Market Trends

December 2025 Market Update

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Treading Water, Tight Inventory, and What’s Coming Next

As we wrap up November and head into the final stretch of the year, the Northern Virginia real estate market is holding a familiar patteAs we wrap up November and head into the final stretch of the year, the Northern Virginia real estate market is holding a familiar pattern – tight inventory, steady demand, and numbers that continue to show how limited supply is shaping activity. From October to November, our available inventory dropped by another 25%. We normally expect some seasonal slowing this time of year, but this is more than the typical holiday dip. We were already operating with low inventory, and removing a quarter of the available homes in just 30 days only adds more pressure to an already thin market.

Not surprisingly, sales followed the same direction. Closed sales fell 23% over the same period, but not because buyers aren’t interested. The demand is there; we’re just short on homes to sell. When the right property hits at the right price, it still draws attention, and in many cases, competition. Sellers continue to benefit from only 1.8 months of inventory, which supports pricing, but makes it tough for buyers who are waiting for something to fit their needs.

There is one encouraging piece of news – interest rates today are lower than they were at this time last year. That’s helping maintain buyer activity, even as we move deeper into the slower holiday season. People are still watching the market, still searching, and many are ready to move when the right opportunity appears. Demand hasn’t disappeared; it’s simply patient.

Economically, we’re in a middle ground. Inflation continues to cool, growth has slowed but remains steady, layoffs are happening in pockets, the stock market moves, but trends upward overall, and consumers are still spending—just with more caution. It’s not a boom, and it’s not a recession. We’re treading water, and in many ways, the housing market is doing the same.

A key factor right now is inflation. It has been moving consistently in the right direction, and because of that, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to reduce their rate in the upcoming meeting. The reasons are fairly straightforward: inflation is easing toward target levels, growth has cooled enough that the Fed doesn’t need to keep pressure on, borrowing costs have been weighing on consumers and businesses, and other global banks have already begun cutting. A rate cut now isn’t about stimulating the economy; it’s about keeping us from slowing down too much.

If the Fed does cut rates, we could see some notable movement. Mortgage rates may tick down a bit more – not directly tied to the Fed rate, but typically influenced by the broader expectations it creates. More buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines may step forward, and sellers who have been holding tight to their 2–3% mortgages might finally consider a move. With inventory already down 25% and demand still present, even a slight increase in activity could heat the market quickly.

So, here’s the reality as we head into 2026: inventory continues to shrink, sales are down because supply is down, buyers are still present and engaged, interest rates are better than a year ago, and a Fed cut could push more activity into early 2026. This is a market where strategy matters – being prepared and moving decisively when the right opportunity appears is key. If you’d like to talk through what this means for your plans, whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply exploring options, I’m always here to help. Wishing you a wonderful holiday season and a strong start to the new yearrn – tight inventory, steady demand, and numbers that continue to show how limited supply is shaping activity. From October to November, our available inventory dropped by another 25%. We normally expect some seasonal slowing this time of year, but this is more than the typical holiday dip. We were already operating with low inventory, and removing a quarter of the available homes in just 30 days only adds more pressure to an already thin market.

Not surprisingly, sales followed the same direction. Closed sales fell 23% over the same period, but not because buyers aren’t interested. The demand is there; we’re just short on homes to sell. When the right property hits at the right price, it still draws attention, and in many cases, competition. Sellers continue to benefit from only 1.8 months of inventory, which supports pricing, but makes it tough for buyers who are waiting for something to fit their needs.

There is one encouraging piece of news – interest rates today are lower than they were at this time last year. That’s helping maintain buyer activity, even as we move deeper into the slower holiday season. People are still watching the market, still searching, and many are ready to move when the right opportunity appears. Demand hasn’t disappeared; it’s simply patient.

Economically, we’re in a middle ground. Inflation continues to cool, growth has slowed but remains steady, layoffs are happening in pockets, the stock market moves, but trends upward overall, and consumers are still spending—just with more caution. It’s not a boom, and it’s not a recession. We’re treading water, and in many ways, the housing market is doing the same.

A key factor right now is inflation. It has been moving consistently in the right direction, and because of that, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to reduce their rate in the upcoming meeting. The reasons are fairly straightforward: inflation is easing toward target levels, growth has cooled enough that the Fed doesn’t need to keep pressure on, borrowing costs have been weighing on consumers and businesses, and other global banks have already begun cutting. A rate cut now isn’t about stimulating the economy; it’s about keeping us from slowing down too much.

If the Fed does cut rates, we could see some notable movement. Mortgage rates may tick down a bit more – not directly tied to the Fed rate, but typically influenced by the broader expectations it creates. More buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines may step forward, and sellers who have been holding tight to their 2–3% mortgages might finally consider a move. With inventory already down 25% and demand still present, even a slight increase in activity could heat the market quickly.

So, here’s the reality as we head into 2026: inventory continues to shrink, sales are down because supply is down, buyers are still present and engaged, interest rates are better than a year ago, and a Fed cut could push more activity into early 2026. This is a market where strategy matters – being prepared and moving decisively when the right opportunity appears is key. If you’d like to talk through what this means for your plans, whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply exploring options, I’m always here to help. Wishing you a wonderful holiday season and a strong start to the new year

November 2025 Market Update

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I’ve heard people say the market is “stuck in the mud.” Personally, I think we’re just treading water. Sales are stagnant, inventory continues to decline, yet rates are sitting near three-year lows. There’s still considerable uncertainty in the economy and job market. With the government shutdown, layoffs at UPS, AWS, GM, and even Target, and that uncertainty is keeping people on the sidelines.

As I’ve mentioned before, our “seasonal slowdown” started earlier than usual this year, back in September. Normally, we don’t see it until October or November. The hope now is that the Fed’s recent rate cut gives things a little spark — perhaps boosting the stock market, improving consumer confidence, and getting people moving again. What’s interesting is that consumer confidence didn’t go down this month, which honestly surprised me. It stayed level, which, given everything happening, is a small win.

As we move into the holiday season and the traditional slowdown, my concern is that we don’t end up with a double dip — lower sales and even lower inventory. If that does happen, though, there will still be opportunities. Every market shift creates them. If you’d like to discuss what that might look like for your situation, please give me a call; I’m happy to walk you through different strategies.

Now, let’s talk about something that’s been bugging me a bit lately: I keep hearing people say we’re in a buyer’s market. We are not in a buyer’s market. Not even close. Just because we’re seeing some contingencies in contracts doesn’t make it a buyer’s market — it makes it a balanced market. Not every deal even has contingencies, and 47% of sales are at or above list price.  When the numbers show homes are selling for an average of 99.5% of the original list price and houses are on the market for just 27 days on average, it’s hard to argue that buyers are in control.  

Here’s the reality — about 77% of REALTORS have been licensed for less than 15 years, and 51% of all agents have been in the business less than 5 years. Therefore, they have never seen a true buyer’s market or experienced what one is. A real buyer’s market means an excess of inventory, price drops, and homes sitting on the market for months. That’s not what we’re seeing today, by a wide margin, as previously mentioned.

More than ever, who you work with matters. Experience counts. Knowledge counts. Understanding how to navigate through uncertainty counts. If you’d like to discuss your next move, whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, let’s connect.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

October 2025 Market Update

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What’s Really Happening with Interest Rates and Housing

The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates by a quarter of a point. While this was big news in the financial world, it’s important to understand what it really means for the housing market. A common misconception is that when the Fed reduces rates, mortgage rates will automatically come down. In reality, that isn’t always the case.

Here’s why: mortgage lenders usually anticipate the Fed’s moves and adjust their rates ahead of time. That’s exactly what happened this time. Mortgage rates had already dipped before the Fed made its announcement. Then, when inflation numbers came in higher than expected, it rattled the economy, and mortgage rates actually rose again. In recent weeks, we’ve seen rates fluctuate – rising, falling, and then rising again – making it feel like a rollercoaster ride for anyone watching closely.

This uncertainty has created a very dynamic housing market. On the one hand, some homes are still receiving multiple offers, but these situations are happening less frequently. On the other hand, more homes are sitting on the market longer, and we’re even seeing buyers successfully negotiate contingencies into their contracts again – something that wasn’t very common during the ultra-competitive years of 2020–2022.

The pace of sales is another concern. August sales were the lowest we’ve seen in three decades. If the slowdown continues, total home sales for the year could fall back to levels not seen since the 1990s. That’s a significant shift and something we’ll be watching closely.

If you’re considering selling, it’s essential to understand what today’s buyers expect. Homes need to be priced competitively, as overpricing will only cause them to sit on the market. Presentation is equally important – buyers want to see properties that are fresh, clean, and move-in ready. Staging can also make a big difference by highlighting a home’s best features and creating a strong first impression. Finally, accessibility matters; the easier it is for buyers to view your home, the better your chances of receiving an offer.

For buyers, the current market offers some unique opportunities. With homes staying on the market longer, there’s more room to negotiate terms, include contingencies, and take a little extra time to make thoughtful decisions, something we haven’t seen much of in the fast-paced markets of the past few years.

Adding to the uncertainty, the federal government shutdown began on October 1st. Right now, no one knows how long it will last. A short shutdown may not have a significant impact, but if it drags on, it could slow down certain aspects of the real estate process – such as mortgage underwriting, flood insurance, and even some verifications tied to government agencies. This could create delays for both buyers and sellers.

The real estate market is adjusting, and while we haven’t quite found our new “normal,” one thing remains true: preparation and strategy matter. Whether you’re buying or selling, the best advantage you can have is knowledge and guidance.

If you’re considering making a move, let’s talk. I’d be happy to walk you through what’s happening right now, explain how it impacts your situation, and outline the steps you can take to achieve your goals. Give me a call, I’m here to help you navigate this market with confidence.

September 2025 Market Update

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From Frenzy to Balance: What Today’s Market Means for You

As summer comes to a close, we’re beginning to see the real estate market shift out of the unpredictable patterns we’ve experienced these past few months. The market in Northern Virginia has felt like a roller coaster ride – sales climbing one week, dipping the next, and interest rates moving up and down just as quickly. That kind of volatility has left many buyers and sellers wondering what’s really going on.

The encouraging news is that we’re starting to move toward a more stable and balanced market. For a long time, especially during the pandemic, it was a strong seller’s market. Homes were selling in a matter of days, often with multiple offers well over asking price, and buyers had little room to negotiate. That environment made it challenging for buyers and created very high expectations for sellers.

Now, things are changing. While certain homes in sought-after neighborhoods may still attract multiple offers, most properties are staying on the market a little longer. This means buyers have more breathing room—they can take time to view homes, compare options, and even negotiate important protections (called contingencies) into their contracts. For sellers, it’s important to adjust expectations: instead of expecting instant offers, the new “normal” may be a few weeks on the market before the right buyer comes along.

This shift is part of a natural cycle. Real estate always ebbs and flows, and right now we’re moving away from the frantic pace of the past several years into something more balanced. That’s not bad news, it’s healthy. A balanced market gives both buyers and sellers a fair shot.

Looking ahead, interest rates remain a key factor. The Federal Reserve is expected to make another adjustment in September. Many are hopeful this could ease mortgage rates, making buying more affordable. However, it’s worth remembering that the last time the Fed moved rates in November, mortgage rates actually increased. In other words, there’s still uncertainty. We’re in a transition period, and patience is essential until the market settles into a new rhythm.

If you’re a buyer, now may be an opportunity. With more homes staying on the market and less competition, you may be able to negotiate better terms than in years past. If you’re a seller, pricing your home correctly and presenting it well is more important than ever—homes that are priced right and show well are still selling quickly. No matter where you are in your real estate journey – buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of the headlines, I’m here to walk you through it and help you make the best decisions for your situation here in Northern Virginia.

August 2025 Market Update

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Is the Northern Virginia real estate market frozen? The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to move through one of the most peculiar periods in recent memory – one defined by contradiction, hesitation, and uncertainty. Why, you may ask? There are several factors at play: the economy, federal government layoffs impacting the entire region, higher-than-expected interest rates for an extended period, and buyer apathy. While summer typically brings more energy to the housing market, in recent years, this year feels… stuck.

Inventory remains flat. The number of homes coming to the market isn’t increasing in any meaningful way, and houses are staying on the market longer. We’re hovering at very low inventory levels, and yet homes aren’t selling as quickly as you might expect with a limited supply. Why? Because sales volume is stagnant, leaving both buyers and sellers confused about their next steps.

Uncertainty appears to be the new normal. Let’s break down the reasons discussed above further.

A major driver of this slowdown is the current economic climate. Consumers are wary. Whether it’s concerns about inflation, job market fluctuations, or the broader macroeconomic outlook, many potential buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for some clarity. Unfortunately, the only thing that seems consistent lately is unpredictability.

Interest rates are the elephant in the room. Higher-than-expected interest rates continue to weigh heavily on both buyers and sellers. For buyers, mortgage payments are significantly more expensive than they were just 18 months ago. For sellers, the idea of trading in a 3% mortgage for something north of 7% is a hard pill to swallow. As a result, homeowners are opting to “wait it out,” which is further contributing to the inventory standstill.

All this being said, we are experiencing a tale of two markets, which is perhaps the most baffling aspect of this market: its inconsistency. Why? On the one hand, we’re seeing well-located, properly priced, turnkey homes receive multiple offers—sometimes six or seven—within days of hitting the market. These homes continue to generate excitement and competition. On the other hand, we’re seeing some listings sit for weeks, sometimes going days without a single showing, or they are receiving lowball offers that don’t reflect the home’s value.

What’s the difference? Often, it’s the small things: pricing strategy, presentation, marketing, or the home’s location. Buyers today are more discerning, cautious, and highly sensitive to perceived value. They are willing to pay a premium, but only when they see clear justification for doing so.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers? If you’re a buyer, be aware that opportunities still exist, but patience is crucial. Be prepared to act quickly on the right home, but also understand that not every property will be a bidding war. In some cases, you may be able to negotiate. 

If you’re a seller, strategy is everything right now. This is not the market to “test the waters” with aspirational pricing. Homes that are priced correctly and show well will sell – often quickly. Those that miss the mark risk being ignored entirely.

Looking ahead, until there’s more certainty around interest rates or economic stability, we expect the market to remain uneven and choppy. Real estate is hyper-local, and even within Northern Virginia, we’re seeing pockets of high demand alongside areas that are lagging behind.

Now more than ever, experience and strategy matter. If you’re considering buying or selling, let’s discuss how to navigate this unpredictable market with confidence and clarity.

June 2025 Market Update

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Will the real estate market hit the summertime blues…or bounce back?

As we roll into the summer season, many homeowners and buyers alike are asking the same question: Will the real estate market slow down as it usually does this time of year… or are we gearing up for a late-season rebound?

Right now, we’re seeing a shift — one that’s been building gradually but feels like it came on fast. Sales activity is slowing down, interest rates are continuing to rise, and mortgage applications have dipped over the past few weeks. Buyers are taking a more cautious, wait-and-see approach, watching not only where interest rates are headed but also where home prices might land.

We are firmly in an interest rate–driven market. When rates go up, buyer demand tends to go down, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now. Homes that may have sold in a matter of days earlier this year are now taking a little longer. In some cases, sellers are adjusting prices or offering incentives to attract serious buyers. There’s no panic — just a noticeable softening.This kind of quick market shift isn’t new. We’ve seen it before, especially since the pandemic. One moment, things are quiet. Next, homes are flying off the market. The real estate market has become increasingly sensitive to economic news, interest rate changes, and shifts in consumer confidence than ever before.

Historically, the summer months — especially July and August — bring a seasonal slowdown. People are traveling, kids are out of school, and real estate often takes a backseat to summer fun. But come September, activity usually picks up again. Whether that holds true this year will largely depend on interest rates.

If rates stabilize or drop, we could see more buyers re-enter the market. If they continue to rise, the current pause may last a little longer. Either way, we expect things to stay dynamic — and keeping a close eye on these trends will be important for both buyers and sellers.

Bottom line? Real estate is always moving, even when it slows. If you’re considering making a move this summer or fall, give me a call, let’s talk strategy. The more you understand the market, the better positioned you’ll be to make smart decisions. Happy Summer!

February 2025 Market Update

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The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to be full of surprises. Looking back at 2023, home sales in our region outpaced expectations, despite the challenges posed by higher interest rates. Many predicted rates would decrease, leading to increased sales. However, as rates remained elevated, the market didn’t slow down in Northern Virginia the way it did in other parts of the country.

Nationally, 2024 started with home sales dipping below 4 million — the lowest since 1995 and even lower than in 2023. However, projections indicate a modest rebound of about 2% this year, pushing sales back above the 4 million mark. Mortgage rates, which spent much of the past year above 7%, have recently settled in the mid-6% range. While some forecasts suggest rates may decrease, they are expected to remain between 6-7% for the foreseeable future.

Beyond interest rates, other factors could impact our housing market. Changes in administration policies, trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico, and potential tariffs could influence the cost of new construction of new homes, particularly as they relate to lumber and building materials. In addition, how will recent resignations impact the Northern Virginia real estate market? While widespread resignations don’t seem likely in many cases, the push for employees to return to the office could influence housing decisions. Some may choose to move closer to their workplace, while others might seek new job opportunities elsewhere, leading to shifts in housing demand across the region. These discussions and corporate restructuring may further shape the market, as professionals weigh the benefits of relocating for career stability or exploring opportunities in different areas.

With so many moving pieces in today’s market, having the right guidance is more important than ever. While the market has been challenging over the past two years, we’re seeing growing confidence among buyers and sellers. Many are adjusting to today’s interest rates, recognizing that real estate remains a solid long-term investment. The key to success in this market is understanding the trends, staying informed, and working with an experienced real estate professional who can help you navigate the complexities with confidence.

If you’d like to discuss your real estate goals, have any questions or want to discuss how these market changes might affect your plans, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’d love to help — give me a call anytime!

December 2024 Market Update

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And just like that, the holiday season is here! Another year is almost in the books — it’s amazing how quickly time flies. So, what’s happening now in the real estate market, and what might we expect in the months ahead? Let’s dive in.

Currently, the demand for housing remains strong. Even during Thanksgiving weekend, buyers were actively attending open houses and scheduling showings across the area. Interest rates have stabilized, and buyers seem to be adapting, even as prices remain at record highs. Why are prices climbing despite higher interest rates? It all comes down to inventory — or the lack of it. While lower inventory is typical during this time of year, we’re seeing even fewer homes available than in many recent years, excluding last year. This scarcity is putting upward pressure on prices.

Looking ahead, the real estate market will largely be shaped by interest rates and potential shifts in policy as we approach 2025. If rates decrease, demand could increase, driving prices higher and creating a more competitive market. Conversely, higher rates could lead to reduced demand, longer listing times, and potentially stable or lower prices. Adding to the mix, a new administration on the horizon brings the possibility of impactful policy changes. Historically, new leadership has often introduced initiatives to stimulate the housing market, such as programs to boost inventory, encourage homeownership, or make financing more accessible. While specifics remain uncertain, both interest rates and policy shifts will play key roles in shaping a potentially exciting and favorable environment for buyers and sellers alike.

On another note, you might wonder if now is a good time to sell your home. The answer depends on your situation. If you need to move soon, now is a great time. Buyer demand is high, and those looking during the holidays are typically serious buyers, not just browsers. Additionally, homes often look their best when decorated for the season, which can help make a strong impression. However, if you simply want to sell, waiting until after the holidays could be beneficial, as the buyer pool isn’t likely to disappear unless rates climb significantly. Either way, I’m happy to discuss your options and help you decide the best path forward.

As we wrap up the year, I wish you and your loved ones a joyful holiday season filled with warmth, laughter, and cherished memories. Happy Holidays! 

November 2024 Market Update

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With so much conflicting information about today’s real estate market, I’d like to share my perspective to clarify where we truly stand. Many buyers are holding off until after the election to make a move, but this may not be in their best interest. Historically, home prices tend to rise by around 5% in the year following an election, while interest rates often decrease, inviting more buyers into the market. This increased demand can drive up competition, especially with the limited inventory available. Waiting could ultimately mean higher prices and more competition. The savvy buyer would benefit from acting now rather than later.

Contrary to some beliefs, a significant drop in home prices is unlikely. For prices to decline, we’d need a large influx of inventory—something we’re not seeing. Homeowners are staying put longer, often tied to favorable interest rates, and most are only selling for significant life changes. Additionally, distressed properties, which historically have lower prices, are nearly absent. With 40% of homeowners owning their homes outright and 50% of mortgage holders having over 50% equity, the market remains stable. Since 1942, prices have only declined in six years, five of which were during the Great Recession. Outside of that, price drops have been rare and minimal.

For sellers, while the market may have slowed compared to the recent frenetic years, it remains active. The average days on the market have increased slightly—by only two days over last year. Meanwhile, sales increased by 14% compared to the same period last year, reflecting a steady buyer interest. Although rates have edged up recently, experts anticipate they’ll settle in the 6% to 6.5% range by early next year, potentially dipping into the high 5s by the end of the year.

As we approach the holiday season, remember that this time of year brings unique opportunities for buyers and sellers alike. Many choose to wait until the new year to make a move, but those who take action now may benefit from less competition and more favorable conditions. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, having accurate, up-to-date information is essential. Please reach out if you or someone you know is considering a move – we’d be glad to help you navigate today’s market with confidence.

Wishing you and yours a very Happy Thanksgiving!

September 2024 Market Update

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As we step into the beginning of fall with cooler temperatures and apple-picking season in full swing, the Northern Virginia real estate market is also experiencing some noticeable changes. While mortgage rates have dipped by nearly 1% since June, this hasn’t yet brought a rush of eager buyers back into the market as we initially expected.

Instead, we’re noticing a trend: homes are staying on the market longer than they used to, and the flurry of multiple offers is becoming a thing of the past. Homes that once sparked bidding wars are now sitting on the market a bit longer, prompting sellers to reconsider their pricing strategies and expectations. To set the right price, it’s important to closely watch local trends — such as the number of competing properties, recent foot traffic, and how long homes are staying on the market.

One reason for the slower pace is the uncertainty around the upcoming election. As we enter an election year, many potential buyers are taking a “wait-and-see” approach. Economic policies proposed by key political figures, such as Vice President Kamala Harris’s suggested $25,000 credit for homebuyers, add another layer of complexity to the decision-making process. Additionally, there is some confusion around buyer agent compensation due to a recent commission lawsuit. Many buyers mistakenly think they need to cover down payments, closing costs, and their agent’s fees, which is rarely the case.

There’s also a belief that mortgage rates might drop further in the months ahead. If rates do continue on a downward trend, it might act as a double-edged sword. While lower rates could spur demand, they could also cause potential buyers to hesitate, hoping for even better rates. Waiting too long to buy, however, could mean facing higher prices if demand increases against our current low inventory.

For sellers, this evolving market means adjusting your strategy is key. With multiple contracts becoming less common, proper pricing, timing, staging, and marketing are essential to making your home stand out. Overpricing in this market can result in a longer time on the market and missed opportunities. If you’re thinking about selling, call me to learn how we’re helping our clients our sellers maximize their pricing and time on the market.   

While the market is showing signs of a slight slowdown, there are still opportunities for strategic sellers who stay informed and adaptable. The coming months will reveal more as we see how the election, the economy, employment trends, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence shape our real estate landscape.

Stay tuned for more updates, and enjoy the beginning of this beautiful fall season!