housing market

September 2025 Market Update

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From Frenzy to Balance: What Today’s Market Means for You

As summer comes to a close, we’re beginning to see the real estate market shift out of the unpredictable patterns we’ve experienced these past few months. The market in Northern Virginia has felt like a roller coaster ride – sales climbing one week, dipping the next, and interest rates moving up and down just as quickly. That kind of volatility has left many buyers and sellers wondering what’s really going on.

The encouraging news is that we’re starting to move toward a more stable and balanced market. For a long time, especially during the pandemic, it was a strong seller’s market. Homes were selling in a matter of days, often with multiple offers well over asking price, and buyers had little room to negotiate. That environment made it challenging for buyers and created very high expectations for sellers.

Now, things are changing. While certain homes in sought-after neighborhoods may still attract multiple offers, most properties are staying on the market a little longer. This means buyers have more breathing room—they can take time to view homes, compare options, and even negotiate important protections (called contingencies) into their contracts. For sellers, it’s important to adjust expectations: instead of expecting instant offers, the new “normal” may be a few weeks on the market before the right buyer comes along.

This shift is part of a natural cycle. Real estate always ebbs and flows, and right now we’re moving away from the frantic pace of the past several years into something more balanced. That’s not bad news, it’s healthy. A balanced market gives both buyers and sellers a fair shot.

Looking ahead, interest rates remain a key factor. The Federal Reserve is expected to make another adjustment in September. Many are hopeful this could ease mortgage rates, making buying more affordable. However, it’s worth remembering that the last time the Fed moved rates in November, mortgage rates actually increased. In other words, there’s still uncertainty. We’re in a transition period, and patience is essential until the market settles into a new rhythm.

If you’re a buyer, now may be an opportunity. With more homes staying on the market and less competition, you may be able to negotiate better terms than in years past. If you’re a seller, pricing your home correctly and presenting it well is more important than ever—homes that are priced right and show well are still selling quickly. No matter where you are in your real estate journey – buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of the headlines, I’m here to walk you through it and help you make the best decisions for your situation here in Northern Virginia.

August 2025 Market Update

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Is the Northern Virginia real estate market frozen? The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to move through one of the most peculiar periods in recent memory – one defined by contradiction, hesitation, and uncertainty. Why, you may ask? There are several factors at play: the economy, federal government layoffs impacting the entire region, higher-than-expected interest rates for an extended period, and buyer apathy. While summer typically brings more energy to the housing market, in recent years, this year feels… stuck.

Inventory remains flat. The number of homes coming to the market isn’t increasing in any meaningful way, and houses are staying on the market longer. We’re hovering at very low inventory levels, and yet homes aren’t selling as quickly as you might expect with a limited supply. Why? Because sales volume is stagnant, leaving both buyers and sellers confused about their next steps.

Uncertainty appears to be the new normal. Let’s break down the reasons discussed above further.

A major driver of this slowdown is the current economic climate. Consumers are wary. Whether it’s concerns about inflation, job market fluctuations, or the broader macroeconomic outlook, many potential buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for some clarity. Unfortunately, the only thing that seems consistent lately is unpredictability.

Interest rates are the elephant in the room. Higher-than-expected interest rates continue to weigh heavily on both buyers and sellers. For buyers, mortgage payments are significantly more expensive than they were just 18 months ago. For sellers, the idea of trading in a 3% mortgage for something north of 7% is a hard pill to swallow. As a result, homeowners are opting to “wait it out,” which is further contributing to the inventory standstill.

All this being said, we are experiencing a tale of two markets, which is perhaps the most baffling aspect of this market: its inconsistency. Why? On the one hand, we’re seeing well-located, properly priced, turnkey homes receive multiple offers—sometimes six or seven—within days of hitting the market. These homes continue to generate excitement and competition. On the other hand, we’re seeing some listings sit for weeks, sometimes going days without a single showing, or they are receiving lowball offers that don’t reflect the home’s value.

What’s the difference? Often, it’s the small things: pricing strategy, presentation, marketing, or the home’s location. Buyers today are more discerning, cautious, and highly sensitive to perceived value. They are willing to pay a premium, but only when they see clear justification for doing so.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers? If you’re a buyer, be aware that opportunities still exist, but patience is crucial. Be prepared to act quickly on the right home, but also understand that not every property will be a bidding war. In some cases, you may be able to negotiate. 

If you’re a seller, strategy is everything right now. This is not the market to “test the waters” with aspirational pricing. Homes that are priced correctly and show well will sell – often quickly. Those that miss the mark risk being ignored entirely.

Looking ahead, until there’s more certainty around interest rates or economic stability, we expect the market to remain uneven and choppy. Real estate is hyper-local, and even within Northern Virginia, we’re seeing pockets of high demand alongside areas that are lagging behind.

Now more than ever, experience and strategy matter. If you’re considering buying or selling, let’s discuss how to navigate this unpredictable market with confidence and clarity.

July 2025 Market Update

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What’s Really Happening in Real Estate?

We’re officially in the dog days of summer, and while it may feel like things are heating up, the real estate market (and the headlines surrounding it) can be a little confusing right now.

There’s been an ongoing tug-of-war at the national level between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump over interest rate policy. Many experts expected multiple rate cuts this year, but so far, we haven’t seen any. The Fed has held steady in recent meetings and has hinted that the earliest possible rate drop could come in September, if at all.

Why the hesitation? Powell is focused on inflation, closely monitoring economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). While inflation has ticked up slightly, it remains near the range the Fed originally targeted. Still, concerns about potential increases — especially due to tariffs and global market shifts — have kept the Fed cautious. This ongoing debate has even drawn in other political voices, making the topic a hot one this summer.

On the bright side, mortgage rates have been inching down slowly, which is great news for buyers. That said, inventory remains tight, especially here in Northern Virginia. Over the past two weeks, the region has only added about 98 new listings. That’s far from a surge. While condos are sitting a little longer on the market, well-priced single-family homes in good condition and desirable locations are still attracting multiple offers.

Yes, days on market have increased slightly — which is normal for this time of year — but demand is still very much present. Sellers should remain patient, and buyers should be prepared to act quickly if they find the right home. Don’t let media headlines mislead you — real estate isn’t just local; it’s hyper-local. Certain zip codes and price points are moving at different paces.

Navigating this market can be challenging without a knowledgeable guide. Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, the best strategy is to work with a trusted real estate advisor who understands the local trends and nuances.

If you have questions about what this market means for your goals — or if you’re wondering if now is the right time to make a move — I’m here to help.

June 2025 Market Update

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Will the real estate market hit the summertime blues…or bounce back?

As we roll into the summer season, many homeowners and buyers alike are asking the same question: Will the real estate market slow down as it usually does this time of year… or are we gearing up for a late-season rebound?

Right now, we’re seeing a shift — one that’s been building gradually but feels like it came on fast. Sales activity is slowing down, interest rates are continuing to rise, and mortgage applications have dipped over the past few weeks. Buyers are taking a more cautious, wait-and-see approach, watching not only where interest rates are headed but also where home prices might land.

We are firmly in an interest rate–driven market. When rates go up, buyer demand tends to go down, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now. Homes that may have sold in a matter of days earlier this year are now taking a little longer. In some cases, sellers are adjusting prices or offering incentives to attract serious buyers. There’s no panic — just a noticeable softening.This kind of quick market shift isn’t new. We’ve seen it before, especially since the pandemic. One moment, things are quiet. Next, homes are flying off the market. The real estate market has become increasingly sensitive to economic news, interest rate changes, and shifts in consumer confidence than ever before.

Historically, the summer months — especially July and August — bring a seasonal slowdown. People are traveling, kids are out of school, and real estate often takes a backseat to summer fun. But come September, activity usually picks up again. Whether that holds true this year will largely depend on interest rates.

If rates stabilize or drop, we could see more buyers re-enter the market. If they continue to rise, the current pause may last a little longer. Either way, we expect things to stay dynamic — and keeping a close eye on these trends will be important for both buyers and sellers.

Bottom line? Real estate is always moving, even when it slows. If you’re considering making a move this summer or fall, give me a call, let’s talk strategy. The more you understand the market, the better positioned you’ll be to make smart decisions. Happy Summer!

May 2025 Market Update

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Uncertainty Creates Opportunity

As we head into the heart of the spring market, one thing is clear — uncertainty is everywhere. With talks of tariffs being paused and reevaluated, and interest rates fluctuating more than usual, many buyers and sellers are left wondering what’s next. At the time of writing, mortgage rates are in the high 6% range. While that’s still lower than where we started the year and below where we were this time last year, it’s enough volatility to make some buyers hesitate. The market feels like it’s holding its breath, waiting to see where things land — but waiting too long can mean missing out.

Here’s the reality: waiting for prices to drop may not be the best strategy. Despite the shifting economy, home prices continue to rise in many areas due to low inventory and strong demand. Buyers who wait may find themselves paying more down the line, not less. Historically, trying to “time the market” rarely works as well as having a sound plan and being prepared to act when the right home appears.

For sellers, well-prepared homes are still commanding attention. When our clients follow expert guidance—staging their homes, making necessary improvements, and using professional photography and marketing — we’re seeing strong results. In fact, many of these listings are receiving multiple showings and competitive offers shortly after hitting the market. Presentation, pricing, and positioning remain the winning formula in today’s market.

Whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, it’s never been more important to have a trusted real estate advisor by your side. The right strategy, informed by current market data and local expertise, can make all the difference. We’re here to guide you through the uncertainty and help you make the most informed decisions possible.

Have questions or ready to make a move? We’re here to help. Wishing you and your family a safe and happy Memorial Day! And remember — opportunity often hides in uncertain times.

February 2025 Market Update

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The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to be full of surprises. Looking back at 2023, home sales in our region outpaced expectations, despite the challenges posed by higher interest rates. Many predicted rates would decrease, leading to increased sales. However, as rates remained elevated, the market didn’t slow down in Northern Virginia the way it did in other parts of the country.

Nationally, 2024 started with home sales dipping below 4 million — the lowest since 1995 and even lower than in 2023. However, projections indicate a modest rebound of about 2% this year, pushing sales back above the 4 million mark. Mortgage rates, which spent much of the past year above 7%, have recently settled in the mid-6% range. While some forecasts suggest rates may decrease, they are expected to remain between 6-7% for the foreseeable future.

Beyond interest rates, other factors could impact our housing market. Changes in administration policies, trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico, and potential tariffs could influence the cost of new construction of new homes, particularly as they relate to lumber and building materials. In addition, how will recent resignations impact the Northern Virginia real estate market? While widespread resignations don’t seem likely in many cases, the push for employees to return to the office could influence housing decisions. Some may choose to move closer to their workplace, while others might seek new job opportunities elsewhere, leading to shifts in housing demand across the region. These discussions and corporate restructuring may further shape the market, as professionals weigh the benefits of relocating for career stability or exploring opportunities in different areas.

With so many moving pieces in today’s market, having the right guidance is more important than ever. While the market has been challenging over the past two years, we’re seeing growing confidence among buyers and sellers. Many are adjusting to today’s interest rates, recognizing that real estate remains a solid long-term investment. The key to success in this market is understanding the trends, staying informed, and working with an experienced real estate professional who can help you navigate the complexities with confidence.

If you’d like to discuss your real estate goals, have any questions or want to discuss how these market changes might affect your plans, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’d love to help — give me a call anytime!

January 2025 Market Update | Another Year in the Books – Reflecting on 2024 and Looking Ahead to 2025

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Another year has come and gone, and what a year it was! So much happened—and some things didn’t happen as predicted—that it was a whirlwind for the real estate industry. The most significant changes came with updates to our industry practices, particularly regarding commissions.

One major shift was that commissions are no longer allowed to be published in MLS systems or websites connected to them. Additionally, buyers and agents are now required to sign an Exclusive Right to Represent Buyer Agreement before viewing homes. While this has been the law in Virginia since 2012, it’s now more crucial than ever to determine how an agent’s commission will be paid if it isn’t negotiated within the contract. On the bright side, these changes have brought greater transparency to how real estate professionals are compensated.

What Didn’t Change in 2024?

Despite widespread predictions, interest rates did not fall as expected. Many anticipated rates would dip into the mid-5% range, but they stayed elevated throughout the year, even reaching the mid-7% range. This kept many homeowners from selling, resulting in continued low inventory instead of the expected rise in homes for sale.

As a result, sales remained flat compared to 2023 and may even show a slight decrease when final numbers come in. Similarly, while some forecasted a drop—or even a “crash”—in home prices, the opposite occurred. Prices increased, which added to the wealth of homeowners. However, rising prices and rates made affordability a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.

Another area where expectations fell short was regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. While many predicted six cuts in 2024, there were only three. I felt six was ambitious, so I predicted three, which turned out to be correct.

What’s Ahead in 2025?

Here are my predictions for the coming year:

  • Mortgage rates will remain volatile but slightly lower by year-end, likely in the high 5% to low 6% range.
  • Inventory levels will remain low but improve slightly as more baby boomers age in place and homeowners stay “rate locked” in their current mortgages.
  • Home prices will continue to rise due to low inventory and strong demand.
  • Affordability will remain a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.
  • The Fed will cut rates three times, fewer than predicted earlier.
  • Fewer agents will remain in the business due to declining transactions and commission compression.
  • Homeowner’s insurance rates will rise due to the impact of natural disasters, making insurance harder to secure in some areas.
  • Unemployment will increase slightly but remain below 5%, leading to a softer labor market.
  • Inflation should stay manageable, in the range of 2.5–3%, supported by Fed actions and economic conditions.
  • Now more than ever, having a Realtor® represent you is critical to navigating the evolving real estate landscape.

As we step into 2025, it’s clear that the real estate market will continue to present its challenges, but with the right guidance, opportunities abound. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply understand how these changes affect you, I’m here to help. Together, we can navigate this ever-changing market with confidence.

Here’s to a prosperous and fulfilling 2025 — Happy New Year!

December 2024 Market Update

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And just like that, the holiday season is here! Another year is almost in the books — it’s amazing how quickly time flies. So, what’s happening now in the real estate market, and what might we expect in the months ahead? Let’s dive in.

Currently, the demand for housing remains strong. Even during Thanksgiving weekend, buyers were actively attending open houses and scheduling showings across the area. Interest rates have stabilized, and buyers seem to be adapting, even as prices remain at record highs. Why are prices climbing despite higher interest rates? It all comes down to inventory — or the lack of it. While lower inventory is typical during this time of year, we’re seeing even fewer homes available than in many recent years, excluding last year. This scarcity is putting upward pressure on prices.

Looking ahead, the real estate market will largely be shaped by interest rates and potential shifts in policy as we approach 2025. If rates decrease, demand could increase, driving prices higher and creating a more competitive market. Conversely, higher rates could lead to reduced demand, longer listing times, and potentially stable or lower prices. Adding to the mix, a new administration on the horizon brings the possibility of impactful policy changes. Historically, new leadership has often introduced initiatives to stimulate the housing market, such as programs to boost inventory, encourage homeownership, or make financing more accessible. While specifics remain uncertain, both interest rates and policy shifts will play key roles in shaping a potentially exciting and favorable environment for buyers and sellers alike.

On another note, you might wonder if now is a good time to sell your home. The answer depends on your situation. If you need to move soon, now is a great time. Buyer demand is high, and those looking during the holidays are typically serious buyers, not just browsers. Additionally, homes often look their best when decorated for the season, which can help make a strong impression. However, if you simply want to sell, waiting until after the holidays could be beneficial, as the buyer pool isn’t likely to disappear unless rates climb significantly. Either way, I’m happy to discuss your options and help you decide the best path forward.

As we wrap up the year, I wish you and your loved ones a joyful holiday season filled with warmth, laughter, and cherished memories. Happy Holidays! 

October 2024 Market Update | Why Fall 2024 is Perfect for Buying or Selling Your Home

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I often get asked whether now is a good time to buy or sell a home, so let’s look at each scenario and break it down.

If you’re thinking about selling, consider the reasons behind your move. Is it for a job relocation? Are you retiring or needing more (or less) space? Maybe a life change, like marriage or a family transition, has prompted you to think about selling. If you’re motivated by one of these reasons, now is a great time to sell.

Why? Because inventory levels are low, which means less competition for you as a seller. Plus, interest rates are currently at their lowest point in two years, so buyers are out there looking! If your home is priced well and in good condition, you’re in a strong position to sell. And with fall in full swing, buyers are eager to make a move before the holidays. It’s a time when people are focused on settling in before winter, which can make for motivated and serious buyers. If you’re ready, this season offers a perfect window of opportunity to sell your home.

Fall is often considered a sweet spot in real estate. The weather is cooler, making it more comfortable for buyers to view homes, and the natural beauty of fall can showcase your home in its best light. The changing leaves, cozy atmosphere, and crisp air help buyers picture themselves settling into a new space before the holiday season kicks off. Plus, homes tend to look even more inviting with festive fall décor, making them easier to envision as a place for family gatherings and celebrations. Selling in the fall allows you to tap into buyers’ desire to find a home and get settled before the hustle and bustle of the holidays.

For buyers, fall is also a fantastic time to make your move. Interest rates have dropped, and there are homes available in a variety of price ranges and locations. The demand is strong, and if rates dip further, it could lead to even more competition, making it harder to find the right home. Prices are still rising, though at a slower pace, so waiting could mean paying more down the road. Fall also offers a cozy, beautiful backdrop for house hunting—imagine finding your dream home before Thanksgiving or the first frost! If you find a home that fits your needs, is in the right location, and works with your budget, now is the time to act! Remember, if rates fall, you can always refinance later. As the saying goes, “Don’t wait to buy real estate; buy real estate and wait.”

If you have any questions or want to discuss your situation further, feel free to reach out today. Let’s make this fall season the perfect time for you to achieve your real estate goals!

June 2024 Market Update

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What do you think the real estate market will be like this summer? Will buyers be experiencing the summertime blues with a lack of inventory, interest rates in the 7% range, increasing prices, and strong demand from other buyers, keeping it a tight seller’s market? Will sellers do the right things to sell their homes by properly pricing their house, staging so it is ready for market, and be able to choose from multiple buyers, making it difficult for some people to become homeowners?

Will interest rates come down with the spread between 10-year yield and 30-year fixed interest rates coming closer together? If this happens, will more people put their homes on the market because they won’t have as much mortgage rate lock-in effect? Will inventory increase because the only thing people like about their house is their interest rate, and they are ready to move? Will buyers stay put if rates don’t come down because of affordability issues?

The most consistent theme in these questions is interest rates, right? Yes, but also inventory. These are the major factors that dictate the real estate market and, of course, pricing. If we see fewer houses on the market coupled with lower rates, we will see more buyers and higher prices. If we see higher rates, we will have fewer buyers and, hence, more inventory, so prices will moderate and, in some cases, may come down.

Nationally, we are seeing more houses for sale, but locally, we have only slightly more inventory than last year, which is way below the 5-year average for active homes for sale. Again, demand remains high in our area, insulating us from broader market trends and news headlines about the real estate market around the country. That’s why having a knowledgeable agent is crucial to understand local market conditions and trends. If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell a home, I am here to help.

Please feel free to reach out to discuss my answers to the questions above. Enjoy the long days and warm temperatures!