What have people been asking about the market lately?

There a few topics being reported by the media recently and we have been asked about as real estate professionals as well.  One is “is there going to be a double dip in housing prices?” another is “has your market hit bottom and how can you tell?”, “where are the foreclosures?” and “what do you see is happening in the market?”

Let’s answer these one at a time.  First, is there going to be a double dip in housing prices?  The answer is yes and no.  It depends upon where you live.  If your area continues to lose jobs, houses continue to languish on the market, foreclosed properties and short sales dominate your housing sale’s landscape, yes your market has a very good chance of seeing a double dip in housing prices because, unfortunately, these are all recipes for housing price declines.  As a nation, we have seen the overall housing prices drop 33% from their highs which is even worse than the depression era when housing prices decreased 31%.  Conversely, if you have job growth, brisk housing sales, and the housing market is not riddled with distressed properties, you will see stable to increasing prices.  It is a simple formula – jobs equal a strong housing market, no jobs equals a lousy housing market and consequently price declines.

The next one is, “has your market hit bottom and how can you tell?”  This one can be answered very much like the first one.  Are jobs coming back or have layoffs stopped?  Are people moving back into your area?  Are sale signs turning to sold signs?  How are the inventory levels on houses for sale?  With this question, be sure to take careful consideration of whether the houses were removed from the market or actually sold.  How are the days on the market?  What is the month supply of houses?  If these areas mentioned are flat or decreasing, you have seen the bottom or are getting close to it.  You are almost there if you are not already.

The last one is more difficult to answer, “Where are the foreclosures?”  We have been told on numerous occasions that banks are sitting on inventory waiting to release them on the market but fail to do so because they don’t want to take the losses on their books all at one time.   We have heard stories of the foreclosure process taking in excess of 400 days in certain states and evictions in others taking up to 900 days.  There are in excess of 6.5 million people 30 days late or more on their mortgages.  We don’t know how many will cure, how many will default or even specifically where they are but it has been reported that a majority of them are in the sand states.  The sand states make up Nevada, Arizona, California, and Florida.

Most everyone you hear from in the media, speak with or read about all concur that we need the housing market to come back so the economy can recover fully.  It seems to be a growing consensus amongst our Realtors that the media needs to help grow consumer confidence in the housing market and get the economy back on track.  In one of my upcoming blogs, we will discuss mortgage reform and its impact on the housing recovery.

It is time to understand the housing market so you can intelligently discuss this with clients, acquaintances, and others you meet.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!              

More business, more business, more business!

Many people ask in our one on ones what is the best way to
get more business and my answer over the last several years has been consistent
and won’t change – it is to work by referral. 
So, the next question is how do you work and get more results by
referral?  It isn’t rocket science.  You need to be involved in life –get out and
get in front of people.  Develop yourself
as a “people” person. 

The first step is to give more in value than you ever expect
to receive back.  Get to know about the
business the other person is involved in, the charities they embrace, the cause
that most interests them and then ask how you can help through referrals,
participation or in any other way they need help.  By giving yourself without expectations of getting
anything in return will get you further faster in reaching your goals.

Next is to continuously grow your database.  As you get out in front of people and help
them with their areas of interest, you will naturally be introduced to more
people and the more people you serve the more you will get in return. 

So, the next question is how do you grow your database?  The answer is to get in front of people
through associations, coaching kids, get involved in schools, charities, hold
open houses, meet your neighbors, just do whatever it takes to get yourself
into social situations and ask to serve. 
The more visible you are, the opportunities you give yourself to be
perceived as a giver of value, time, resources, and expertise, the more likely
you are to receive business in return.

Above all, it is important to put other’s interests
first.  When you help others with their
challenges, issues or concerns and you are seen as someone who cares, you will
once again, receive business.  It is a
natural instinct for most people to want to give back if you continuously give
of yourself and put others interests ahead of yours.

It is your talents, your education, your desire to better
yourself and most importantly, your attitude that makes you, you.  Always keep in mind you are the biggest asset
you have to give to others.  Therefore,
it is of utmost importance that you become a continuous learner and
teacher.  Seek opportunities to show case
your talents.  Put yourself in the
position of being a resource to others by what and who you know.

Once you put all of these pieces – and a few more – in
place, you must be open to and ready to receive.  Be ready and able to help and give all of
yourself in these endeavors.  It is also
important to remember to be grateful. 
Thank those who give to you, serve them well and more will come.

As previously mentioned, it is not rocket science but these
are the stepping stones to a long and prosperous career.  Get it? 
Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!



Yesturday’s Economic Summit at GMU

Eco summit 001

Michael Fratantoni 


-The true unemployment number is up to 13.3% (people who can no longer claim and still don’t have a job) but is report as 9.7% – it will peak midyear next year to a reported 10.2 % similar to the early 80’s

-No pressure on inflation –some deflation happening right now to keep it in check –as an example energy prices are down – a barrel of oil is in the $70’s when a price of $90 to $100 is normal

-Stock market losses $6 trillion slight rebound in Q1 & Q2

– New home sales lowest on record in 50 yrs

-Housing prices nationally are not going to rise until 2011 and won’t stabilize until mid 2010

-The Federal Reserve is largest buyer of MBS 60% currently and they hold $850 billion loans currently they have gone from 0% to 60 % this year and want to go back to 0% by year end.  Will going to 0% add volatility to market?  This is something to watch over the next 6 months when Fed leaves market increase in rates by .25 basis points – Just saw the Fed will buy MBS until March of 2010

-Theme things are looking up slightly but we have huge hole to climb out of

-FHA represented only 2% of loans in previous years.  This year they represent 45%!

-National delinquency survey show 14% of borrowers are 90 day or more late 2.5 million loans

-Prime fixed rate loans 28 million and many of those are reaching seriously delinquency rates – more than 90 days

-Delinquencies & foreclosures are delayed or lag behind employment trends

-Delinquencies – we are up because of jobs being lost

-25% of option arms have been modified or foreclosed on not the problem media has mentioned and continues to mentions as the problem in mortgage market

-Watch bill HR 1728 – Barney Frank

-Allen Jones BOA SS expert is available to us about Short Sales and BOA


Frank Nothaft

-Its going to get worse much worse slower recovery than previous recessions

-After end of 1991 recession unemployment peaked 15 months later

-After end of 2001 recession peaked 19 months later

-Bernanke says we may be out of recession – the question is how long before we peak with unemployment after this recession

-$15-17 billion is the cost to extend tax credit.  The challenge is too many politicians say they didn’t approve of spending gov’t funding to stimulate economy so even though they understood the need to extend they have politically painted themselves into a corner

-Freddie Mac National rebound of prices bottoms out in 2010 and it is 2011 before rebounding

-Lowest interest rate in 50 years

-Prime loans are performing worst since the 30’s – the depression

-Subprime 8 to 10% of loans represent over 35% of foreclosures

-9% of all loans are subprime but they represent 35% of foreclosures

13% of all loans are FHA and they represent 10% of foreclosures

15% of all loans are Prime/Arms and they represent 28% of foreclosures

63% of loans are Prime and Alt-A Arms and represent 27% of foreclosures

-4.2 million seriously delinquent 90 days behind

-To determine if loan is owned by Freddie Mac check out – http://www.makinghomesaffordable.com or http://www.Freddiemac.com

Lawrence Yun


No housing bubble it was a credit market bubble

We are overshooting bottom & need stimulus to nudge further back to make our market “normal” again

-From typical NAR survey 3000 responses – HVCC appraisal survey resulted in 30,000 responses1/3 had properties not close due to appraisals

Prices are below fundamental values

All cash purchases are 20 % of market typically low single digits 8 %

Foreclosures will rise because of toxic issues of unemployment & underwater buyers

Full builder recovery not until 2011

Our prices locally are down 20 % were 33 %

Stock market is at 1 year highs

Support tax credit extension  – Wall Street got $700 billion whole economic stimulus $800 billion extending the tax credit will only be $15 billion

NAR is on FB why aren’t you?

See his presentation below!

Stephen Fuller


View his updated slides in the link below!

Look for collaboration amongst our peers, share data, share ideas, work together get along 

We in DC are better at looking at bad news!

Dr. Frank Nothaft

Dr. Michael Fratantoni 

Dr. Lawrence Yun 

Dr. Stephen Fuller