Heading Into Fall

As we head into the fall real estate market, Northern Virginia is looking very different than it has over the past several years. August brought a noticeable slowdown in sales activity, while the supply of homes for sale climbed to approximately 2.45 months. To put that into perspective, we haven’t seen inventory around the 2½-month mark since early 2017. August also marked the first year-over-year decline in home sales since November 2025, meaning fewer homes sold this August than during the same month last year. While that level of inventory is still below what would traditionally be considered a balanced market, buyers now have more choices, more breathing room and less urgency than they have had in recent years.

We’re seeing that shift play out in several ways. Homes are generally taking longer to sell, price reductions are becoming more common, and some sellers are extending their listings rather than receiving an immediate offer. There is activity in the market, but it is not as robust as what we experienced during the pandemic years. That makes pricing, condition and presentation more important than ever for sellers, while buyers may find more opportunity to negotiate.

One of the biggest factors influencing the fall market will continue to be mortgage rates. Rates remain in the upper-6% range, and unlike this time last year, when rates were trending downward heading into fall, there is now more uncertainty surrounding where rates go next. Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations and Treasury yields can all influence mortgage rates, while broader pressures such as geopolitical tensions involving Iran, tariffs and concerns surrounding the job market can also affect consumer confidence and borrowing costs.

Historically, Northern Virginia often experiences another increase in real estate activity after Labor Day, so we’ll be watching closely to see whether that traditional fall bump develops this year. The opportunity is still there, but this is a market that requires strategy. Sellers need to price realistically from the beginning, and buyers should understand that increased inventory may create opportunities that simply haven’t existed over the past few years.

If you’re considering buying or selling this fall, don’t rely on national headlines alone. Real estate remains incredibly local, and conditions can vary dramatically by neighborhood, price point and property type, let’s talk about what these changes mean for you.