April 2021 Market Update

The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to amaze me. Inventory levels remain extremely low, demand remains extraordinarily high, and this is still occurring even though rates have increased slightly over the last few weeks. I do not believe this will change or slow down any time in the near future. The level of demand is just too high.

We continue to see multiple contract situations as the new normal throughout much of Northern Virginia. It is common to see all contingencies being removed and prices set way above the original list price in these situations. In early March, I wrote a contract on a house in North Arlington that was listed for $935,000. It was a 4-bedroom, 3-bath home, and just 1,280 square feet. The offer was cash, close in two weeks with no contingencies, and my buyer offered $1,026,000. According to the listing agent, we were not even close! One of the 23 received offers went up to $1,081,000. Insane! This leaves 22 other active buyers still looking to own in that price point in Arlington – so again, I don’t see this market slowing any time soon. All the being said, the condo market is the only anomaly as most condos are sitting on the market.

So, what is going to happen is what I am often asked. My belief is that inventory will remain low for the foreseeable future as people have purchased or refinanced at exceptionally low rates. As rates increase, there will be little, if any, motivation to move. If someone has a $500,000 mortgage with an interest rate of 2.75%, what will motivate them to move to a home with a $750,000 mortgage at 4% or even higher? I think this is what will stagnate inventory levels over the next few years. People will only move if there is a genuine need to do so – like marriage, kids, schools, job, divorce, death, etc.

Speaking about interest rates, they have inched above 3% for the first time in several months, but please keep this in mind, they are still below where they were this same time last year and are still below historical lows mortgages. Earlier I mentioned rates at 4% or higher; I don’t believe we will be there for some time, so no need to worry about this happening. I foresee we will be in the low to mid 3’s for the remainder of the year.

As always, I am more than happy to speak with you about your situation in more detail as each situation is unique and personal.

Happy Spring!

September Market Update

My whole career I have been asked, “So, how’s the market?” Well, this year and more specifically, in the last few months, I have been asked this even more. It is a loaded question because it depends on whether you are a buyer, a seller, or if you are looking to rent and most importantly where you are looking to do any of these types of transactions.  After we clarify what they want to know, I find it is a lot of curiosity because people love to talk about real estate. It also is of interest to them because in our discussions I hear things like, “I don’t see any for sale signs in my neighborhood”, “when houses go up for sale in my area, they sell right away”, “my friend is looking for a house and they are losing out on multiple contracts” and many other similar comments so there is a genuine interest in “How’s the market”.

Overall, in Northern Virginia, the inventory on active resale homes is down over 31% from last year and units sold are virtually the same which means it is extremely competitive to be a buyer and if you price your house correctly, you can be a very happy seller. As always it is a hyper-local market so let’s take a deeper dive into the counties.

  • Arlington County – the Amazon Effect is keeping inventory low, median days on the market extremely low but interestingly enough, prices are not as high as you would think considering the supply and demand in that area. Closed sales are down as inventory is down and prices are up just 4%. Houses sell quickly – median days on market are just 9!
Statistic Jul YoY MoM
Total Sold Dollar Volume 182,179,254 down5.9% down7.5%
Closed Sales 266 down9.5% -0.4%
Median Sold Price $616,000 up1.3% +9%
Average Sold Price $684,884 up4% -7.2%
Median Days on Market 9 days down75.7% 0%
Average Days on Market 30 days down40% -16.7%
  • Fairfax County – Prices are up Year over Year but down Month over Month which indicates sellers are starting off too high and then making adjustments to get them sold. Days on market for Median Days and average days indicate a strong market but remember, price is critical to getting houses sold today. Closed sales are up Year over Year but are down Month over Month.
Statistic Jul YoY MoM
Total Sold Dollar Volume 1,027,443,963 up7.9% down5.9%
Closed Sales 1,680 up6.5% -4.8%
Median Sold Price $539,900 up2.3% -4.4%
Average Sold Price $612,668 up1.5% -1.1%
Median Days on Market 17 days down56.4% +6.3%
Average Days on Market 33 days down31.3% +6.5%
  • Loudoun County – the market in Loudoun is slowing a little as they are experiencing what other regions are – Year over Year gains but Month over Month declines. Median Days on Market jumped MoM but prices are maintaining in the area.  There is lots of pent up demand in Loudoun – stay tuned on their progress.
Statistic Jul YoY MoM
Total Sold Dollar Volume 408,811,460 up8.4% down2.8%
Closed Sales 747 up1.8% -1.2%
Median Sold Price $512,250 up8.5% -0.5%
Average Sold Price $549,478 up6.9% -1.4%
Median Days on Market 23 days down39.5% +43.8%
Average Days on Market 38 days down34.5% +22.6%
  • Prince William County – consistent with the other counties showing price reductions but an overall strong market as sales are strong and Days on Market are low. Prince William offers the lowest prices so more value!
Statistic Jul YoY MoM
Total Sold Dollar Volume 318,271,988 up5.4% down1.5%
Closed Sales 778 down0.4% 0%
Median Sold Price $385,000 up6.9% -2.5%
Average Sold Price $409,616 up5.9% -1.8%
Median Days on Market 24 days down41.5% +14.3%
Average Days on Market 38 days down19.2% +5.6%

Remember, within the counties, there is also a deeper dive that needs to be taken into consideration in neighborhoods and price points. Hopefully, this gives you a better idea of what is happening in our real estate market in Northern Virginia.  If you have any questions or concerns or if you are looking to make a move, please feel free to call me.

Scott’s Market Minute 5/25/18

It’s the last week of May and inventory levels have….. Check out Scott’s latest Market Minute message to find out what’s going on in Northern Virginia!

Give me a call if you would like to talk about your situation. I can be reached at 703-652-5777 or email me at scottmacdonald@remax.net  Have a great weekend!!!

Scott’s Market Minute 4/27/18

Inventory levels are up, interest rates are up, distressed inventory is also down – May is going to be a “lucky” month for sellers! Learn more about what’s going on in the Northern Virginia area real estate market in Scott’s latest message.

If you’d like to talk more about your situation, give me a call at 703-652-5777 or email me at scottmacdonald@remax.net.   Have a great weekend!!

Scott’s Weekly Market Update

Inventory levels are still low, but the market is just like the weather today “hot” (for January in Northern Virginia)! Learn more in Scott’s latest Market Minute message.

If you would like to talk about your specific situation, give me a call at 703-652-5777 or email me at scottmacdonald@remax.net

Scott’s Market Update

It’s November and the housing inventory is dropping as quick as…. ???
Learn more in Scott’s latest Market Minute message. #marketminute#REMAX

Is it time for you to sell your home?  Maybe you are looking to buy, well now is a great time!  Give me a call at 703-652-5777 or email me at scottmacdonald@remax.net to talk about your situation.

October Market Update

As the summer comes to an end, we’re seeing the real estate market continue to move steadily along. We don’t anticipate any drop off in sales as we enter the fall selling season. We have buyers looking to enter the home buying market – especially first-time buyers. Interest rates remain low, new loan programs are becoming available to help cash strapped purchasers and these opportunities are available in all price points. As I see it, our challenge will continue to be inventory levels, as many home owners are staying in their homes. They are doing so because they are not able to find homes to fit their needs in available move up price points. We are also seeing an increase in the amount of people that are renting their houses since they are gaining equity and have low interest rates/payments which allow them to have positive cash flow.

We also have three types of sellers – those who want to sell, those who need to sell and those who have to sell.  Those who want to sell typically take their houses off the market as we head into the holidays, therefore reducing inventory.  As long as we have houses to sell, the market will stay steady.  Let me know if you have any questions or concerns if you are considering selling – the market conditions just might be in your favor.

Lastly, please keep an eye on what is happening with the President’s Tax Reform – doubling the standard deduction, eliminating state and local tax deductions and only having three tax brackets. Industry professionals predict these may all affect home values by 10%.  Again, if these changes occur, it could affect housing as tax payers who claim mortgage interest deductions may no longer be able to claim this deduction, thereby eliminating the need to buy as a tax plan.  Housing is critical to our economy so implementing this plan could put damper on the economic recovery.  Let’s hope this reform doesn’t pass in its current form.

Halloween-Sold-Sign

Have a happy and safe Halloween!

Northern Virginia Real Estate, Housing Inventory and Snowmagedon 2016

Scott MacDonald video update about the local housing market statistics and the impact on buying and selling a home in Northern Virginia – even with Winter Storm Jonas and the possibility of Snowmageddon 2016!  click to play video

Scott Market Minute 2016JAN22

Now is a great time to buy and sell a house!

Contact Scott MacDonald 702-652-5777 Broker for RE/MAX Gateway for more information and a personal assessment of your housing goals.

Scott MacDonald

RE/MAX Gateway

How low will it go?

It has finally happened.  Inventory levels in Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, Arlington, Fauquier, Alexandria and all the cities in between have now dropped below 5,000 homes for sale.  We have just 4,692 properties on the market. We have not been this low in nearly a year.  This number is not an all time low – the first week of March in 2005 we had 1,652 houses for sale – this was the all time low for this region.  If you are curious, the all time high was the third week of November 2006 when we had 22,898 houses for sale. So as you can see, we are approaching an extreme situation in housing – nothing for home shoppers to buy.  A more balanced market would be in the 8,500 to 9,000 range – we are at about 50% of where we need to be.

So what does all of this mean?  If you are a seller, now is the time to put your house on the market because there is very little competition.  If you are a buyer, you will more than likely be in a multiple contract situation so be ready to put your best offer on the table initially.  Also, buyers will turn to new construction as an alternative to their housing needs as they can’t find suitable solutions in the resale market.  Lastly, prices should continue to increase – just need the appraisers to agree this is the situation.

What else is low and going lower?  Interest rates.  It is amazing that virtually every week the news is rates continue to hit new all time lows.  This makes now a great time to buy or refinance.

So, what is your opinion?  How soon will it be before we see an increase in inventory?  When will we see rates increase?  I’d love to hear your opinion so give me a call.