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November 2026 Market Update

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The Market Shifted. Here’s What It Means for You.

Here’s the short version of where the market stands this fall: things have slowed down, and buyers have more room to negotiate than they’ve had in years.

Where we are

In Northern Virginia right now we are seeing elevated inventory levels, fewer contracts being written (5 weeks in a row of declines) and as a result, we have a 3.6 month supply of homes.  We have not had this level of month’s supply since the last week of October in 2014.  The house prices have mostly held up locally even in this dynamic situation.

Why

Mostly rates. Most buyers are still looking at mortgage rates above 7%, and that’s keeping a lot of people on the sidelines.

The Fed left its rate unchanged at its meeting this week. That’s good news for now, but there’s a good chance they raise it again down the road, which could keep mortgage rates elevated. Keep an eye on inflation, jobs and now AI (there is always a new twist with the Fed). Then there are the midterm elections. We don’t have a crystal ball, so we won’t know what they mean for housing or rates until we see the results and the elected officials agenda in regards to housing.

If you’re selling

Plan on things taking longer. Homes are staying on the market longer, contracts are taking longer to negotiate, and some inspection negotiations are running 10 days or more.

Price matters more than it has in years. Homes priced right from day one still sell, sometimes with multiple offers. We have seen turnkey home priced just under the comps sell over asking. Homes that start high and chase the market down tend to sit.  Be diligent in your pricing strategy.

Expect buyers to ask for help with closing costs or a rate buydown. Seller concessions in the $15,000 to $20,000 range are common right now. Often the smartest move is a 2-1 buydown, which lowers the buyer’s payment for the first two years and can make your home stand out from the competition.

If you don’t have to sell, waiting until spring is an option. Just know there’s no guarantee spring will be better, and homes that don’t sell this fall will still be on the market competing with yours.

If you’re buying

This is the best leverage buyers have had in years. You have more homes to choose from, less competition, and sellers who are willing to talk about price, repairs and closing costs.

A few things to keep in mind:

  • Ask about a 2-1 buydown. It lowers your rate for the first two years, and if rates drop and you refinance, any unused buydown money typically goes toward your loan balance. In many cases that’s a better use of seller money than paying points for a permanent rate cut that takes years to pay back.
  • Spend real time with your lender. The options right now (buydowns, ARMs, jumbo programs, down payment help) are worth a full conversation, not a 20-minute call.
  • Don’t go too low. Some buyers see a concession advertised and come in $30,000 to $60,000 under asking and still want money back. That usually ends the conversation. Make a strong, fair offer and negotiate from there.
  • Watch for wire fraud. Scammers get busier in slow markets and around the holidays. Always verify wiring instructions by phone with your title company before you send a dime.

The bottom line

This isn’t a crash. It’s a market catching its breath after a long run. If you’re thinking about a move, or just curious what your home is worth today, give me a call. I’m always happy to talk it through.

Happy Thanksgiving – enjoy time with your family and friends!

March 2026 Market Update

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Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

Key Trends Shaping the Northern Virginia Housing Market

The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to show strong momentum as we move through March. Buyer demand remains high, especially for homes that are priced well and show nicely. Just last week, we listed a home on a Friday and received two offers by Sunday. Over the weekend, more than 50 people attended two open houses, and the property had 10 private showings. That kind of activity tells us buyers are serious, prepared, and actively searching for homes that fit their lifestyle and long-term plans.

We’re also seeing movement from current homeowners. While many people have been hesitant to sell because they’re locked into lower interest rates from previous years, more sellers are realizing they don’t want to stay put forever. Life changes – growing families, job changes, downsizing, or simply wanting a different space – are motivating people to make moves despite higher rates than we saw a few years ago. Because of this, we don’t anticipate a major slowdown in the market anytime soon.

With strong demand and a limited number of homes for sale, prices are likely to continue trending upward. Inventory remains tight, so competition remains a reality for buyers. The positive news is that interest rates are currently under 6% as of this writing, which is still historically reasonable and has helped keep buyers engaged and confident in moving forward.

From an economic standpoint, we’re watching inflation closely. Recent inflation data suggest the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the near future. Employment trends – such as job creation and job losses – are another key indicator of economic health. At the moment, these factors appear to be balancing each other out, which supports a relatively stable outlook. While unexpected changes can always happen, there’s no strong signal pointing to dramatic rate shifts right now.

On a broader scale, global events and ongoing conflicts can impact financial markets and consumer confidence, which is why we continue to take an “eyes wide open” approach. Staying informed and making thoughtful, well-timed decisions is especially important in a market influenced by both local and global factors.

Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the market, understanding these trends can help you make smart decisions. If you have questions about how any of this affects your personal situation, I’m always happy to help. Don’t hesitate to reach out, and happy St. Patrick’s Day! ☘️

August 2025 Market Update

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Is the Northern Virginia real estate market frozen? The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to move through one of the most peculiar periods in recent memory – one defined by contradiction, hesitation, and uncertainty. Why, you may ask? There are several factors at play: the economy, federal government layoffs impacting the entire region, higher-than-expected interest rates for an extended period, and buyer apathy. While summer typically brings more energy to the housing market, in recent years, this year feels… stuck.

Inventory remains flat. The number of homes coming to the market isn’t increasing in any meaningful way, and houses are staying on the market longer. We’re hovering at very low inventory levels, and yet homes aren’t selling as quickly as you might expect with a limited supply. Why? Because sales volume is stagnant, leaving both buyers and sellers confused about their next steps.

Uncertainty appears to be the new normal. Let’s break down the reasons discussed above further.

A major driver of this slowdown is the current economic climate. Consumers are wary. Whether it’s concerns about inflation, job market fluctuations, or the broader macroeconomic outlook, many potential buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for some clarity. Unfortunately, the only thing that seems consistent lately is unpredictability.

Interest rates are the elephant in the room. Higher-than-expected interest rates continue to weigh heavily on both buyers and sellers. For buyers, mortgage payments are significantly more expensive than they were just 18 months ago. For sellers, the idea of trading in a 3% mortgage for something north of 7% is a hard pill to swallow. As a result, homeowners are opting to “wait it out,” which is further contributing to the inventory standstill.

All this being said, we are experiencing a tale of two markets, which is perhaps the most baffling aspect of this market: its inconsistency. Why? On the one hand, we’re seeing well-located, properly priced, turnkey homes receive multiple offers—sometimes six or seven—within days of hitting the market. These homes continue to generate excitement and competition. On the other hand, we’re seeing some listings sit for weeks, sometimes going days without a single showing, or they are receiving lowball offers that don’t reflect the home’s value.

What’s the difference? Often, it’s the small things: pricing strategy, presentation, marketing, or the home’s location. Buyers today are more discerning, cautious, and highly sensitive to perceived value. They are willing to pay a premium, but only when they see clear justification for doing so.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers? If you’re a buyer, be aware that opportunities still exist, but patience is crucial. Be prepared to act quickly on the right home, but also understand that not every property will be a bidding war. In some cases, you may be able to negotiate. 

If you’re a seller, strategy is everything right now. This is not the market to “test the waters” with aspirational pricing. Homes that are priced correctly and show well will sell – often quickly. Those that miss the mark risk being ignored entirely.

Looking ahead, until there’s more certainty around interest rates or economic stability, we expect the market to remain uneven and choppy. Real estate is hyper-local, and even within Northern Virginia, we’re seeing pockets of high demand alongside areas that are lagging behind.

Now more than ever, experience and strategy matter. If you’re considering buying or selling, let’s discuss how to navigate this unpredictable market with confidence and clarity.

June 2025 Market Update

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Will the real estate market hit the summertime blues…or bounce back?

As we roll into the summer season, many homeowners and buyers alike are asking the same question: Will the real estate market slow down as it usually does this time of year… or are we gearing up for a late-season rebound?

Right now, we’re seeing a shift — one that’s been building gradually but feels like it came on fast. Sales activity is slowing down, interest rates are continuing to rise, and mortgage applications have dipped over the past few weeks. Buyers are taking a more cautious, wait-and-see approach, watching not only where interest rates are headed but also where home prices might land.

We are firmly in an interest rate–driven market. When rates go up, buyer demand tends to go down, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now. Homes that may have sold in a matter of days earlier this year are now taking a little longer. In some cases, sellers are adjusting prices or offering incentives to attract serious buyers. There’s no panic — just a noticeable softening.This kind of quick market shift isn’t new. We’ve seen it before, especially since the pandemic. One moment, things are quiet. Next, homes are flying off the market. The real estate market has become increasingly sensitive to economic news, interest rate changes, and shifts in consumer confidence than ever before.

Historically, the summer months — especially July and August — bring a seasonal slowdown. People are traveling, kids are out of school, and real estate often takes a backseat to summer fun. But come September, activity usually picks up again. Whether that holds true this year will largely depend on interest rates.

If rates stabilize or drop, we could see more buyers re-enter the market. If they continue to rise, the current pause may last a little longer. Either way, we expect things to stay dynamic — and keeping a close eye on these trends will be important for both buyers and sellers.

Bottom line? Real estate is always moving, even when it slows. If you’re considering making a move this summer or fall, give me a call, let’s talk strategy. The more you understand the market, the better positioned you’ll be to make smart decisions. Happy Summer!

January 2025 Market Update | Another Year in the Books – Reflecting on 2024 and Looking Ahead to 2025

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Another year has come and gone, and what a year it was! So much happened—and some things didn’t happen as predicted—that it was a whirlwind for the real estate industry. The most significant changes came with updates to our industry practices, particularly regarding commissions.

One major shift was that commissions are no longer allowed to be published in MLS systems or websites connected to them. Additionally, buyers and agents are now required to sign an Exclusive Right to Represent Buyer Agreement before viewing homes. While this has been the law in Virginia since 2012, it’s now more crucial than ever to determine how an agent’s commission will be paid if it isn’t negotiated within the contract. On the bright side, these changes have brought greater transparency to how real estate professionals are compensated.

What Didn’t Change in 2024?

Despite widespread predictions, interest rates did not fall as expected. Many anticipated rates would dip into the mid-5% range, but they stayed elevated throughout the year, even reaching the mid-7% range. This kept many homeowners from selling, resulting in continued low inventory instead of the expected rise in homes for sale.

As a result, sales remained flat compared to 2023 and may even show a slight decrease when final numbers come in. Similarly, while some forecasted a drop—or even a “crash”—in home prices, the opposite occurred. Prices increased, which added to the wealth of homeowners. However, rising prices and rates made affordability a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.

Another area where expectations fell short was regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. While many predicted six cuts in 2024, there were only three. I felt six was ambitious, so I predicted three, which turned out to be correct.

What’s Ahead in 2025?

Here are my predictions for the coming year:

  • Mortgage rates will remain volatile but slightly lower by year-end, likely in the high 5% to low 6% range.
  • Inventory levels will remain low but improve slightly as more baby boomers age in place and homeowners stay “rate locked” in their current mortgages.
  • Home prices will continue to rise due to low inventory and strong demand.
  • Affordability will remain a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.
  • The Fed will cut rates three times, fewer than predicted earlier.
  • Fewer agents will remain in the business due to declining transactions and commission compression.
  • Homeowner’s insurance rates will rise due to the impact of natural disasters, making insurance harder to secure in some areas.
  • Unemployment will increase slightly but remain below 5%, leading to a softer labor market.
  • Inflation should stay manageable, in the range of 2.5–3%, supported by Fed actions and economic conditions.
  • Now more than ever, having a Realtor® represent you is critical to navigating the evolving real estate landscape.

As we step into 2025, it’s clear that the real estate market will continue to present its challenges, but with the right guidance, opportunities abound. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply understand how these changes affect you, I’m here to help. Together, we can navigate this ever-changing market with confidence.

Here’s to a prosperous and fulfilling 2025 — Happy New Year!

December 2021 Market Update

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It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year….

Wow, it is the holiday season already! This year has gone by so fast. I hope you had a great time with your family over Thanksgiving and continue to enjoy this month full of fun for the upcoming holidays and into the New Year.

As I run into family and friends at neighborhood events and gatherings, the conversation frequently turns to the real estate market. The most common question I am asked is, “how is the market today?” My latest response is a good one; from a historical perspective, it’s insane (in my opinion)! Inventory of homes for sale in our area has dropped to only 1,886 homes for sale for the first time during this time of year. Additionally, new sales contracts written the previous seven days were the second-highest ever; only 2020 had more contracts written.

Typically, approximately 415-460 contracts are written during Thanksgiving week; we had 653 this year! Demand continues to outpace the supply by a wide margin. So, this leads me to the next question I usually get asked, “should I sell my house during the holidays?” My answer remains; it depends. If you really need to sell, now is a great time as inventory levels are low and demand is high. Houses typically “look” festive this time of year which is an added staging bonus.

The important aspect to keep in mind is that pricing still needs to be on point for a house to sell, even in the environment we are currently experiencing. If you are looking to “cash-out” and take advantage of the market, now is not the best time to sell as buyers are still being very selective when choosing a home, and price is always high on the list along with condition. This is not the time of year to push prices. If you want people coming through during the holidays, it is 100% up to you. So, if you are considering a move now or in the future, please call me.  We can get you positioned for success.

Have a great holiday season with your family and friends!

June 2021 Market Update

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Here is the update on the crazy Northern Virginia real estate market…round and round and round it goes, where it stops, no one knows. The interesting thing is the market has shifted, and it happened quickly. Was it mortgage interest rates rising so high it stopped people from buying? No. Was it a flood of foreclosures and short sales hitting the market? No. Was it a pricing bubble that popped and collapsed home prices? No. Was it regular sales coming on the market giving buyers more choices? No.

So, what has caused the shift in the market?  First, the frenzied market we experienced from mid-January through early May could not be sustained. We were experiencing 50-70 showings in only one or two days and contract numbers in the high teens to low twenties on houses we put on the market.  Additionally, we saw prices escalate tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands above list price, with buyers waiving everything to “get” a home. It was a stressful time for everyone involved – buyers, sellers, and Realtors alike.

Now, we are seeing 5-15 showings in an entire weekend, and we are receiving between one and five offers. Still excellent numbers historically, but it is, in a different way, causing stress on sellers. The expectations of sellers are what they “heard,” “saw,” or “read” about the market two months ago or more – not recent facts. Well, the market shifts on a dime with no real rhyme or reason. The one thing I feel has put a damper on the market is “buyer fatigue.” Buyers had gone out, written contracts, and lost out on many houses. They wrote what they perceived to be the perfect contract and were beat out by someone who had to have the home and irrationally made an offer the seller couldn’t refuse. The conversations I am having now with buyers and agents are – oh, they have three offers? Someone will pay too much; I don’t want to waste my time. Therefore, we are now seeing fewer offers; still, great offers – above list price and waiving contingencies, but the number of contracts and showings are just down. So, if you are a seller or considering selling, your house will sell; just realize the market is different today, not bad, simply different. On the other hand, if you are a buyer, don’t give up; fewer people competing for homes mean you have a better shot at getting one now than a few short months ago. We can help you determine your best course of action, whether buying or selling, so call us to learn more!

Have a great summer!

April 2021 Market Update

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The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to amaze me. Inventory levels remain extremely low, demand remains extraordinarily high, and this is still occurring even though rates have increased slightly over the last few weeks. I do not believe this will change or slow down any time in the near future. The level of demand is just too high.

We continue to see multiple contract situations as the new normal throughout much of Northern Virginia. It is common to see all contingencies being removed and prices set way above the original list price in these situations. In early March, I wrote a contract on a house in North Arlington that was listed for $935,000. It was a 4-bedroom, 3-bath home, and just 1,280 square feet. The offer was cash, close in two weeks with no contingencies, and my buyer offered $1,026,000. According to the listing agent, we were not even close! One of the 23 received offers went up to $1,081,000. Insane! This leaves 22 other active buyers still looking to own in that price point in Arlington – so again, I don’t see this market slowing any time soon. All the being said, the condo market is the only anomaly as most condos are sitting on the market.

So, what is going to happen is what I am often asked. My belief is that inventory will remain low for the foreseeable future as people have purchased or refinanced at exceptionally low rates. As rates increase, there will be little, if any, motivation to move. If someone has a $500,000 mortgage with an interest rate of 2.75%, what will motivate them to move to a home with a $750,000 mortgage at 4% or even higher? I think this is what will stagnate inventory levels over the next few years. People will only move if there is a genuine need to do so – like marriage, kids, schools, job, divorce, death, etc.

Speaking about interest rates, they have inched above 3% for the first time in several months, but please keep this in mind, they are still below where they were this same time last year and are still below historical lows mortgages. Earlier I mentioned rates at 4% or higher; I don’t believe we will be there for some time, so no need to worry about this happening. I foresee we will be in the low to mid 3’s for the remainder of the year.

As always, I am more than happy to speak with you about your situation in more detail as each situation is unique and personal.

Happy Spring!

March 2021 Market Update

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It’s hard to believe that one year has passed since our world changed with the Pandemic. There have been so many changes in our daily routines, the way we interact with each other, how we conduct business, and so much more. The hardest part for many of us was that we lost loved ones or could not visit them due to restrictions. Let’s hope this all changes soon with the vaccine. 

As far as the real estate world goes, it has remained resilient and has even thrived. To some, it may be hard to believe, but true. Historically low-interest rates, crazy low inventory levels, and high demand resulted in a frenzied market over the last year. Housing gained over $3.1 Trillion in equity in 2020 as prices escalated in almost every market around the country. We are only a little over two months into 2021, and we continue to see a strong housing market. Inventory remains extremely low, rates have ticked up slightly but are still very attractive, and buyer demand remains very robust. The biggest concern remains the low inventory. We continue to see multiple offer situations in all price ranges throughout Northern Virginia. Many times, contracts are being submitted without the buyers even seeing the home! Crazy but true. Buyers are conducting pre-offer home inspections, waiving all contingencies, and are bidding 10-13% over the list price to get into a home. I believe we will be in this type of market for the next few years. Unfortunately for buyers, I don’t see a flood of houses coming on the market to cover the demand that is out there today.  Interest rates will remain low to help keep the market moving. We continue to have low unemployment relative to other parts of the country, so people are continuing to relocate to our area. Couple all of this with the Millennials entering the market as home buyers; it’s quite the tsunami.

If you are considering selling or buying a home, it is more critical today than ever to have a professional representing you. Expert negotiation skills and market knowledge are essential in this aggressive market. Please feel free to call me to review your situation in more detail or allow us to help someone you know. I am always happy to help.

I am looking forward to warmer weather and more hours of daylight, and I hope you are too.  Happy Spring!

February 2021 Market Update

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Again, I have said it before, and I will repeat it, inventory levels on homes for sale in Northern Virginia are critically low! We currently have just 1,701 homes for sale in all of the counties we serve in Northern Virginia. The amazing fact is the number of condos that are currently for sale – 792 – which represents just under 50% of the total inventory. Condos typically do not reflect nearly 50% of the inventory levels … more on this later. 

Continuing with the numbers; there are only 646 single family homes currently on the market. Are you kidding me? There are only 235 townhouses total, again, WOW! Do you know what this means? The chances of multiple contract situations are possible on virtually every home on the market. We have had as many as 30 contracts submitted on one house in Gainesville priced at $635,000. It escalated above $700,000. We had another home in Aldie that had 78 showings and 62 visitors at the open house. This one was priced at $772,000 that had 21 offers and escalated to $831,700. It is insane – I cannot think of another word to describe it. 

A question I am frequently asked is when will it end? I think it will be a long time, as I believe it will be rate driven, and rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. Once rates rise to the 4 or 5% range, we will see a slowdown in contracts/purchasers, but not an inventory increase. Another question is, when will buyer burnout take them out of the market? My answer: it depends as this is and has always been an individual question. I have heard about prospective buyers writing as many as 15 contracts (on different homes) and still in the fight, while others are not even entering the market because of these “bidding” war situations. Typically, buyers will write until they win a bid on a property.  Usually, in a market like this, it has been between 3-5 times in my experience. 

One more question I hear is how do I buy if I must sell my house first? This one is more complicated, but I can give you details if you are interested. We have nine ways to make this work!

If you or someone you know would like to discuss their situation with me in more detail, whether it is purchasing or selling a home, please feel free to call me.

Have a Happy Valentine’s Day!!