real estate market

Coast to Coast “Buzz” – Market Rebound!

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As we enter the 4thquarter of the year, we continue to see strong sales in real estate, low inventory levels of existing homes on the market and phenomenally low interest rates.  I just got back from the RE/MAX California-Hawaii Regional meetings and all the buzz was how the market is on the rebound and how there has never been a better time to buy a home.

It was funny, as I was headed to the airport back home yesterday, the taxi driver overheard my phone conversations.  When I was finally off the phone, he asked if I was in real estate.  When I confirmed his suspicion, even he commented – unsolicited – that more people should be buying a home today.  He had no real estate experience and he couldn’t understand why people were paying more in rent than if they were to buy under the current conditions.  He even made the comment that workers at 7-11 could really buy a house today because they could actually qualify for a mortgage -not like wat was happening in the past.

West Coast to East Coast – the “Buzz” is Market Rebound!

We are at historically high affordability rates for home ownership which makes today a great time to be a home owner or investor.  From the investor’s side of the equation, there are many people who cannot buy because of past history, some are only relocating temporarily to the area, and some are just plain old gun shy to buy because of the negative housing market over the last 5 years.  Therefore, with prices down from the all-time highs but making their way up the ladder, a good renter pool, great financing options for investors – now is the time to get in the game!  Home ownership is a long term investment strategy that can pay big dividends later.  To learn more about becoming an investor, call us today.  We would be happy to speak with you about your financial goals and objectives.

So this is what Deja Vu feels like!

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The real estate market reminds me of the Bill Murray movie Ground Hog’s Day because I continue to say very similar things each month.  We have very low inventory of houses, fewer than 4,800 in all of Northern Virginia.  It has been this low for over 5 weeks and we haven’t seen inventory levels this consistently low since 2005.  Interest rates remain at historic lows and it appears as if they are going to stay this low through 2014 unless something unforeseen happens in the economy.  Lastly, we continue to see a drastic decrease in distressed property inventory in Northern Virginia and the onslaught of foreclosures will not happen locally.  We have just 592 short sales and 290 foreclosures on the market and Notice of Trustee sales are only averaging 2 pages per day.  Short sales and Notice of Trustee sales lead to foreclosures and if we don’t have them, we won’t see them.

The one thing that we typically don’t see this time of year is the number of attendees at open houses we are currently seeing.  It is more typical than not to hear our agents having 20-40 people attend an open house and receiving multiple contracts as a result.  This type of activity is more likely to happen in the spring but warm weather and consumer confidence building has helped spur this activity.  As I have said in the past, if sellers properly price their properties, have it in prime condition and have it staged, they are receiving multiple offers because buyers are buying.

What are we reading in the news about the rest of the country and the market that will indirectly affect us?  While delinquencies and defaults slowly improve in the housing economy as a whole, FHA’s portfolio has not had the same good fortune.  The woes of FHA are creating increased pressure on the agency to reduce risk and increase costs to its borrowers, most of whom are first time buyers.  In December, about one of every 10 FHA mortgages or 9.73 percent, were seriously delinquent, or more than 90 days past due.  Compare that to all mortgages, whose seriously delinquent rate fell to 7.3% in December from 7.8 a year earlier.  For nine straight months, FHA delinquencies have risen while mortgages in general have improved.   We will keep an eye on this for you and let you know when the costs increase.  On a positive note for those going through short sales and loan modifications, President Obama Proposes Extending Tax Waiver on Mortgage Debt Forgiveness that is due to expire at the end of this year.  The Act ensures that homeowners who received principal reductions or other forms of debt forgiveness on their primary residence do not have to pay taxes on the amount forgiven.  In addition to this, some banks are paying people to aid in their short sales.  JP Morgan Chase went national with short-sale incentive offers last year, paying up to $35,000 in some cases.  Bank of America is testing incentives from $5,000 to $25,000 in Florida to see if they should be expanding to more states.  Wells Fargo’s incentive offers range of less than $3,000 to $20,000.  Short sales, even with incentive payments to borrowers, can save lenders money compared with the expenses involved in completing foreclosures.  Let us know if you need our assistance with either of these scenarios.

If you have questions about your personal situation, please feel free to call us.  We are here to help you with all of your real estate needs.

A great time to buy…now?

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It is definitely an interesting time in real estate in Northern Virginia.  We have extremely low inventory levels that remain below normal for this time of year.  As an example in January of 2008, we averaged 15,500 active listings, in 2009 it was 10,200, in the year of Snowmagedon in 2010 it was 4,800 because people took their houses off the market and agents couldn’t get out and about to list them, in 2011 it was 5,800 and now we are at 4,700.  What is interesting to note is the month’s supply of houses in the same time frame – 2008 it was 10.8, 2009 4.0 and since then it has been 2.3 in 2010, 2.8 in 2011 and this year 2.2.  What this clearly indicates is there are buyers out in the marketplace looking for homes in the winter months – not just the spring months now.  Interest rates remain very low – below 4% for 30 year fixed rates – jobs are being created here so people are moving into the area and rental rates are rising throughout Northern Virginia. 

If your family circumstances, job status, or you just have the desire to sell your house and move up to a bigger home, now is a great time to do so.  Houses that are priced right, in the right condition and staged properly are attracting offers.  One of the biggest parts of this equation is the price – price sells today.  Sellers cannot price a little high for negotiations as we have seen that they languish on the market in this situation.  Price it competitively and it will sell.

Buyers have a great opportunity today.  The housing affordability index is at an all-time high  and in many cases house payments are less than rental payments even before considering the tax benefits of home ownership.  For buyers looking for the long term benefits of home ownership, there historically has not been a better time.  Prices are remaining stable, interest rates are low, and the housing industry is on the rebound meaning we have already hit the bottom and we are on the upswing if you were trying to time the market.

Whatever your situation is, we can help.  Please feel free to contact us to discuss your personal needs in more detail and see if now is the right time for you to make a move.

Real estate normal?

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What is the new normal in real estate:

Today I am going to share with you a few ideas that are going to help you get on to a successful year in 2012 – you will also hear a few ideas from other agents that they have planned to make this their best year ever as well. The important thing to remember is to only adapt 6 of the strategies. If you try to do too many, you will be overwhelmed and not do any. I recommend starting with 6 things you are not doing today and incorporate them into your business. Once you have mastered 6 add another one in until mastered and then add another and so on. In addition, it is important to set strategies for accomplishing what you set out to do and review them regularly. You are in business for yourself but not by yourself so partner with someone in the room and hold each other accountable – meet before or after training, before or after a real estate exchange – make it easy for you but the big thing is to just do it.

When looking at the strategies you are going to put in place, you need to be clear and specific about what you want to accomplish and write them down. Know what roadblocks and obstacles you will need to overcome to achieve what you want to do and then how you will overcome them. What will you need to do to develop the skills and instill the discipline within yourself to make them happen. You will need deadlines, detailed plans of action – 5 or so for each action item, and have them where you can review them regularly. Lastly, think about and visualize your end result and what it will be like when you have accomplished what you have set out to do.

• Be positive – have the right attitude and eliminate complaining from your life • I like the “theme” of the day – will you do it?

• You are going to have to work more focused and be more intentional

• You are going to have to sell yourself passively and aggressively – explain

• Training is going to be paramount – especially in financing – increase your skills by attending seminars, getting a designation, going to REIX, office trainings, you need to be good at what you do to build referrals

• Video is going to be important – Casey Anthony is doing video diaries – video houses, your listings, neighborhoods, how’s the market, etc.

• Networking is going to be critical – find a group, start a group, join a chamber, Rotary club, coach kids in sports, join a PTA, get involved in a charity, become involved in something

• Learning and interpreting market trends – you have to know your numbers such as inventory levels and types of inventory, prices, DOM, people love to hear this

• Stay on top of values by previewing – especially new homes as they will continue to have an impact on the market – this is a great way to start with video. Video your house of the week, your bargain of the week, or whatever you want to call it.

• Read blogs for more information, see what others are saying about the market. You have to know what your competition is up to and what better way to learn than to read about their thoughts

• Start a blog and of course add video. Write about neighborhoods, your listings, interactions with agents, clients, trends, your services, how’s the market?

• Set your personal business standard and stick to it. Write the personal notes, make the phone calls, stop by and visit your past clients or meet new ones and track your daily conversations.

• Hold open houses on the right houses

• Track your business, determine what gives you the best results and do more of it.

Market, market, market!

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How’s the market – this is a question so many people want to know the answer to on a regular basis. My answer is, it depends.

Are you a buyer? If so, the answer is definitely yes. Interest rates remain at historically low levels, prices are stable in most areas and increasing in others. If houses are on the market now, the sellers are serious and you can negotiate a good deal. The monthly expense of renting is equivalent to owning in many cases, if not higher. In addition, each payment made for the home owner goes towards the loan balance giving the owner equity over time adding to the owner’s personal wealth. Renting only goes to making landlords wealthy. Other reasons to buy include pride in ownership, sense of community, stability and the ability to improve the property without permission from a landlord – just to name a few.

If you are a seller, what is the price range of your property and where is it located? Every market is different and each property should be looked at individually. There are pockets throughout Northern Virginia where prices are escalating but further out, it isn’t the case. In Centreville as an example, the average sales price of detached homes has dropped every month since July. In South Riding, houses priced between $550,000-650,000 have not had a sale in nearly 70 days. This is not the case closer in towards Vienna, Falls Church and Arlington. Houses are selling quickly and for top dollar. However, in these areas higher priced condos – especially one bedroom units are staying on the market much longer.

In all of these markets, houses and town houses that have compelling prices, not necessarily the ones that are priced right or priced at market values, are the ones that are attracting multiple offers. For houses to sell quickly in today’s market, price is the leading indicator followed by staging, condition and location. Luckily, our distressed property inventory remains low relative to the rest of the country. We are not seeing the influx of foreclosed properties which definitely affects values.

Our unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the country in Northern Virginia – 4.9%, our wages are amongst the highest in the country and consumer confidence is higher here than elsewhere so we are anticipating a strong 2012 in the housing market.

As you can see, it is not a simple question to answer. Each person’s situation is different and therefore you should ask a Gateway professional for detailed information specifically about you. If someone answers, “unbelievable” or “great” be wary. Get it? Got it? Good!

Oh what a night…

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We had another great real estate exchange last night.   There was a lot of banter back and forth about our free trip to Vegas for the RE/MAX Convention in March and who was going to win the trip and how.  Great team building and networking as usual before the event.

Topics that were discussed:

  • Virginia home sales report published quarterly by VAR and the great information available through this report
  • Information on rental rates
  • The lobbying effort upcoming in the House on raising the high loan limits back up to pre-October 1st deadlines
  • Refinance activity
  • Home ownership rates
  • Appreciation rates nationally and locally – we are way ahead of the curve year over year but are down month over month, a trend we need to watch
  • The Bank of America penalties to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and why
  • Fannie Mae’s quarterly losses and the combination of losses between Freddie and Fannie and why were bonuses paid
  • Foreclosures on the rise nationally but so far, we don’t see it here and the indicators of why we don’t see them yet
  • Bechtel is relocating 625 jobs to Reston and they are leasing nearly 200,000 square feet
  • 4 ways to reduce your taxes and a reminder we have accountants coming to Chantilly to discuss tax planning for 2012 on November 18th at 10AM
  • And lastly, the National Enquirer portion of the show – celebrity purchases and sales plus incomes of the top CEO’s in the Washington Metro Area
  • Pat Cunningham updated us on HARP, the Italian debt crisis and what that means to mortgage interest rates and the value of HUD homes.

Enjoy the video but better yet – attend the next one in Ashburn at Clyde’s on the 16th from 1-3PM.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

2012…what will it bring?

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I was recently asked to provide some answers to the following questions for the RISMedia’s Real Estate Magazine…

1.  As we wrap up the fourth quarter of 2011, has this year panned out as you expected it to? Were there any major surprises…good or bad?   

This year was definitely a little more challenging than expected with all of the financing changes that occurred as far as the tightening of credit, increase in FHA MI, and continued issues with appraisals but overall we still are having a great year.  We opened a fourth office and agents are affiliating with us which is great.  Each year, I do my Top 10 predictions for the upcoming year and I hit on some, missed on others.  The best miss was I had predicted interest rates would be above 6% and as we all know, I couldn’t have been any further off which is good.  For the best hit, I predicted we would see new home sales prices come down and as a result we would see more new home sales and we did – at least in Northern Virginia we did.  Toll Brother’s had a record year in South Riding, a community next to our Chantilly office, selling 110 houses in their fiscal year which ended in October.  The community where our Ashburn office is located, Brambleton sold 354 houses in 2010; the 8th best-selling community in the country has sold over 500 houses YTD.

 

2.  In your opinion, what will be the most significant drivers of business in 2012 and how are you preparing your company to take advantage of them? 

In my opinion, there are a few.  Investors will continue to play a huge role in our market.  Educating agents on how to work with investors, helping them get involved in property management and learn to market themselves to attract more investors and tenants to ensure success in this arena. On the flip side of investors are first time buyers.  As rents increase, with the interest rate environment we are currently in, buying may be a better option for many would be tenants.  So having a plan of action to help first time buyers is extremely important.  Although interest rates have been at record lows, they have not motivated huge numbers of buyers to enter the market but a sharp increase in rates could be devastating to the housing recovery so keeping rates low is critical and educating the public on the true cost of home ownership is critical.  In addition, HAMP 2.0, if successful will help keep in their homes longer, this will help stabilize neighborhoods and prevent further foreclosures plus it will aid in increasing consumer confidence.  So being a trusted advisor to our past clients, letting them know about this opportunity is important to growing their business as they are a trusted advisor.  We also need to lobby RPAC to keep the Mortgage Interest Deduction as well as prevent the implementation of 20% down payment loans so getting our agents involved in RPAC is a focus next year as well.

3.  What are your predictions for consumer confidence in 2012? What issues stand to most significantly impact consumer confidence next year and what strategies will you employ to help restore confidence?  

If the press continues to pump out negative information on the economy and housing instead of putting a positive spin on what is happening and jobs are not restored, consumer confidence will stay low.   It is critical that agents get the word out about their market as each market is local and even hyper local.  Consumer confidence will be a key for us to continue to drive sales locally.  Our market in Northern Virginia is unlike any other in the country.  Our distressed property inventory is only 18% of our market, as such, foreclosures and short sales are not a driving force, our unemployment rate in Northern Virginia is in the 5% range, and we only have a 2.9 month supply of houses.  It is our job to get this information out to our clients and consumers to dispel the negative news they hear virtually daily on the housing market.  We need to continue to let them consumers know that if their employment is stable, the house is right for them and their family, interest rates are phenomenal and now is the right time to buy. So education is the key.  Blogging, videos, email campaigns and direct mail are how we plan to get the word out to the public.