Mortgage & Finance
And the market goes on and on and on…
It is amazing what a difference our real estate market has experienced this year versus the last few years. Previously we were inundated with short sales, foreclosures, dropping prices and very little confidence in the market.
Today, we are at a low point in the number of short sales and foreclosures on 
the market since I started keeping track of them over two and a half years ago. In October of 2010, we had 1,460 short sales on the market, today we have only 386. Additionally, foreclosures are at a low point as well. In November of 2010, we had 516 foreclosures on the market and today we only have 178. Additionally, prices were falling in the Northern Virginia area. According to RBIntel.com our market prices bottomed out in February of 2009 with an average sales price of $307,225. Today our average sales price is $469,800.
We are still off our highs of 2006-2007, but we are headed in the right direction. All of this information coupled with low interest rates has restored confidence in our market.
Rates? Did I just mention rates? Yes I did and they are ridiculous! Yesterday I heard one of our clients locked in a rate of 3.25% with a lender credit of 2%. We continue to see rates decline which leads to the question of how low can they go before more people act on refinancing or purchasing? Only time will tell.
The last area I would like to touch on is our rental market. The inventory of active rentals remains low and interest in these properties remains high. At this time, many people prefer to rent over buying as they remain skittish about buying or are in a situation such as a recent short sale which prohibits them from being able to purchase. This situation has resulted in rental rates rising making investing a viable option for many people – maybe even you!
If you would like more information on how these numbers affect you whether buying or selling a house, or if you would like to discuss becoming an investor, pick up the phone and give me a call. I would love to speak with you about your situation in more detail.
Shock and awe…
The real estate market continues to be white hot for sellers who properly price their homes, get them in the right condition and have them staged. This makes it very competitive for buyers. We see multiple contracts on houses in all price ranges so buyers need to be prepared to be involved in situations like this and put their best foot forward when making their offer. We have been saying this for several months now and we do not see that this will change anytime soon.
There is one area that continues to shock and amaze me today and that is 
interest rates. It is an unbelievable phenomenon watching interest rates today. Who would have ever thought mortgage rates could be as low as they are today taking into consideration where we have been since the Mortgage Banker’s Association started tracking rates. Remember what happened in the early 80’s with rates at all-time highs in 18-19% range and even when I got into the business in 1988 rates were between 10 and 11%. We got excited when the rates were creeping below 10%. Then we watched as rates came down into the 6’s and thought they couldn’t go lower and they have. This week I saw a 30 year fixed interest rate at 3.5% with a lender credit. There was even an article asking if rates could go down to 3%. There has never been a better time to purchase a home, investment property or even refinance your existing mortgage(s). Please let us know how we can help you.
Summertime market…it’s gonna be fun!
The spring real estate market is hopping along as we enter the summertime “fun in the sun” buying and selling season. Our inventory levels remain very low for this time of year – we actually have seen inventory levels on the decline in recent weeks. Multiple contract situations are more the norm than the anomaly, which can be frustrating for buyers. Prices have stabilized but we need to see them increase to help out people in the area that are still underwater with their house values. Although we have people still underwater on their houses, distressed property inventory remains very low – only 11% of all inventory consists of short sales and foreclosures.
The big news this month seems to be the rise in consumer confidence in our area compared with the rest of the country. My feeling is people are becoming more optimistic in Northern Virginia because we have jobs and our housing market is strong. We have a 1.5 month’s supply of resale properties and a 1.1 month’s supply of rental properties. People are not only out looking at properties but they are actually buying houses. Agents are working hard and diligently working on listings and contracts. The environment around the office is fast paced and optimistic as the agents are busy helping our clients buy and sell houses. Our lenders and title partners are expressing a lot of the same sentiments with the market and its activity. In addition, there is a lot of “good” publicity surrounding the real estate market which is a welcomed reprieve from the last several years of nothing but negative news. All of this information will propel us into the summertime selling season so if you are looking at your options with real estate, give us a call.
So this is what Deja Vu feels like!
The real estate market reminds me of the Bill Murray movie Ground Hog’s Day because I continue to say very similar things each month. We have very low inventory of houses, fewer than 4,800 in all of Northern Virginia. It has been this low for over 5 weeks and we haven’t seen inventory levels this consistently low since 2005. Interest rates remain at historic lows and it appears as if they are going to stay this low through 2014 unless something unforeseen happens in the economy. Lastly, we continue to see a drastic decrease in distressed property inventory in Northern Virginia and the onslaught of foreclosures will not happen locally. We have just 592 short sales and 290 foreclosures on the market and Notice of Trustee sales are only averaging 2 pages per day. Short sales and Notice of Trustee sales lead to foreclosures and if we don’t have them, we won’t see them.
The one thing that we typically don’t see this time of year is the number of attendees at open houses we are currently seeing. It is more typical than not to hear our agents having 20-40 people attend an open house and receiving multiple contracts as a result. This type of activity is more likely to happen in the spring but warm weather and consumer confidence building has helped spur this activity. As I have said in the past, if sellers properly price their properties, have it in prime condition and have it staged, they are receiving multiple offers because buyers are buying.
What are we reading in the news about the rest of the country and the market that will indirectly affect us? While delinquencies and defaults slowly improve in the housing economy as a whole, FHA’s portfolio has not had the same good fortune. The woes of FHA are creating increased pressure on the agency to reduce risk and increase costs to its borrowers, most of whom are first time buyers. In December, about one of every 10 FHA mortgages or 9.73 percent, were seriously delinquent, or more than 90 days past due. Compare that to all mortgages, whose seriously delinquent rate fell to 7.3% in December from 7.8 a year earlier. For nine straight months, FHA delinquencies have risen while mortgages in general have improved. We will keep an eye on this for you and let you know when the costs increase. On a positive note for those going through short sales and loan modifications, President Obama Proposes Extending Tax Waiver on Mortgage Debt Forgiveness that is due to expire at the end of this year. The Act ensures that homeowners who received principal reductions or other forms of debt forgiveness on their primary residence do not have to pay taxes on the amount forgiven. In addition to this, some banks are paying people to aid in their short sales. JP Morgan Chase went national with short-sale incentive offers last year, paying up to $35,000 in some cases. Bank of America is testing incentives from $5,000 to $25,000 in Florida to see if they should be expanding to more states. Wells Fargo’s incentive offers range of less than $3,000 to $20,000. Short sales, even with incentive payments to borrowers, can save lenders money compared with the expenses involved in completing foreclosures. Let us know if you need our assistance with either of these scenarios.
If you have questions about your personal situation, please feel free to call us. We are here to help you with all of your real estate needs.
Is the spring market coming?
In Northern Virginia our inventory levels of active resale homes for sale continues to decline. We are down to just over 4,600 homes on the market and we have a 1.8 month supply of homes. Houses that went under contract the last 7 days hit a 6 month high this past week. In a nutshell, houses are selling. Why is this happening? Interest rates hit another record low, we are creating jobs here, rental rates are increasing and our population is growing putting more demand on housing.
Last week I was asked when will we see the spring market or in other words, when will more houses be coming on the market? Some people say when the banks start releasing foreclosures, some say mid-March, and some say when their price rise. Let’s analyze each of these responses.
So far we have not seen the foreclosures hit the market and as a matter of record, the inventory has actually decreased to a 6 month low with only 311 currently for sale. In addition, “Notice of Trustee sales” published have actually remained very low as well averaging only 3 pages per day versus substantially higher numbers in 2008-2010. Lastly, I started tracking short sale inventory just over 2 years ago and we are at an all-time low in this area as well – only 651 are for sale in Northern Virginia.
As far as the inventory levels increasing in mid-March, only time will tell but several agents have indicated they have houses in the process of being prepared to go on the market around this timeframe. If they are not only preparing them for sale but are going to price them accordingly, they will sell. Two properties we listed on Friday received multiple offers because they were price properly and in the right condition. And now for the statement, “when my price increases, I will sell” is a tougher one to answer for many people. Rise compared to what? When they were purchased? Compared to 2004-2007 prices? Compared with the last sale in their neighborhood? Until these questions can be answered, we can’t help them.
We continue to have one of the best real estate markets in the country and it will be this way for the foreseeable future. Please feel free to contact us to learn more about how this market affects you and your situation.
A great time to buy…now?
It is definitely an interesting time in real estate in Northern Virginia. We have extremely low inventory levels that remain below normal for this time of year. As an example in January of 2008, we averaged 15,500 active listings, in 2009 it was 10,200, in the year of Snowmagedon in 2010 it was 4,800 because people took their houses off the market and agents couldn’t get out and about to list them, in 2011 it was 5,800 and now we are at 4,700. What is interesting to note is the month’s supply of houses in the same time frame – 2008 it was 10.8, 2009 4.0 and since then it has been 2.3 in 2010, 2.8 in 2011 and this year 2.2. What this clearly indicates is there are buyers out in the marketplace looking for homes in the winter months – not just the spring months now. Interest rates remain very low – below 4% for 30 year fixed rates – jobs are being created here so people are moving into the area and rental rates are rising throughout Northern Virginia.
If your family circumstances, job status, or you just have the desire to sell your house and move up to a bigger home, now is a great time to do so. Houses that are priced right, in the right condition and staged properly are attracting offers. One of the biggest parts of this equation is the price – price sells today. Sellers cannot price a little high for negotiations as we have seen that they languish on the market in this situation. Price it competitively and it will sell.
Buyers have a great opportunity today. The housing affordability index is at an all-time high and in many cases house payments are less than rental payments even before considering the tax benefits of home ownership. For buyers looking for the long term benefits of home ownership, there historically has not been a better time. Prices are remaining stable, interest rates are low, and the housing industry is on the rebound meaning we have already hit the bottom and we are on the upswing if you were trying to time the market.
Whatever your situation is, we can help. Please feel free to contact us to discuss your personal needs in more detail and see if now is the right time for you to make a move.
Scott's Motivation and Real Estate Market Updates 