January 2021 Market Update

Happy New Year!  Welcome to 2021!  I predict this will be yet another exciting year with lots of new challenges, adversity, change, and so much more. The good thing to note is out of these situations come positive outcomes for many if you keep the right mental attitude, stay adaptable, and take care of yourself and those around you. We do not know what lies ahead but keeping strong is as vital as ever.

I have been asked, “what is going to happen with real estate in 2021”?  It depends on whether you are a buyer, seller, renter, landlord, or investor. Inventory levels in Northern Virginia continue to decline. We ended the year with only 1,737 houses for sale in Arlington, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, and Fauquier Counties and all the cities located within this area. As you can imagine, this number is extremely low, historically speaking. This makes purchasing a home extraordinarily difficult for buyers. I am currently working with a buyer where we have bid $30,000 over list, $40,000 over list, and $50,000 over list and on three separate houses, and we have lost out on each of them. They are in the $400,000 – $500,000 price point. The listing agents said they were overwhelmed with offers and calls – one had 17 offers in hand in less than 24 hours. So, you can see the buying environment is uber-competitive. On the flip side, this makes it a great time to sell a home if you are looking to move. Depending on the price point, location and condition, sellers can expect multiple showings as well as multiple contracts with purchasers paying more than the sales price and waiving many, if not all, the contingencies associated with a sale. Renting houses is also a challenge as there is a .4-month supply of homes available, and of those, 40% are single-family or townhouses. Again, this makes being a landlord easier to get results as there is a brisk rental market in Northern Virginia. Most investors like houses that cash flow, and with prices being bid up, many investors are choosing to wait on the sidelines to see if more inventory comes on the market prior to getting into bidding wars. Time will tell if we get more inventory or not, but I believe we will experience low inventory throughout 2021. Call me to discuss your situation in more detail so we can help you make the right decisions.

So, the market that is struggling the most right now in our area is condos. In Arlington County, 84% of the resale inventory is condominiums. The average days on the market for a condo in Arlington is 76 days and the average overall days on the market for all properties in NOVA is 16. Quite a difference, right? The rental market is remarkably similar in all of NOVA – condos are on the market for 126 days, and single-family and townhouses are on the market for 42 days. Be careful when considering an investment in condos right now.

As always, I am happy to speak with you about your situation as each one is different.  Happy New Year, and as always, be safe, make wise decisions when you go in public, so you

December 2020 Market Update

As we close out 2020…

A lot has transpired since the last newsletter… a presidential election, Covid-19 outbreaks resulting in additional shutdowns, local jurisdictions reverting back to more restrictions on public gatherings, regional school districts canceling or staggering the return to the classroom, and of course, Thanksgiving. Luckily, we had great weather on Thanksgiving and could eat outside with our “at-risk” family members and maintain social distancing with them throughout the day.

Interest rates remain low on the real estate front; fewer people are re-engaging in forbearance on their mortgages, and houses are still selling – often with multiple offers. All in all, it’s a great market not only in Northern Virginia but around the country. 

As we enter the holiday season, inventory levels remain low, making it difficult for buyers looking to take advantage of great rates. We are only 9% below last year’s level of homes for sale during this same week in time. As I look back, this was the beginning of the inventory shortage in our area. It will be interesting to see if we match our low from this past January when we had just over 1,800 houses for sale. If you are considering relocating, downsizing, or upsizing, call me to see how we can help you get into a home. We have strategies for every market to help people become homeowners.

So, the question I am often asked this time of year is, should we sell our house or wait until the spring. My answer is – it depends. Do you need to sell, or do you want to sell? If you sell, where will you go? If you have to sell and have the next home secured or have living arrangements lined up, sell today. If you are looking to sell to take advantage of the market, we need to talk sooner rather than later. As I previously mentioned, rates are great, purchasers are out in the market looking to buy, we know what other houses are for sale right now versus the springtime, and we know what price we can get for it based upon recent sales. Also, in all likelihood, if the house is in great shape, is in an ideal location, and is priced right, it will sell quickly with little inconvenience to the seller. If you find yourself in this situation, please call me to discuss your situation in more detail.

Until next year, be safe, make wise decisions when going out in public so you remain healthy so you can celebrate the holidays with your loved ones.

October 2020 Market Update

Real estate continues to be the shining light in the current economic recovery. Buyer demand, housing prices, and new and existing home sales continue to be strong – not only in Northern Virginia but also across the country. Our issue continues to be low inventory levels for the demand that we are presently experiencing. As of today, we have 30% less inventory of homes for sale versus this same time last year. The median days a house stayed on the market in August was just six days, so as you can see, demand is there.

Additionally, prices are up year to date 7.95% over last year’s pricing. The pandemic pushed the housing market back about three months, so what would typically be a slower time of the year is one of our strongest. If you are considering selling, now is an ideal time as we couple all this data with the fact that we have the lowest interest rates in the history of tracking. Contact me to discuss your situation in more detail if you are considering selling.

So, where is the market headed into the future? There is talk of another foreclosure crisis that could lead us into a Great Recession… will this happen? There is a housing bubble, and prices are going to crash… will this happen? My answer is no to both. First, we have low inventory levels and high demand. In October 2006, we had just under 23,000 houses for sale; today, we have 3,014. If properties are foreclosed on by banks and released to the market, they would sell quickly and not put us into a housing crisis. Again, back then, we had a 10-month supply of houses, today we have a .8-month supply of houses – a considerable difference. Back then, people “walked away” from their homes because of price drops and lending practices; this is not going to happen now. Today’s loan products, loan qualifications, and lending guidelines are nowhere like what they were prior to the Great Recession.

Back then, we had exotic loan programs, 100% financing programs, teaser rate loan products, and just bad underwriting guidelines. Homeowners today are more financially stable, which will result in fewer foreclosures. If there is an area that may be in jeopardy, it would be in the Mom and Pop landlord arena.  Basically, people who have one or two investment properties may not be able to “carry” the houses if their tenants are unemployed. This is a small segment, so I don’t see it significantly impacting our market.

Additionally, prices are rising, but not at the rate they were in 2004 – 22% year over year increases, 2005 – 24% price increase year over year and in 2006 it was 23%. As I mentioned, we are at a reasonable pace of 7.95% today; therefore, I do not foresee a crash in prices like we saw in the past. We will see a decline in housing price increases, but not a decline in prices… big difference. Our market is stable and will continue to be so for some time, in my opinion. If you would like to discuss this further, please feel free to call me. 

Enjoy the weather! Have a safe and Happy Halloween!

August 2020 Market Update

As we enter the dog days of summer and the Month of Miracles…

And prepare for a new version of back-to-school, I hope you and your family are safe, remaining healthy, and are making wise decisions when going out in public.

This month’s update may seem like a broken record, but it is what it is these days. Inventory levels of resales homes in Northern Virginia remain extremely low – 41% below last year’s levels.  Currently, there are only 2,714 houses for sale throughout our area, which includes Arlington, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, and Fauquier Counties, as well as all the cities in between. Even with low inventory levels, sales remain strong as they are up 18% week-over-week from last year and up 17% over the previous 30 days from last year. This result is a .7 month’s supply of houses – last year it was a 1.5-month supply. We are still receiving multiple offers on our listings, and the median days on market are a mere seven days making it an exceptionally strong seller’s market. I believe we are going to be in this market for some time as the discussions I am having with homeowners and agents is that they are not likely to sell or they don’t have a lot of houses coming on the market. This has resulted in the increased prices we are seeing. Year to date, prices are up 6.25% over the same time frame from last year. As I’ve said before, it is an excellent time to be a seller. If you are considering selling, call me to discuss your situation in
more detail.

Buyers do have challenges in today’s low inventory, multiple contract situation market we are in, but we are getting our clients into homes! Our team has exclusive strategy sessions where we share ideas on how we are negotiating to get our clients the home of their dreams. These sessions and strategies have been working, which is great for our clients. In addition to this, interest rates are now below 3%! The expectation is they are going to stay in this range for some time, so there is good news for those looking to become owners or potentially moving up to their “forever” homes. If you are considering looking into the option of purchasing a home, call me to set up a private consultation. I am here to help!

Please remember, even if now is not the right time for you to buy or sell, it may be the perfect time for you to refinance! I can put you in touch with one of our lender partners, so feel free to reach out.

Stay cool in this heatwave we are experiencing. Good luck to all of the students out there! Curious what the Month of Miracles is? Give me a call, I’d love to tell you all about it!

May 2020 Market Update

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Hopefully, you and your loved ones are staying safe and healthy during these unprecedented times. As previously mentioned, real estate is considered an essential business and as such, we have adapted to new ways of conducting business. Yes, homes are being purchased, sold, and leased – people need shelter. We are lucky as we can help those in need of our services. Due to the different lockdown restrictions, many of my friends across the country and around the world cannot help people with their housing needs. It is strange to me how in some areas, lenders, title companies, home inspectors, appraisers, and other professionals are considered essential, but REALTORS are not.  Not to being political here but how can REALTORS not be deemed essential and the others can be? How can they conduct their business without a REALTOR selling the house prior to needing their services?  Odd to me.

Locally, we are practicing all real estate services albeit on a more limited basis and in a different way.  We are doing virtual showings for buyers who do not want to go out to see homes in person. We are conducting virtual open houses and scheduling appointment only showings during the virtual open houses. Settlements are outside or even drive up style – many with no REALTORS present.  We are also seeing e-closings with no one present in the same room. We are wearing masks, gloves, and booties during showings and bringing disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer – for everyone’s health and safety. If you are considering buying, selling, or leasing a house, it is still possible and I am willing and able to help, so let’s discuss how this all works in more detail.

Now, let’s talk numbers. Inventory levels remain low – 34% below this same time last year. We currently have only 2,974 houses for sale in all of Northern Virginia. Contracts written the previous 30 days are down 31% versus the same week last year. Lastly, closings the previous 30 days are down 20% from the same time last year. Now, the good news is sales have gone up each of the last four weeks and when houses do come on the market, they sell quickly when priced right and they are in the right condition.  We continue to see multiple contracts in many homes throughout the area as well. We have had many buyers move to the sidelines during the pandemic and some sellers have decided to wait or have pulled their homes off the market until “the coast is clear”. One thing is for certain, we will have a lot of pent up demand for housing when we return to a new normal as we have more buyers on the sidelines than sellers. I envision an even more competitive housing market in the future.

Be safe, make wise decisions when going out in public so you and your family remain healthy.

July Market Update

Mid Year Update

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It is hard to believe we are already halfway through 2019. The two questions that I have are; where does the time go and where is the housing inventory? The number of houses in Northern Virginia remains extremely low – 20% below last year and nearly 33% from two years ago. The inventory with the lowest levels is in the first-time home buyer price range which is basically houses and condos priced below $350,000. At the time of this newsletter, there are only 717 properties for sale in all of Northern Virginia at this price point. These homes are flying off the market with an absorption rate resulting in a .75 month’s supply of housing. As such, we are seeing multiple offers as there just not enough supply for the number of buyers in this market. To climb the pricing ladder, we will see the month’s supply and inventory rise. As a comparison, houses priced between $350,000 and $500,000 have a .83 month’s supply with only 872 houses for sale. The $500,000 and $750,000 priced houses have a 1.2 month’s supply with 1,252 currently on the market. Both of these numbers are low, historically speaking, so don’t be alarmed if you are thinking of selling your house. Where we see the market slowing is in the $750,000 and above price point. In this price point, we have over a 3 month’s supply of inventory with 1,683 houses for sale. This is obviously a larger price range but shows the higher you go, the longer it takes to sell. I have mentioned many times if a house isn’t compelling – it isn’t selling and the best way to make it compelling is price. If you are considering selling in any of these price points, please call me to learn how to best position your house to sell for the most money in the least amount of time.

So, what does it mean for buyers? There are opportunities in the market to own but you need to be strategic in doing so in every price point. It is important to utilize the services of a professional to negotiate for you to get you into the home you desire. If you are considering becoming a homeowner for the first time or if you are moving up or down, give me a call to learn how this can be done for you.

Have a very Happy 4th of July and please be safe!