foreclosures

November Listing Exchange

Leave a comment

Listing Exchange 004

We are experiencing short sale success!  One agent got a short sale approved with
clients being current on their mortgage, another one was approved in 3.5 weeks,
many are being approved with the commission negotiated with the sellers, and
one agent got one approved while sitting in the exchange – 6 months after
submission but it was still approved. 
Bank of America is now retaining the right to pursue a deficiency
judgment and letting the seller know that the MI Company may also pursue the
deficiency.  More banks may follow suit –
stay tuned!

Inventory is dropping all over Northern Virginia and the
market continues to be extremely price sensitive.  A home was listed at $275,000 received 3
contracts and the price was escalated up to $300,000 and appraised close to the
sales price.  As luck would have it, the
loan was denied due to fraudulent tax returns being submitted.  Property was relisted for $300,000 because of
the appraisal and 27 showings occurred with no contracts in 2.5 weeks so price
was reduced to $275,000 and two offers are coming in – price properties
correctly and they will sell.

At a recent Buffini
conference he noted:  in 2010 be a Go
Getter or be a Go Goner;   Be a stay
puter and be a bankrupter;  be a do
nothinger and be an out of the businesser! 
What are you going to be next year?

4 million foreclosures expected in 2010 – filings are
slowing down after 6 consecutive months of increases in foreclosure filings.        

Rates are at near low rates for the year.  MBS being purchased by the government will
stop in March – what will happen to rates? 
Who will be a buyer of mortgages at that time?  Right now, we are in a high 4’s market will
probably be in a high 5’s market now.  Again,
now is the time to buy a house!

FHA has reserves of .5% because of demand on their
insurance…what will happen?  Will we need
higher down payments?  Will upfront
mortgage insurance be higher?

In a recent survey of buyers, they felt that on a scale of 1
– 10, 10 being difficult to obtain a loan, getting a loan today ranks as an
8.1.  Lenders are requiring more
paperwork, analyzing loans more and are more difficult to get through.

As most of us know, the tax credit has been
extended…but most REALTOR’s and lenders are not explaining it correctly.  Take advantage of the opportunity and explain
it to your clients and ask for new business!

Upcoming events:

Food Bank ends Friday – please contribute

December 4th is our Quarterly meeting featuring
Dave Stevens – please register!

Breakfast with Santa is December 5th in the
Chantilly office – invite all of your clients!

At our events, the education is great, the food is plentiful
and the networking is awesome – you need to attend.  Get it? 
Got it?  Good!

Now go sell
something!

Answering the ‘Not So Simple Questions’

Leave a comment

I was recently asked by an old friend, an innocent question
in his mind I am sure but as you can see from my answer it is anything but a
simple question.  He asked, “How will the
market be in the spring?”. 

Here is the response: 

You ask an interesting question which requires me to pull
out my crystal ball.  Here goes my best
guess.  There is a lot of uncertainty of
what can happen in the spring.  There is
speculation that the extension
of the Tax Credit will pass and be offered to all buyers (with
restrictions) through April 30th, then reduce quarterly through the end of the
year until it is gone.  This measure will
help sustain momentum that we currently have in the market – especially in the
under $400,000 market.  In all likelihood
it should pass this week.  This, as
previously mentioned will be good for our market. 

At this time we have very low inventory – it's down 54% from
this time last year.  It has been rumored
that foreclosures
will be released into the market by the banks – the question is, how many
are in NOVA and how will they be released? 
Slowly or just dumped.  If we have
a lot and they are released simultaneously, how far will prices fall?  We have seen the phenomenon of prices falling
with low supply and high demand – it is a true economic anomaly in my
opinion.  If they are released
strategically and are allowed to be absorbed by the market naturally, we will
continue to see a rebound price wise and have a healthier market.  Tying into this question is how soon will
they be released?  This supply and demand
aspect which is tied to pricing is also critical to the strength of new home
sales.  With the cost of land, builders
can’t build product and make money in many areas, they are “shut out” of being
able to build.  Until we see an increase
in prices, many builders will remain on the sidelines.  This carrot of foreclosures has been dangling
in front of us for about a year now. 
Stay tuned on this one as it may be a critical piece to our housing
recovery depending upon how it is handled.

Mortgage interest rates are low now but have slowly
increased upward the last few weeks. 
The government has committed to buy Mortgage Backed Securities through
next spring – to the tune of $1.2 trillion. 
Who will step up to buy these securities in the future?  If no one does, how high will rates go and
how quickly?  Additionally, it appears as
if we see the high loan limit of $729,750 stay at this level for our area, if
it doesn't, how drastically will it hurt the upper price points that are
already experiencing a slower market.

Right now, we have buyers looking for homes, we have low
inventory levels, low interest rates and loan programs to get buyers into
houses.  It is a great time to be in the
market.  Over the next few weeks, we will
see how things play out for the spring – beyond that will require a second
crystal ball.  Hope this helps!

Here We Go Again

Leave a comment

Scott's Camera 006

Platinum Club October

Asset managers are checking up on their listers to make sure
properties are being marketed properly. 
If you are listing foreclosure properties – tighten up if you want to
keep your listings!

2nd quarter is when the next “wave” of foreclosures
is to be released – here we go again!

3 month moratorium on foreclosures is more here say yet
properties are going to foreclosure in November.  Apparently, the banks are going to do away
“stages” of appraisals.

Ekko works well with short sales, S5 is OK –nothing above
the others, and Advanced Title gets them done.

Banks have stacks of short sales to work through – Bryan had
4 approved in the last week – 1 in 70 days, 2 in 3 to 4 months and 1 in 6
months.  It seems as if the Asset Manager
makes all of the difference not necessarily the bank. 

Take short sale listings to generate buyer s leads and close
them because chances are your listing
won’t close.  Short sales make the agents look incompetent.

Buyers are indecisive and becoming unrealistic – coming up
with excessive home inspection lists.

Upper bracket prices continue to fall and those buyers are
more cautious.  People are backing out of
remodeling contracts as well – the economy is their excuse of why they aren’t
moving forward.  National news and lack
of details about our market is making them uncomfortable in both scenarios.

Are there more listings coming on the market?  The answer is yes – inventory is low put it
on now.

Builder activity is on the rise.  One builder, Van Metre is up 40% and is
raising their prices – NVR posted a 50%
increase over last year’s sales.

We all believe Tax Credit for first time buyers will be
extended.  As previously discussed each
real estate transaction “touches” 29 different industries and generates $62,000
in capital to the economy.

We also believe that the loan limit will go back to $625,500
and remain there as prices are lower – we all have had fewer sales above the
$700,000 price range.  Also, the
government may want to diminish their exposure and not raise it back up.

Condo associations need to be proactive to get their
properties approved FHA after November 2, 2009 – no one has heard of any
associations taking the lead.  Be sure to
make sure the project is in process of approval prior to finalizing
contacts.  No more spot approvals with
FHA after this date.  Here
are the outlines of the program – lots of questions are still
unanswered.  Will this kill the condo
market?

What does all of this mean? 
Professional Realtors are more valuable and more needed today more than
ever.  Get it?  Got it? 
Good!

Now, go sell something!

Scott's Camera 007                     Scott's Camera 008

It’s time to invest!

Leave a comment

What was the first thought that came into your mind?  Was it about the stock market?  Or was it about buying investment properties?   Perhaps you thought it was getting others to invest in the previous two areas of opportunities.  Now, what do you believe this statement is about?  What does invest mean?  Dictionary.com says it means :

1.

To put (money) to use, by purchase or expenditure, in something offering potential profitable returns, as interest, income, or appreciation in value.

 

2.

To use (money), as in accumulating something: to invest large sums in books or education.

 

3.

To use, give, or devote (time, talent, etc.), as for a purpose or to achieve something: He invested a lot of time in growing himself personally and professionally.

 Well, taking this into account, my intention was that it is time to invest in yourself and your business.  The top companies in the world invest in their people – you should invest in you as well!  If companies do it, why don’t you?

The real estate market, the economy and your business are not out of the woods yet.  Yes, some aspects of the economy are stabilizing but we have a long way to go – foreclosure numbers, default rates, and unemployment rates (although reported to have slowed) continue to rise.  Therefore, now is the time to invest in your business.  It has become obvious to me that during times like these, many agents get too involved “in” their business when in fact, if they want their business to soar to the next level, they should get involved working “on” their business – today.  It is time to reflect on what is working and what isn’t – where are trends in our area heading – who are key players in the industry and what are they doing – more importantly, what are you doing?  Are you attending training?  If not, why not.  If you are involved in foreclosures, are you going to conferences out of town to meet new people, strategize and get new accounts?  If not, why not?  If you are doing short sales, are you meeting with experts who are experiencing success in the business locally and nationally to learn more about trends and what they are doing to be successful?  If not, why not?  Are you taking advantage of the free educational opportunities your association is making available to you?  If not, why not?  Are you taking advantage of one on one opportunities with your broker, fellow agents or a coaching program to help get through the market we are in and are going to encounter?  Again, if not, why not?

These examples could go on for some time.  It is my belief that you need to get out of your house, get out from behind your desk and educate yourself or else you will be left behind – doing what you’ve always done and get the results you’ve always gotten will not propel you to success.  Times change, programs change, economies fluctuate and you need to as well if you want to succeed now and in the future. 

It is important not to confuse activity with accomplishment.  Determine what you want to accomplish and what you need to do to achieve what you set out to do.  If you get willowed in the mire of day to day activities, put blinders on to what is happening around you,  get out and network with others, and ask yourself how can you accomplish “big” things in your life.  It is my opinion you need to invest in you today.  Attend trainings, get coaching, attend business planning (it’s not too late), get a designation, attend mastermind sessions, go to real estate information exchanges.  Take the time to get educated – NOW!  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now go sell something!

We’ve caught the 500 pound elephant…

Leave a comment

Fuller 001

The economy isn’t as bad as we think it is or as the media portrays it to be…especially in our Washington Metro Area.  Dr. Stephen Fuller from GMU’s Center for Regional Analysis spoke to our office today regarding the current economy in our area including unemployment and the state of the housing market…and of course his forecasts for the future.

The future is uncertain. It always has been and as it should be. We can only predict so much. So Dr. Fuller believes that in 2010 and 2011 the housing market in the Washington Metro area is going to be out of control good or in his words it’ll go “gangbutsters”!  That’s pretty optimistic considering the last batch of Alt-A loans (5/1 and 7/1 ARMS) are due to adjust in 2011, but he did say to that end that the majority of those loans have already gone into foreclosure.

Unemployment in our area is down. It’s up around the rest of the nation and according to Dr. Fuller will go up to 10.2 nationally by April of next year before we see it start to come down again.  As of this last month, there is a 3.5 point gap between the national unemployment figure and the figure in our region. He noted that as a country we are losing 200,000 jobs per month and in order to keep employment where it is currently, we would have to accrue 100,000 jobs per month – again, we are losing 200,000 per month.  Employment won’t return to pre-recession numbers until 2014. That’s a heck of a lot of jobs! And half of those job losses are in the retail sector.  Thanks to amazon.com and all of the other internet retailers that offer goods for discounted prices. Store front retailers can’t keep up, end up in bankruptcy and leave buildings and strip malls vacant along with any customer service that might have been associated with it.  Big box retail shopping centers may get rezoned to accommodate housing short fall – stay tuned.

Dr. Fuller did comment on inflation and whether or not it will happen in the near future due to all of the spending our government has been doing lately. Will we have to endure a hard inflation period to “pay it all back”? His answer is not likely.  Unemployment is a major factor affecting our economy, but it’s not enough to put pressure on the economy to spark inflation. He noted that manufacturers are not struggling as hard as they would be during an inflationary period. This is in large part because of all the products you can purchase online. They costs of  not having a physical store, employees, etc. allows for the lower cost product and thus more profit in the long run. Therefore, if they continue to produce the goods, they continue to sell, then inflation shouldn’t occur…but that doesn’t mean another recession won’t occur. Dr. Fuller said another recession is inevitable, but when is the question.

A recession is defined as a period of an economic contraction, sometimes limited in scope or duration or as Wikipedia says it’s when the GDP falls or when we have negative growth. We have experienced this negative growth for the past 18 months and things are finally looking upward.  As is the housing market!

The real estate market in the Washington Metro area is hot and soon to get hotter! At Gateway our sales are up 4% over last year, but our volume is down by 5%, thus showing that prices have come down quite a bit from last year. Dr. Fuller predicted that builders will start building more spec homes about springtime of next year. He commented that we need to have 25,000 new homes (not resales) to accommodate just the new residents in the Northern Virginia area, compared to 1 million nationally. Currently in our Northern Virginia market, inventory is slowing decreasing. This week we see 5,984 active listings on the market…that’s down 56% from this time last year. Just goes to show it’s a great time to sell and with the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit and low interest rates, it’s also a great time to buy.

All is quiet on the Western Front

Leave a comment

All is the same over the last month or so – same issues with short sales, foreclosures, etc

Agents are being more demanding and asking for shorter timelines – short sales are bringing out the worst in other agents.  Agent’s frustration over short sales are carrying over into other transactions.  Agents have an all gloves off mentality.  Buyers and sellers are also frustrated because of timing of getting deals done, HVCC, TIL, etc. 

Nip unprofessionalism behavior in the bud.  Track all conversations in writing with agents.

First time buyers are antsy – wanting deals to be done so they get the tax credit, get rates locked in, and get closed.

Notice of trustee sales is at an all time high

The highest month of foreclosures were September of ’08 – trustee sales today are 30% higher than that

Market is slowing – sales are down because inventory levels are down

Commercial market is about to tank – financing is gone – only sources are pension funds, insurance money and conduit lenders are the only avenues.  No new construction can be financed either.  Churches and schools are building but back log is diminishing.  Commercial market is in directly opposite of residential market.  Death, divorce and relocation are our salvation as well – people have to move!

Titanium is in control of 31,000 people in our area who are in one form of distress – not foreclosed on by the bank yet.

The attached article was also discussed.

Outlying areas are coming back strong – we are doing better than other counties – including Maryland.

That’s it – go sell something!

Interesting market update

Leave a comment

It is an interesting time in the market right now. For the first time in a long time, there are not a lot of changes in our market to report – it is the same ole story – which is kind of nice.   Over the last several weeks, we have reported shifts which were affecting our industry and we were on top of for our clients and agents alike.  Last month we talked about short sales, foreclosures and those trials and tribulations. Right now everything is flat in terms of news. The inventory levels are down, buyers are still out looking for homes, the hot price ranges remain hot and we are ready to help!

What makes me wonder is, is now the calm before the storm?  As we’ve been speaking about over the last several weeks, many questions have been raised that we cannot answer – yet.  Many of our questions include the short sale process, inventory levels, release of foreclosures by banks, and other concerns over distressed properties still have not been answered.  Additionally, we have impending issues we are dealing with such as the first times tax buyer credit coming to an end on November 30, …will that be extended with all of the billions of dollars being spent by the government?  When will interest rates rise…is looming on our horizon – how soon will that happen? Foreclosures are slowing being released…will they be released all at once and will that have an impact on our values?  How much can the government spend to buy mortgage backed securities against the Federal Reserve’s advice and how will this impact us going forward.  There are a lot of questions that need to be answered and only time will tell what the outcome will be for the housing market.  So, for now, there is nothing turbulent to write or speak about today.  All’s well that ends well I guess will be the theme of this month’s update.  Mortgage rates are great, buyers are buying, houses are selling, and we are still working to make it all happen for our clients.  Let’s hope we get more of the same going forward!

Platinum Club….another great meeting!

Leave a comment

Another Platinum Club meeting, another short sale discussion meeting, when will the madness end?  My short answer is, when the government steps in and does something GOOD for our industry and gets banks to streamline and systemize the short sale process.

A few observations from today’s meeting include:  the processor makes all the difference in short sales, not the bank; as the foreclosures diminish, REO managers are migrating to Loss Mitigation departments – too early to tell if this will work better or not but us being optimists in this group, believe it will; despite what others say, make calls on your cases everyday – the squeaky wheel gets the grease.  The belief is that short sale departments are small – not big like everyone may think – in one case, one processor is handling 5 cases for one of the agents; everyone in the chain is overworked – negotiator, processor, and listing agent – much of the paperwork is lost in the process; the deals continue to get more difficult and take longer – one agent lost 6 deals in the last month; if the bank knows the property is vacant, it will speed up the foreclosure process;  the short sale part of the business has made agents more suspicious of each other – no MLS updates or incorrect/unauthorized status changes, unprofessional and/or unethical processes are instituted by many agents – they have clients ratify multiple contracts, and releasing contracts & accepting others without bank rejection of first contract is becoming more commonplace are just a few examples of what is taking place in our market;  only about 23% of short sales are making it to closing due to bank rejection, banks asking for notes from mortgagor, and the time it takes to get them to close today that buyers are releasing themselves from the contract.  From the listing side, to get better success, have buyers remove all contingencies prior to submitting the offer – it is easy to do in multiple contract situations and gets buyer buy in – provide title work, your own BPO, and mock HUD 1 with the offer, don’t wait on these procedures.

Additional discussions covered foreclosures.  There isn’t much happening on the foreclosure front.  The promise of the flood of foreclosures coming on the market is continuing to be delayed – bring it on is what we say as our inventory level is down 56% from the same time last year and the most competitive market is in the first time buyer price range where many of the supposed foreclosures will be priced.  We can sell’em if they list’em.  Listing assignments are down 75% from last year.  BPO’s are up – suspect they are for short sales – not for potential bank inventory.  Last year 1 BPO for every 5 listings obtained, this year it is the opposite, 1 listing for every 5 BPO’s.

Many markets are still extremely price sensitive – even when they are priced just a little high.  When priced right, in the right condition and show well – they sell.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!