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February 2025 Market Update

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The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to be full of surprises. Looking back at 2023, home sales in our region outpaced expectations, despite the challenges posed by higher interest rates. Many predicted rates would decrease, leading to increased sales. However, as rates remained elevated, the market didn’t slow down in Northern Virginia the way it did in other parts of the country.

Nationally, 2024 started with home sales dipping below 4 million — the lowest since 1995 and even lower than in 2023. However, projections indicate a modest rebound of about 2% this year, pushing sales back above the 4 million mark. Mortgage rates, which spent much of the past year above 7%, have recently settled in the mid-6% range. While some forecasts suggest rates may decrease, they are expected to remain between 6-7% for the foreseeable future.

Beyond interest rates, other factors could impact our housing market. Changes in administration policies, trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico, and potential tariffs could influence the cost of new construction of new homes, particularly as they relate to lumber and building materials. In addition, how will recent resignations impact the Northern Virginia real estate market? While widespread resignations don’t seem likely in many cases, the push for employees to return to the office could influence housing decisions. Some may choose to move closer to their workplace, while others might seek new job opportunities elsewhere, leading to shifts in housing demand across the region. These discussions and corporate restructuring may further shape the market, as professionals weigh the benefits of relocating for career stability or exploring opportunities in different areas.

With so many moving pieces in today’s market, having the right guidance is more important than ever. While the market has been challenging over the past two years, we’re seeing growing confidence among buyers and sellers. Many are adjusting to today’s interest rates, recognizing that real estate remains a solid long-term investment. The key to success in this market is understanding the trends, staying informed, and working with an experienced real estate professional who can help you navigate the complexities with confidence.

If you’d like to discuss your real estate goals, have any questions or want to discuss how these market changes might affect your plans, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’d love to help — give me a call anytime!

January 2025 Market Update | Another Year in the Books – Reflecting on 2024 and Looking Ahead to 2025

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Another year has come and gone, and what a year it was! So much happened—and some things didn’t happen as predicted—that it was a whirlwind for the real estate industry. The most significant changes came with updates to our industry practices, particularly regarding commissions.

One major shift was that commissions are no longer allowed to be published in MLS systems or websites connected to them. Additionally, buyers and agents are now required to sign an Exclusive Right to Represent Buyer Agreement before viewing homes. While this has been the law in Virginia since 2012, it’s now more crucial than ever to determine how an agent’s commission will be paid if it isn’t negotiated within the contract. On the bright side, these changes have brought greater transparency to how real estate professionals are compensated.

What Didn’t Change in 2024?

Despite widespread predictions, interest rates did not fall as expected. Many anticipated rates would dip into the mid-5% range, but they stayed elevated throughout the year, even reaching the mid-7% range. This kept many homeowners from selling, resulting in continued low inventory instead of the expected rise in homes for sale.

As a result, sales remained flat compared to 2023 and may even show a slight decrease when final numbers come in. Similarly, while some forecasted a drop—or even a “crash”—in home prices, the opposite occurred. Prices increased, which added to the wealth of homeowners. However, rising prices and rates made affordability a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.

Another area where expectations fell short was regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. While many predicted six cuts in 2024, there were only three. I felt six was ambitious, so I predicted three, which turned out to be correct.

What’s Ahead in 2025?

Here are my predictions for the coming year:

  • Mortgage rates will remain volatile but slightly lower by year-end, likely in the high 5% to low 6% range.
  • Inventory levels will remain low but improve slightly as more baby boomers age in place and homeowners stay “rate locked” in their current mortgages.
  • Home prices will continue to rise due to low inventory and strong demand.
  • Affordability will remain a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.
  • The Fed will cut rates three times, fewer than predicted earlier.
  • Fewer agents will remain in the business due to declining transactions and commission compression.
  • Homeowner’s insurance rates will rise due to the impact of natural disasters, making insurance harder to secure in some areas.
  • Unemployment will increase slightly but remain below 5%, leading to a softer labor market.
  • Inflation should stay manageable, in the range of 2.5–3%, supported by Fed actions and economic conditions.
  • Now more than ever, having a Realtor® represent you is critical to navigating the evolving real estate landscape.

As we step into 2025, it’s clear that the real estate market will continue to present its challenges, but with the right guidance, opportunities abound. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply understand how these changes affect you, I’m here to help. Together, we can navigate this ever-changing market with confidence.

Here’s to a prosperous and fulfilling 2025 — Happy New Year!

December 2024 Market Update

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And just like that, the holiday season is here! Another year is almost in the books — it’s amazing how quickly time flies. So, what’s happening now in the real estate market, and what might we expect in the months ahead? Let’s dive in.

Currently, the demand for housing remains strong. Even during Thanksgiving weekend, buyers were actively attending open houses and scheduling showings across the area. Interest rates have stabilized, and buyers seem to be adapting, even as prices remain at record highs. Why are prices climbing despite higher interest rates? It all comes down to inventory — or the lack of it. While lower inventory is typical during this time of year, we’re seeing even fewer homes available than in many recent years, excluding last year. This scarcity is putting upward pressure on prices.

Looking ahead, the real estate market will largely be shaped by interest rates and potential shifts in policy as we approach 2025. If rates decrease, demand could increase, driving prices higher and creating a more competitive market. Conversely, higher rates could lead to reduced demand, longer listing times, and potentially stable or lower prices. Adding to the mix, a new administration on the horizon brings the possibility of impactful policy changes. Historically, new leadership has often introduced initiatives to stimulate the housing market, such as programs to boost inventory, encourage homeownership, or make financing more accessible. While specifics remain uncertain, both interest rates and policy shifts will play key roles in shaping a potentially exciting and favorable environment for buyers and sellers alike.

On another note, you might wonder if now is a good time to sell your home. The answer depends on your situation. If you need to move soon, now is a great time. Buyer demand is high, and those looking during the holidays are typically serious buyers, not just browsers. Additionally, homes often look their best when decorated for the season, which can help make a strong impression. However, if you simply want to sell, waiting until after the holidays could be beneficial, as the buyer pool isn’t likely to disappear unless rates climb significantly. Either way, I’m happy to discuss your options and help you decide the best path forward.

As we wrap up the year, I wish you and your loved ones a joyful holiday season filled with warmth, laughter, and cherished memories. Happy Holidays! 

October 2024 Market Update | Why Fall 2024 is Perfect for Buying or Selling Your Home

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I often get asked whether now is a good time to buy or sell a home, so let’s look at each scenario and break it down.

If you’re thinking about selling, consider the reasons behind your move. Is it for a job relocation? Are you retiring or needing more (or less) space? Maybe a life change, like marriage or a family transition, has prompted you to think about selling. If you’re motivated by one of these reasons, now is a great time to sell.

Why? Because inventory levels are low, which means less competition for you as a seller. Plus, interest rates are currently at their lowest point in two years, so buyers are out there looking! If your home is priced well and in good condition, you’re in a strong position to sell. And with fall in full swing, buyers are eager to make a move before the holidays. It’s a time when people are focused on settling in before winter, which can make for motivated and serious buyers. If you’re ready, this season offers a perfect window of opportunity to sell your home.

Fall is often considered a sweet spot in real estate. The weather is cooler, making it more comfortable for buyers to view homes, and the natural beauty of fall can showcase your home in its best light. The changing leaves, cozy atmosphere, and crisp air help buyers picture themselves settling into a new space before the holiday season kicks off. Plus, homes tend to look even more inviting with festive fall décor, making them easier to envision as a place for family gatherings and celebrations. Selling in the fall allows you to tap into buyers’ desire to find a home and get settled before the hustle and bustle of the holidays.

For buyers, fall is also a fantastic time to make your move. Interest rates have dropped, and there are homes available in a variety of price ranges and locations. The demand is strong, and if rates dip further, it could lead to even more competition, making it harder to find the right home. Prices are still rising, though at a slower pace, so waiting could mean paying more down the road. Fall also offers a cozy, beautiful backdrop for house hunting—imagine finding your dream home before Thanksgiving or the first frost! If you find a home that fits your needs, is in the right location, and works with your budget, now is the time to act! Remember, if rates fall, you can always refinance later. As the saying goes, “Don’t wait to buy real estate; buy real estate and wait.”

If you have any questions or want to discuss your situation further, feel free to reach out today. Let’s make this fall season the perfect time for you to achieve your real estate goals!

June 2024 Market Update

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What do you think the real estate market will be like this summer? Will buyers be experiencing the summertime blues with a lack of inventory, interest rates in the 7% range, increasing prices, and strong demand from other buyers, keeping it a tight seller’s market? Will sellers do the right things to sell their homes by properly pricing their house, staging so it is ready for market, and be able to choose from multiple buyers, making it difficult for some people to become homeowners?

Will interest rates come down with the spread between 10-year yield and 30-year fixed interest rates coming closer together? If this happens, will more people put their homes on the market because they won’t have as much mortgage rate lock-in effect? Will inventory increase because the only thing people like about their house is their interest rate, and they are ready to move? Will buyers stay put if rates don’t come down because of affordability issues?

The most consistent theme in these questions is interest rates, right? Yes, but also inventory. These are the major factors that dictate the real estate market and, of course, pricing. If we see fewer houses on the market coupled with lower rates, we will see more buyers and higher prices. If we see higher rates, we will have fewer buyers and, hence, more inventory, so prices will moderate and, in some cases, may come down.

Nationally, we are seeing more houses for sale, but locally, we have only slightly more inventory than last year, which is way below the 5-year average for active homes for sale. Again, demand remains high in our area, insulating us from broader market trends and news headlines about the real estate market around the country. That’s why having a knowledgeable agent is crucial to understand local market conditions and trends. If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell a home, I am here to help.

Please feel free to reach out to discuss my answers to the questions above. Enjoy the long days and warm temperatures!

June 2020 Market Update

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First and foremost, I trust you are staying safe and making wise decisions when going out in public, so you remain healthy!

So, you may be wondering what was happening in the real estate business during the pandemic while we were on stay at home status. As I mentioned previously, we were deemed essential, so we could still “work” and help people make wise decisions when selling, buying, or leasing properties. And let me tell you, this pandemic did not stop our local real estate market, as houses are selling and selling fast in many cases. The median days on market in Northern Virginia in March were six; in April, it was five, and I am guessing that we will have the same result in May. The average days on market stand at just 28 days.  We still have an extremely low inventory level today, and we have a tremendous number of buyers out in the marketplace resulting in a feeding frenzy in many price points and in most locations throughout Northern Virginia. Today, the number of homes for sale is 40% below this same time last year and is down 51% from two years ago. We currently have less than one month’s supply of homes, which is historically low. The bottom line is – we need more houses to sell to keep up with the demand.

Mortgage interest rates are incredibly low – around 3.25% today. The great rates are one contributing factor to home sales as it is more affordable (on a monthly basis) to own versus renting in many cases. The rental market remains on fire as well as demand is strong for rentals. Additionally, prices are increasing across the region, and buyers want to begin their wealth-building strategy of homeownership. One interesting dynamic that we are seeing is more first-time buyers entering the market and fewer investors/cash transactions.

It is still a great time to both buy and sell if you take the proper precautions. Give me a call me to discuss your situation in more detail, especially now that we are entering Phase 1. The big question to be answered by the next newsletter is… Did more people decide to sell now that we are in Phase 1 or potentially Phase 2? Lastly, if you went into forbearance on your mortgage or other debts or if you are thinking about it, please call me so I can explain the process and ramifications.

Happy Summer!!