Real Estate

November 2025 Market Update

Leave a comment

I’ve heard people say the market is “stuck in the mud.” Personally, I think we’re just treading water. Sales are stagnant, inventory continues to decline, yet rates are sitting near three-year lows. There’s still considerable uncertainty in the economy and job market. With the government shutdown, layoffs at UPS, AWS, GM, and even Target, and that uncertainty is keeping people on the sidelines.

As I’ve mentioned before, our “seasonal slowdown” started earlier than usual this year, back in September. Normally, we don’t see it until October or November. The hope now is that the Fed’s recent rate cut gives things a little spark — perhaps boosting the stock market, improving consumer confidence, and getting people moving again. What’s interesting is that consumer confidence didn’t go down this month, which honestly surprised me. It stayed level, which, given everything happening, is a small win.

As we move into the holiday season and the traditional slowdown, my concern is that we don’t end up with a double dip — lower sales and even lower inventory. If that does happen, though, there will still be opportunities. Every market shift creates them. If you’d like to discuss what that might look like for your situation, please give me a call; I’m happy to walk you through different strategies.

Now, let’s talk about something that’s been bugging me a bit lately: I keep hearing people say we’re in a buyer’s market. We are not in a buyer’s market. Not even close. Just because we’re seeing some contingencies in contracts doesn’t make it a buyer’s market — it makes it a balanced market. Not every deal even has contingencies, and 47% of sales are at or above list price.  When the numbers show homes are selling for an average of 99.5% of the original list price and houses are on the market for just 27 days on average, it’s hard to argue that buyers are in control.  

Here’s the reality — about 77% of REALTORS have been licensed for less than 15 years, and 51% of all agents have been in the business less than 5 years. Therefore, they have never seen a true buyer’s market or experienced what one is. A real buyer’s market means an excess of inventory, price drops, and homes sitting on the market for months. That’s not what we’re seeing today, by a wide margin, as previously mentioned.

More than ever, who you work with matters. Experience counts. Knowledge counts. Understanding how to navigate through uncertainty counts. If you’d like to discuss your next move, whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, let’s connect.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

October 2025 Market Update

Leave a comment

What’s Really Happening with Interest Rates and Housing

The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates by a quarter of a point. While this was big news in the financial world, it’s important to understand what it really means for the housing market. A common misconception is that when the Fed reduces rates, mortgage rates will automatically come down. In reality, that isn’t always the case.

Here’s why: mortgage lenders usually anticipate the Fed’s moves and adjust their rates ahead of time. That’s exactly what happened this time. Mortgage rates had already dipped before the Fed made its announcement. Then, when inflation numbers came in higher than expected, it rattled the economy, and mortgage rates actually rose again. In recent weeks, we’ve seen rates fluctuate – rising, falling, and then rising again – making it feel like a rollercoaster ride for anyone watching closely.

This uncertainty has created a very dynamic housing market. On the one hand, some homes are still receiving multiple offers, but these situations are happening less frequently. On the other hand, more homes are sitting on the market longer, and we’re even seeing buyers successfully negotiate contingencies into their contracts again – something that wasn’t very common during the ultra-competitive years of 2020–2022.

The pace of sales is another concern. August sales were the lowest we’ve seen in three decades. If the slowdown continues, total home sales for the year could fall back to levels not seen since the 1990s. That’s a significant shift and something we’ll be watching closely.

If you’re considering selling, it’s essential to understand what today’s buyers expect. Homes need to be priced competitively, as overpricing will only cause them to sit on the market. Presentation is equally important – buyers want to see properties that are fresh, clean, and move-in ready. Staging can also make a big difference by highlighting a home’s best features and creating a strong first impression. Finally, accessibility matters; the easier it is for buyers to view your home, the better your chances of receiving an offer.

For buyers, the current market offers some unique opportunities. With homes staying on the market longer, there’s more room to negotiate terms, include contingencies, and take a little extra time to make thoughtful decisions, something we haven’t seen much of in the fast-paced markets of the past few years.

Adding to the uncertainty, the federal government shutdown began on October 1st. Right now, no one knows how long it will last. A short shutdown may not have a significant impact, but if it drags on, it could slow down certain aspects of the real estate process – such as mortgage underwriting, flood insurance, and even some verifications tied to government agencies. This could create delays for both buyers and sellers.

The real estate market is adjusting, and while we haven’t quite found our new “normal,” one thing remains true: preparation and strategy matter. Whether you’re buying or selling, the best advantage you can have is knowledge and guidance.

If you’re considering making a move, let’s talk. I’d be happy to walk you through what’s happening right now, explain how it impacts your situation, and outline the steps you can take to achieve your goals. Give me a call, I’m here to help you navigate this market with confidence.

July 2025 Market Update

Leave a comment

What’s Really Happening in Real Estate?

We’re officially in the dog days of summer, and while it may feel like things are heating up, the real estate market (and the headlines surrounding it) can be a little confusing right now.

There’s been an ongoing tug-of-war at the national level between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump over interest rate policy. Many experts expected multiple rate cuts this year, but so far, we haven’t seen any. The Fed has held steady in recent meetings and has hinted that the earliest possible rate drop could come in September, if at all.

Why the hesitation? Powell is focused on inflation, closely monitoring economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). While inflation has ticked up slightly, it remains near the range the Fed originally targeted. Still, concerns about potential increases — especially due to tariffs and global market shifts — have kept the Fed cautious. This ongoing debate has even drawn in other political voices, making the topic a hot one this summer.

On the bright side, mortgage rates have been inching down slowly, which is great news for buyers. That said, inventory remains tight, especially here in Northern Virginia. Over the past two weeks, the region has only added about 98 new listings. That’s far from a surge. While condos are sitting a little longer on the market, well-priced single-family homes in good condition and desirable locations are still attracting multiple offers.

Yes, days on market have increased slightly — which is normal for this time of year — but demand is still very much present. Sellers should remain patient, and buyers should be prepared to act quickly if they find the right home. Don’t let media headlines mislead you — real estate isn’t just local; it’s hyper-local. Certain zip codes and price points are moving at different paces.

Navigating this market can be challenging without a knowledgeable guide. Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, the best strategy is to work with a trusted real estate advisor who understands the local trends and nuances.

If you have questions about what this market means for your goals — or if you’re wondering if now is the right time to make a move — I’m here to help.

May 2025 Market Update

Leave a comment

Uncertainty Creates Opportunity

As we head into the heart of the spring market, one thing is clear — uncertainty is everywhere. With talks of tariffs being paused and reevaluated, and interest rates fluctuating more than usual, many buyers and sellers are left wondering what’s next. At the time of writing, mortgage rates are in the high 6% range. While that’s still lower than where we started the year and below where we were this time last year, it’s enough volatility to make some buyers hesitate. The market feels like it’s holding its breath, waiting to see where things land — but waiting too long can mean missing out.

Here’s the reality: waiting for prices to drop may not be the best strategy. Despite the shifting economy, home prices continue to rise in many areas due to low inventory and strong demand. Buyers who wait may find themselves paying more down the line, not less. Historically, trying to “time the market” rarely works as well as having a sound plan and being prepared to act when the right home appears.

For sellers, well-prepared homes are still commanding attention. When our clients follow expert guidance—staging their homes, making necessary improvements, and using professional photography and marketing — we’re seeing strong results. In fact, many of these listings are receiving multiple showings and competitive offers shortly after hitting the market. Presentation, pricing, and positioning remain the winning formula in today’s market.

Whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, it’s never been more important to have a trusted real estate advisor by your side. The right strategy, informed by current market data and local expertise, can make all the difference. We’re here to guide you through the uncertainty and help you make the most informed decisions possible.

Have questions or ready to make a move? We’re here to help. Wishing you and your family a safe and happy Memorial Day! And remember — opportunity often hides in uncertain times.

April 2025 Market Update

Leave a comment

Spring Has Sprung in the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

The spring market is officially in full bloom — and things are heating up! We’re seeing more homes hit the market, which is a welcome change because buyer demand remains incredibly strong in our area. That means more people are actively looking to buy, and they’re jumping at the right homes when they hit the market.

Compared to this time last year, more homes are selling — and they’re selling faster. Although inventory is increasing, we still have fewer homes available than many buyers would like. In real estate terms, we refer to this as a low “month’s supply” of inventory, which simply means there aren’t quite enough homes to go around. When we look at the past five years, this year’s numbers are tracking closely with average sales, which is a good sign of market health and stability.

It’s worth noting that, despite having two huge years in 2021 and 2022, the market continues to show strength today. Sellers are still seeing solid returns, and buyers, especially in hot areas, are having to move quickly and often compete to win the home they want.

In fact, one recent property we made an offer on sold for nearly $300,000 over its list price! That shows just how competitive it can be in certain neighborhoods. Arlington, in particular, remains a strong market with high sales prices, significant buyer interest, and an increasing number of showings being scheduled on a weekly basis.

So, what does this all mean? While some might expect the market to bounce around like a March Madness basketball, what we’re seeing is a steady climb — more like the consistent goal-scoring power of Alex Ovechkin (if you know, you know).

If you’re thinking about buying or selling or just want to know what’s happening in your neighborhood, I’m here to help. Feel free to reach out; I’d love to chat.

Wishing you a joyful and peaceful Easter!

March 2025 Market Update

Leave a comment

The Northern Virginia Real Estate Market: Strong and Steady This Spring

There’s been a lot of chatter about the Northern Virginia real estate market, but much of it is more noise than reality. Despite what you may hear, our market remains strong, and opportunities are plentiful for both buyers and sellers.

Low Inventory & Seasonal Trends
We continue to experience very low inventory, meaning there are fewer homes available for sale than usual. While we are seeing a slight increase in inventory, this is a normal seasonal trend. Every year, as we move past Valentine’s Day, more homes traditionally come on the market. It’s not a sign of trouble—it’s simply the natural rhythm of real estate.

The slight uptick in inventory is expected and typical for this time of year. Sellers often take advantage of the spring season to list their homes, leading to more choices for buyers. However, demand remains strong, keeping the market competitive. Properly priced and well-presented homes continue to attract attention and offers, often within days of hitting the market.

There’s been speculation that potential government layoffs might negatively impact the housing market. However, any real impact would likely be delayed. Typically, when people lose their jobs, they focus on finding new employment rather than making immediate changes to their housing situation. Most homeowners understand the challenges of selling their home without a clear plan, as renting or buying a new home without stable employment is not an easy feat. As a result, many will choose to stay put, keeping the housing supply tight.

We’re looking forward to a strong spring market. Open houses are bustling with activity, and we continue to see homes selling quickly when they are priced right and in good condition. The market remains price-sensitive, and while well-positioned homes are snapped up, those priced a bit too high may sit longer and require price adjustments. The strategy of pushing prices higher is not as effective in today’s environment.

Mortgage rates have been a bright spot, trending down for five consecutive weeks. This easing of rates could bring more buyers into the market, boosting demand even further. It’s a promising sign that the market is stabilizing and that now could be a great time to make a move.

Navigating the real estate market can be complex, but you don’t have to do it alone. If you have any questions about the market or are curious about your home’s current value, I’m here to help. Wishing you all the luck of the Irish and a fantastic spring season!

February 2025 Market Update

Leave a comment

The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to be full of surprises. Looking back at 2023, home sales in our region outpaced expectations, despite the challenges posed by higher interest rates. Many predicted rates would decrease, leading to increased sales. However, as rates remained elevated, the market didn’t slow down in Northern Virginia the way it did in other parts of the country.

Nationally, 2024 started with home sales dipping below 4 million — the lowest since 1995 and even lower than in 2023. However, projections indicate a modest rebound of about 2% this year, pushing sales back above the 4 million mark. Mortgage rates, which spent much of the past year above 7%, have recently settled in the mid-6% range. While some forecasts suggest rates may decrease, they are expected to remain between 6-7% for the foreseeable future.

Beyond interest rates, other factors could impact our housing market. Changes in administration policies, trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico, and potential tariffs could influence the cost of new construction of new homes, particularly as they relate to lumber and building materials. In addition, how will recent resignations impact the Northern Virginia real estate market? While widespread resignations don’t seem likely in many cases, the push for employees to return to the office could influence housing decisions. Some may choose to move closer to their workplace, while others might seek new job opportunities elsewhere, leading to shifts in housing demand across the region. These discussions and corporate restructuring may further shape the market, as professionals weigh the benefits of relocating for career stability or exploring opportunities in different areas.

With so many moving pieces in today’s market, having the right guidance is more important than ever. While the market has been challenging over the past two years, we’re seeing growing confidence among buyers and sellers. Many are adjusting to today’s interest rates, recognizing that real estate remains a solid long-term investment. The key to success in this market is understanding the trends, staying informed, and working with an experienced real estate professional who can help you navigate the complexities with confidence.

If you’d like to discuss your real estate goals, have any questions or want to discuss how these market changes might affect your plans, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’d love to help — give me a call anytime!

January 2025 Market Update | Another Year in the Books – Reflecting on 2024 and Looking Ahead to 2025

Leave a comment

Another year has come and gone, and what a year it was! So much happened—and some things didn’t happen as predicted—that it was a whirlwind for the real estate industry. The most significant changes came with updates to our industry practices, particularly regarding commissions.

One major shift was that commissions are no longer allowed to be published in MLS systems or websites connected to them. Additionally, buyers and agents are now required to sign an Exclusive Right to Represent Buyer Agreement before viewing homes. While this has been the law in Virginia since 2012, it’s now more crucial than ever to determine how an agent’s commission will be paid if it isn’t negotiated within the contract. On the bright side, these changes have brought greater transparency to how real estate professionals are compensated.

What Didn’t Change in 2024?

Despite widespread predictions, interest rates did not fall as expected. Many anticipated rates would dip into the mid-5% range, but they stayed elevated throughout the year, even reaching the mid-7% range. This kept many homeowners from selling, resulting in continued low inventory instead of the expected rise in homes for sale.

As a result, sales remained flat compared to 2023 and may even show a slight decrease when final numbers come in. Similarly, while some forecasted a drop—or even a “crash”—in home prices, the opposite occurred. Prices increased, which added to the wealth of homeowners. However, rising prices and rates made affordability a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.

Another area where expectations fell short was regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. While many predicted six cuts in 2024, there were only three. I felt six was ambitious, so I predicted three, which turned out to be correct.

What’s Ahead in 2025?

Here are my predictions for the coming year:

  • Mortgage rates will remain volatile but slightly lower by year-end, likely in the high 5% to low 6% range.
  • Inventory levels will remain low but improve slightly as more baby boomers age in place and homeowners stay “rate locked” in their current mortgages.
  • Home prices will continue to rise due to low inventory and strong demand.
  • Affordability will remain a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.
  • The Fed will cut rates three times, fewer than predicted earlier.
  • Fewer agents will remain in the business due to declining transactions and commission compression.
  • Homeowner’s insurance rates will rise due to the impact of natural disasters, making insurance harder to secure in some areas.
  • Unemployment will increase slightly but remain below 5%, leading to a softer labor market.
  • Inflation should stay manageable, in the range of 2.5–3%, supported by Fed actions and economic conditions.
  • Now more than ever, having a Realtor® represent you is critical to navigating the evolving real estate landscape.

As we step into 2025, it’s clear that the real estate market will continue to present its challenges, but with the right guidance, opportunities abound. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply understand how these changes affect you, I’m here to help. Together, we can navigate this ever-changing market with confidence.

Here’s to a prosperous and fulfilling 2025 — Happy New Year!

October 2024 Market Update | Why Fall 2024 is Perfect for Buying or Selling Your Home

Leave a comment

I often get asked whether now is a good time to buy or sell a home, so let’s look at each scenario and break it down.

If you’re thinking about selling, consider the reasons behind your move. Is it for a job relocation? Are you retiring or needing more (or less) space? Maybe a life change, like marriage or a family transition, has prompted you to think about selling. If you’re motivated by one of these reasons, now is a great time to sell.

Why? Because inventory levels are low, which means less competition for you as a seller. Plus, interest rates are currently at their lowest point in two years, so buyers are out there looking! If your home is priced well and in good condition, you’re in a strong position to sell. And with fall in full swing, buyers are eager to make a move before the holidays. It’s a time when people are focused on settling in before winter, which can make for motivated and serious buyers. If you’re ready, this season offers a perfect window of opportunity to sell your home.

Fall is often considered a sweet spot in real estate. The weather is cooler, making it more comfortable for buyers to view homes, and the natural beauty of fall can showcase your home in its best light. The changing leaves, cozy atmosphere, and crisp air help buyers picture themselves settling into a new space before the holiday season kicks off. Plus, homes tend to look even more inviting with festive fall décor, making them easier to envision as a place for family gatherings and celebrations. Selling in the fall allows you to tap into buyers’ desire to find a home and get settled before the hustle and bustle of the holidays.

For buyers, fall is also a fantastic time to make your move. Interest rates have dropped, and there are homes available in a variety of price ranges and locations. The demand is strong, and if rates dip further, it could lead to even more competition, making it harder to find the right home. Prices are still rising, though at a slower pace, so waiting could mean paying more down the road. Fall also offers a cozy, beautiful backdrop for house hunting—imagine finding your dream home before Thanksgiving or the first frost! If you find a home that fits your needs, is in the right location, and works with your budget, now is the time to act! Remember, if rates fall, you can always refinance later. As the saying goes, “Don’t wait to buy real estate; buy real estate and wait.”

If you have any questions or want to discuss your situation further, feel free to reach out today. Let’s make this fall season the perfect time for you to achieve your real estate goals!

August 2024 Market Update

Leave a comment

As we enter August, the real estate market isn’t as hot as the weather we’ve been experiencing this year. Despite this, it remains a strong seller’s market, though the intensity has cooled slightly compared to earlier in the year. You may recall from previous newsletters that we saw sight-unseen offers significantly above the list price and multiple offers waiving all contingencies. While sight-unseen offers have become less common, we still see multiple offers, though it may now be only two or three rather than five to ten. Additionally, buyers are now able to negotiate contingencies, which I believe is a positive development.

With kids heading back to school soon, families might consider moves aligning with school district boundaries. This time of year often prompts discussions about relocating to be closer to schools or settling into a new area before the academic year kicks off. Whether you’re contemplating a move or thinking about selling, this seasonal transition can influence housing decisions for many families.

Looking ahead, there are several factors that might influence the market this August. First, Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race and Kamala Harris, now the Democratic nominee to run against Donald Trump could affect buyers’ decisions. We’ll have to watch how this impacts sales trends compared to previous years. Despite inflation dropping to 3%, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has opted not to lower the Fed rate, which could have future implications. There is speculation about a potential rate cut in September, followed by additional cuts in November and December. While this seems aggressive, we will see how it unfolds. Mortgage rates did decrease steadily in July, now standing in the high 6% range, but this didn’t result in a surge of sales, which was unexpected. It might be attributed to the seasonal slowdown we typically see in the summer months, especially now that we are past the pandemic period.

I will provide updates on August’s sales next month, so stay tuned for more information. Additionally, mid-August brings changes in how buyer agent compensation is advertised, which could impact sales, buyer representation, and seller decisions regarding compensating buyer agents. These are indeed interesting times, and I will keep you informed about these developments.

As always, I am here as a resource for you, whether you are considering selling or buying. Feel free to reach out to discuss your situation in more detail. Additionally, if you purchased a home in the last year, now might be a good time to refinance your loan! Contact me to discuss your interest rate options. Stay cool!