s get together to discuss your plans in more detail.

Mortgage interest rates are about a half point higher than last year, so this may also be impacting a buyer’s decision-making process. In addition, some houses have higher price tags than what they are worth resulting in some buyer hesitation on making offers as they don’t want to offend the seller. It is a complex transaction and will, in many cases, be someone’s largest asset, so taking the time and analyzing the house, the market and various options available to them can be a good thing for many people. In any of these
situations, I’d be happy to assist in helping find the best location and home
for you when deciding to make a move.

end of summer

As high school sports are back in full swing with their practices starting and the vacation season behind us, let’s see if we don’t have a quick uptick in housing sales before September. As always, time will tell.  Enjoy the hot rainy weather and feel free to call us anytime.

 

July Market Update

Mid-Year Update18_300364_SummerSocialCovers_FB4

With half of the year over, the real estate market in Northern Virginia has slowed to a normal pace. This has put some sellers and Realtors in a bit of a panic as they felt the brisk market we experienced earlier this year was going to continue for a longer time than it did. It is important to understand that the frenetic pace of sales in February, March and into April was not sustainable nor the norm. We still are experiencing sales, but houses are not selling in hours or days for the most part, but are now selling in weeks, which is what is the expected time frame. Buyers are being more selective and taking their time making decisions which, again, is normal. Keep in mind, there is now more inventory and houses are staying on the market longer which means more choices and time for buyers to make decisions. If you are the seller, please know that this is okay. Your house will sell if it has a compelling price, is in great condition and a in nice location, it just won’t sell as fast as your neighbor’s house did earlier this year. Keep in mind, we are still seeing multiple offers on homes that meet the conditions above.

The real estate market can and does change on a dime. Important factors to pay attention to are: inventory levels in your price range, days on market – both average and median, and prices – if are they up or if are they are down. Every market is different and therefore deserves special attention which we can help you analyze. Experience matters so be sure to reach out to us if you are considering selling.

Interest rates on mortgages increased but have recently eased back down which is good news for buyers. We expect to be in this type of environment through the end of the year – somewhere between 4.5 and 5% for 30 -year fixed loans. These are awesome rates for sure, which is important for buyers to remember. The theory is higher rates will affect first time buyers in lower price points more than move up buyers or even first-time buyers in higher price points, so keep an eye out if you are considering a purchase. We are here to help you determine what loan program is best for you. We are full service!
Have a very Happy 4th of July celebrating with family and friends. Be safe!