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December 2025 Market Update

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Treading Water, Tight Inventory, and What’s Coming Next

As we wrap up November and head into the final stretch of the year, the Northern Virginia real estate market is holding a familiar patteAs we wrap up November and head into the final stretch of the year, the Northern Virginia real estate market is holding a familiar pattern – tight inventory, steady demand, and numbers that continue to show how limited supply is shaping activity. From October to November, our available inventory dropped by another 25%. We normally expect some seasonal slowing this time of year, but this is more than the typical holiday dip. We were already operating with low inventory, and removing a quarter of the available homes in just 30 days only adds more pressure to an already thin market.

Not surprisingly, sales followed the same direction. Closed sales fell 23% over the same period, but not because buyers aren’t interested. The demand is there; we’re just short on homes to sell. When the right property hits at the right price, it still draws attention, and in many cases, competition. Sellers continue to benefit from only 1.8 months of inventory, which supports pricing, but makes it tough for buyers who are waiting for something to fit their needs.

There is one encouraging piece of news – interest rates today are lower than they were at this time last year. That’s helping maintain buyer activity, even as we move deeper into the slower holiday season. People are still watching the market, still searching, and many are ready to move when the right opportunity appears. Demand hasn’t disappeared; it’s simply patient.

Economically, we’re in a middle ground. Inflation continues to cool, growth has slowed but remains steady, layoffs are happening in pockets, the stock market moves, but trends upward overall, and consumers are still spending—just with more caution. It’s not a boom, and it’s not a recession. We’re treading water, and in many ways, the housing market is doing the same.

A key factor right now is inflation. It has been moving consistently in the right direction, and because of that, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to reduce their rate in the upcoming meeting. The reasons are fairly straightforward: inflation is easing toward target levels, growth has cooled enough that the Fed doesn’t need to keep pressure on, borrowing costs have been weighing on consumers and businesses, and other global banks have already begun cutting. A rate cut now isn’t about stimulating the economy; it’s about keeping us from slowing down too much.

If the Fed does cut rates, we could see some notable movement. Mortgage rates may tick down a bit more – not directly tied to the Fed rate, but typically influenced by the broader expectations it creates. More buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines may step forward, and sellers who have been holding tight to their 2–3% mortgages might finally consider a move. With inventory already down 25% and demand still present, even a slight increase in activity could heat the market quickly.

So, here’s the reality as we head into 2026: inventory continues to shrink, sales are down because supply is down, buyers are still present and engaged, interest rates are better than a year ago, and a Fed cut could push more activity into early 2026. This is a market where strategy matters – being prepared and moving decisively when the right opportunity appears is key. If you’d like to talk through what this means for your plans, whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply exploring options, I’m always here to help. Wishing you a wonderful holiday season and a strong start to the new yearrn – tight inventory, steady demand, and numbers that continue to show how limited supply is shaping activity. From October to November, our available inventory dropped by another 25%. We normally expect some seasonal slowing this time of year, but this is more than the typical holiday dip. We were already operating with low inventory, and removing a quarter of the available homes in just 30 days only adds more pressure to an already thin market.

Not surprisingly, sales followed the same direction. Closed sales fell 23% over the same period, but not because buyers aren’t interested. The demand is there; we’re just short on homes to sell. When the right property hits at the right price, it still draws attention, and in many cases, competition. Sellers continue to benefit from only 1.8 months of inventory, which supports pricing, but makes it tough for buyers who are waiting for something to fit their needs.

There is one encouraging piece of news – interest rates today are lower than they were at this time last year. That’s helping maintain buyer activity, even as we move deeper into the slower holiday season. People are still watching the market, still searching, and many are ready to move when the right opportunity appears. Demand hasn’t disappeared; it’s simply patient.

Economically, we’re in a middle ground. Inflation continues to cool, growth has slowed but remains steady, layoffs are happening in pockets, the stock market moves, but trends upward overall, and consumers are still spending—just with more caution. It’s not a boom, and it’s not a recession. We’re treading water, and in many ways, the housing market is doing the same.

A key factor right now is inflation. It has been moving consistently in the right direction, and because of that, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to reduce their rate in the upcoming meeting. The reasons are fairly straightforward: inflation is easing toward target levels, growth has cooled enough that the Fed doesn’t need to keep pressure on, borrowing costs have been weighing on consumers and businesses, and other global banks have already begun cutting. A rate cut now isn’t about stimulating the economy; it’s about keeping us from slowing down too much.

If the Fed does cut rates, we could see some notable movement. Mortgage rates may tick down a bit more – not directly tied to the Fed rate, but typically influenced by the broader expectations it creates. More buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines may step forward, and sellers who have been holding tight to their 2–3% mortgages might finally consider a move. With inventory already down 25% and demand still present, even a slight increase in activity could heat the market quickly.

So, here’s the reality as we head into 2026: inventory continues to shrink, sales are down because supply is down, buyers are still present and engaged, interest rates are better than a year ago, and a Fed cut could push more activity into early 2026. This is a market where strategy matters – being prepared and moving decisively when the right opportunity appears is key. If you’d like to talk through what this means for your plans, whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply exploring options, I’m always here to help. Wishing you a wonderful holiday season and a strong start to the new year

November 2025 Market Update

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I’ve heard people say the market is “stuck in the mud.” Personally, I think we’re just treading water. Sales are stagnant, inventory continues to decline, yet rates are sitting near three-year lows. There’s still considerable uncertainty in the economy and job market. With the government shutdown, layoffs at UPS, AWS, GM, and even Target, and that uncertainty is keeping people on the sidelines.

As I’ve mentioned before, our “seasonal slowdown” started earlier than usual this year, back in September. Normally, we don’t see it until October or November. The hope now is that the Fed’s recent rate cut gives things a little spark — perhaps boosting the stock market, improving consumer confidence, and getting people moving again. What’s interesting is that consumer confidence didn’t go down this month, which honestly surprised me. It stayed level, which, given everything happening, is a small win.

As we move into the holiday season and the traditional slowdown, my concern is that we don’t end up with a double dip — lower sales and even lower inventory. If that does happen, though, there will still be opportunities. Every market shift creates them. If you’d like to discuss what that might look like for your situation, please give me a call; I’m happy to walk you through different strategies.

Now, let’s talk about something that’s been bugging me a bit lately: I keep hearing people say we’re in a buyer’s market. We are not in a buyer’s market. Not even close. Just because we’re seeing some contingencies in contracts doesn’t make it a buyer’s market — it makes it a balanced market. Not every deal even has contingencies, and 47% of sales are at or above list price.  When the numbers show homes are selling for an average of 99.5% of the original list price and houses are on the market for just 27 days on average, it’s hard to argue that buyers are in control.  

Here’s the reality — about 77% of REALTORS have been licensed for less than 15 years, and 51% of all agents have been in the business less than 5 years. Therefore, they have never seen a true buyer’s market or experienced what one is. A real buyer’s market means an excess of inventory, price drops, and homes sitting on the market for months. That’s not what we’re seeing today, by a wide margin, as previously mentioned.

More than ever, who you work with matters. Experience counts. Knowledge counts. Understanding how to navigate through uncertainty counts. If you’d like to discuss your next move, whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, let’s connect.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

October 2025 Market Update

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What’s Really Happening with Interest Rates and Housing

The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates by a quarter of a point. While this was big news in the financial world, it’s important to understand what it really means for the housing market. A common misconception is that when the Fed reduces rates, mortgage rates will automatically come down. In reality, that isn’t always the case.

Here’s why: mortgage lenders usually anticipate the Fed’s moves and adjust their rates ahead of time. That’s exactly what happened this time. Mortgage rates had already dipped before the Fed made its announcement. Then, when inflation numbers came in higher than expected, it rattled the economy, and mortgage rates actually rose again. In recent weeks, we’ve seen rates fluctuate – rising, falling, and then rising again – making it feel like a rollercoaster ride for anyone watching closely.

This uncertainty has created a very dynamic housing market. On the one hand, some homes are still receiving multiple offers, but these situations are happening less frequently. On the other hand, more homes are sitting on the market longer, and we’re even seeing buyers successfully negotiate contingencies into their contracts again – something that wasn’t very common during the ultra-competitive years of 2020–2022.

The pace of sales is another concern. August sales were the lowest we’ve seen in three decades. If the slowdown continues, total home sales for the year could fall back to levels not seen since the 1990s. That’s a significant shift and something we’ll be watching closely.

If you’re considering selling, it’s essential to understand what today’s buyers expect. Homes need to be priced competitively, as overpricing will only cause them to sit on the market. Presentation is equally important – buyers want to see properties that are fresh, clean, and move-in ready. Staging can also make a big difference by highlighting a home’s best features and creating a strong first impression. Finally, accessibility matters; the easier it is for buyers to view your home, the better your chances of receiving an offer.

For buyers, the current market offers some unique opportunities. With homes staying on the market longer, there’s more room to negotiate terms, include contingencies, and take a little extra time to make thoughtful decisions, something we haven’t seen much of in the fast-paced markets of the past few years.

Adding to the uncertainty, the federal government shutdown began on October 1st. Right now, no one knows how long it will last. A short shutdown may not have a significant impact, but if it drags on, it could slow down certain aspects of the real estate process – such as mortgage underwriting, flood insurance, and even some verifications tied to government agencies. This could create delays for both buyers and sellers.

The real estate market is adjusting, and while we haven’t quite found our new “normal,” one thing remains true: preparation and strategy matter. Whether you’re buying or selling, the best advantage you can have is knowledge and guidance.

If you’re considering making a move, let’s talk. I’d be happy to walk you through what’s happening right now, explain how it impacts your situation, and outline the steps you can take to achieve your goals. Give me a call, I’m here to help you navigate this market with confidence.

September 2025 Market Update

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From Frenzy to Balance: What Today’s Market Means for You

As summer comes to a close, we’re beginning to see the real estate market shift out of the unpredictable patterns we’ve experienced these past few months. The market in Northern Virginia has felt like a roller coaster ride – sales climbing one week, dipping the next, and interest rates moving up and down just as quickly. That kind of volatility has left many buyers and sellers wondering what’s really going on.

The encouraging news is that we’re starting to move toward a more stable and balanced market. For a long time, especially during the pandemic, it was a strong seller’s market. Homes were selling in a matter of days, often with multiple offers well over asking price, and buyers had little room to negotiate. That environment made it challenging for buyers and created very high expectations for sellers.

Now, things are changing. While certain homes in sought-after neighborhoods may still attract multiple offers, most properties are staying on the market a little longer. This means buyers have more breathing room—they can take time to view homes, compare options, and even negotiate important protections (called contingencies) into their contracts. For sellers, it’s important to adjust expectations: instead of expecting instant offers, the new “normal” may be a few weeks on the market before the right buyer comes along.

This shift is part of a natural cycle. Real estate always ebbs and flows, and right now we’re moving away from the frantic pace of the past several years into something more balanced. That’s not bad news, it’s healthy. A balanced market gives both buyers and sellers a fair shot.

Looking ahead, interest rates remain a key factor. The Federal Reserve is expected to make another adjustment in September. Many are hopeful this could ease mortgage rates, making buying more affordable. However, it’s worth remembering that the last time the Fed moved rates in November, mortgage rates actually increased. In other words, there’s still uncertainty. We’re in a transition period, and patience is essential until the market settles into a new rhythm.

If you’re a buyer, now may be an opportunity. With more homes staying on the market and less competition, you may be able to negotiate better terms than in years past. If you’re a seller, pricing your home correctly and presenting it well is more important than ever—homes that are priced right and show well are still selling quickly. No matter where you are in your real estate journey – buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of the headlines, I’m here to walk you through it and help you make the best decisions for your situation here in Northern Virginia.

August 2025 Market Update

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Is the Northern Virginia real estate market frozen? The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to move through one of the most peculiar periods in recent memory – one defined by contradiction, hesitation, and uncertainty. Why, you may ask? There are several factors at play: the economy, federal government layoffs impacting the entire region, higher-than-expected interest rates for an extended period, and buyer apathy. While summer typically brings more energy to the housing market, in recent years, this year feels… stuck.

Inventory remains flat. The number of homes coming to the market isn’t increasing in any meaningful way, and houses are staying on the market longer. We’re hovering at very low inventory levels, and yet homes aren’t selling as quickly as you might expect with a limited supply. Why? Because sales volume is stagnant, leaving both buyers and sellers confused about their next steps.

Uncertainty appears to be the new normal. Let’s break down the reasons discussed above further.

A major driver of this slowdown is the current economic climate. Consumers are wary. Whether it’s concerns about inflation, job market fluctuations, or the broader macroeconomic outlook, many potential buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for some clarity. Unfortunately, the only thing that seems consistent lately is unpredictability.

Interest rates are the elephant in the room. Higher-than-expected interest rates continue to weigh heavily on both buyers and sellers. For buyers, mortgage payments are significantly more expensive than they were just 18 months ago. For sellers, the idea of trading in a 3% mortgage for something north of 7% is a hard pill to swallow. As a result, homeowners are opting to “wait it out,” which is further contributing to the inventory standstill.

All this being said, we are experiencing a tale of two markets, which is perhaps the most baffling aspect of this market: its inconsistency. Why? On the one hand, we’re seeing well-located, properly priced, turnkey homes receive multiple offers—sometimes six or seven—within days of hitting the market. These homes continue to generate excitement and competition. On the other hand, we’re seeing some listings sit for weeks, sometimes going days without a single showing, or they are receiving lowball offers that don’t reflect the home’s value.

What’s the difference? Often, it’s the small things: pricing strategy, presentation, marketing, or the home’s location. Buyers today are more discerning, cautious, and highly sensitive to perceived value. They are willing to pay a premium, but only when they see clear justification for doing so.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers? If you’re a buyer, be aware that opportunities still exist, but patience is crucial. Be prepared to act quickly on the right home, but also understand that not every property will be a bidding war. In some cases, you may be able to negotiate. 

If you’re a seller, strategy is everything right now. This is not the market to “test the waters” with aspirational pricing. Homes that are priced correctly and show well will sell – often quickly. Those that miss the mark risk being ignored entirely.

Looking ahead, until there’s more certainty around interest rates or economic stability, we expect the market to remain uneven and choppy. Real estate is hyper-local, and even within Northern Virginia, we’re seeing pockets of high demand alongside areas that are lagging behind.

Now more than ever, experience and strategy matter. If you’re considering buying or selling, let’s discuss how to navigate this unpredictable market with confidence and clarity.

June 2025 Market Update

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Will the real estate market hit the summertime blues…or bounce back?

As we roll into the summer season, many homeowners and buyers alike are asking the same question: Will the real estate market slow down as it usually does this time of year… or are we gearing up for a late-season rebound?

Right now, we’re seeing a shift — one that’s been building gradually but feels like it came on fast. Sales activity is slowing down, interest rates are continuing to rise, and mortgage applications have dipped over the past few weeks. Buyers are taking a more cautious, wait-and-see approach, watching not only where interest rates are headed but also where home prices might land.

We are firmly in an interest rate–driven market. When rates go up, buyer demand tends to go down, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now. Homes that may have sold in a matter of days earlier this year are now taking a little longer. In some cases, sellers are adjusting prices or offering incentives to attract serious buyers. There’s no panic — just a noticeable softening.This kind of quick market shift isn’t new. We’ve seen it before, especially since the pandemic. One moment, things are quiet. Next, homes are flying off the market. The real estate market has become increasingly sensitive to economic news, interest rate changes, and shifts in consumer confidence than ever before.

Historically, the summer months — especially July and August — bring a seasonal slowdown. People are traveling, kids are out of school, and real estate often takes a backseat to summer fun. But come September, activity usually picks up again. Whether that holds true this year will largely depend on interest rates.

If rates stabilize or drop, we could see more buyers re-enter the market. If they continue to rise, the current pause may last a little longer. Either way, we expect things to stay dynamic — and keeping a close eye on these trends will be important for both buyers and sellers.

Bottom line? Real estate is always moving, even when it slows. If you’re considering making a move this summer or fall, give me a call, let’s talk strategy. The more you understand the market, the better positioned you’ll be to make smart decisions. Happy Summer!

May 2025 Market Update

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Uncertainty Creates Opportunity

As we head into the heart of the spring market, one thing is clear — uncertainty is everywhere. With talks of tariffs being paused and reevaluated, and interest rates fluctuating more than usual, many buyers and sellers are left wondering what’s next. At the time of writing, mortgage rates are in the high 6% range. While that’s still lower than where we started the year and below where we were this time last year, it’s enough volatility to make some buyers hesitate. The market feels like it’s holding its breath, waiting to see where things land — but waiting too long can mean missing out.

Here’s the reality: waiting for prices to drop may not be the best strategy. Despite the shifting economy, home prices continue to rise in many areas due to low inventory and strong demand. Buyers who wait may find themselves paying more down the line, not less. Historically, trying to “time the market” rarely works as well as having a sound plan and being prepared to act when the right home appears.

For sellers, well-prepared homes are still commanding attention. When our clients follow expert guidance—staging their homes, making necessary improvements, and using professional photography and marketing — we’re seeing strong results. In fact, many of these listings are receiving multiple showings and competitive offers shortly after hitting the market. Presentation, pricing, and positioning remain the winning formula in today’s market.

Whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, it’s never been more important to have a trusted real estate advisor by your side. The right strategy, informed by current market data and local expertise, can make all the difference. We’re here to guide you through the uncertainty and help you make the most informed decisions possible.

Have questions or ready to make a move? We’re here to help. Wishing you and your family a safe and happy Memorial Day! And remember — opportunity often hides in uncertain times.

April 2025 Market Update

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Spring Has Sprung in the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

The spring market is officially in full bloom — and things are heating up! We’re seeing more homes hit the market, which is a welcome change because buyer demand remains incredibly strong in our area. That means more people are actively looking to buy, and they’re jumping at the right homes when they hit the market.

Compared to this time last year, more homes are selling — and they’re selling faster. Although inventory is increasing, we still have fewer homes available than many buyers would like. In real estate terms, we refer to this as a low “month’s supply” of inventory, which simply means there aren’t quite enough homes to go around. When we look at the past five years, this year’s numbers are tracking closely with average sales, which is a good sign of market health and stability.

It’s worth noting that, despite having two huge years in 2021 and 2022, the market continues to show strength today. Sellers are still seeing solid returns, and buyers, especially in hot areas, are having to move quickly and often compete to win the home they want.

In fact, one recent property we made an offer on sold for nearly $300,000 over its list price! That shows just how competitive it can be in certain neighborhoods. Arlington, in particular, remains a strong market with high sales prices, significant buyer interest, and an increasing number of showings being scheduled on a weekly basis.

So, what does this all mean? While some might expect the market to bounce around like a March Madness basketball, what we’re seeing is a steady climb — more like the consistent goal-scoring power of Alex Ovechkin (if you know, you know).

If you’re thinking about buying or selling or just want to know what’s happening in your neighborhood, I’m here to help. Feel free to reach out; I’d love to chat.

Wishing you a joyful and peaceful Easter!

March 2025 Market Update

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The Northern Virginia Real Estate Market: Strong and Steady This Spring

There’s been a lot of chatter about the Northern Virginia real estate market, but much of it is more noise than reality. Despite what you may hear, our market remains strong, and opportunities are plentiful for both buyers and sellers.

Low Inventory & Seasonal Trends
We continue to experience very low inventory, meaning there are fewer homes available for sale than usual. While we are seeing a slight increase in inventory, this is a normal seasonal trend. Every year, as we move past Valentine’s Day, more homes traditionally come on the market. It’s not a sign of trouble—it’s simply the natural rhythm of real estate.

The slight uptick in inventory is expected and typical for this time of year. Sellers often take advantage of the spring season to list their homes, leading to more choices for buyers. However, demand remains strong, keeping the market competitive. Properly priced and well-presented homes continue to attract attention and offers, often within days of hitting the market.

There’s been speculation that potential government layoffs might negatively impact the housing market. However, any real impact would likely be delayed. Typically, when people lose their jobs, they focus on finding new employment rather than making immediate changes to their housing situation. Most homeowners understand the challenges of selling their home without a clear plan, as renting or buying a new home without stable employment is not an easy feat. As a result, many will choose to stay put, keeping the housing supply tight.

We’re looking forward to a strong spring market. Open houses are bustling with activity, and we continue to see homes selling quickly when they are priced right and in good condition. The market remains price-sensitive, and while well-positioned homes are snapped up, those priced a bit too high may sit longer and require price adjustments. The strategy of pushing prices higher is not as effective in today’s environment.

Mortgage rates have been a bright spot, trending down for five consecutive weeks. This easing of rates could bring more buyers into the market, boosting demand even further. It’s a promising sign that the market is stabilizing and that now could be a great time to make a move.

Navigating the real estate market can be complex, but you don’t have to do it alone. If you have any questions about the market or are curious about your home’s current value, I’m here to help. Wishing you all the luck of the Irish and a fantastic spring season!

January 2025 Market Update | Another Year in the Books – Reflecting on 2024 and Looking Ahead to 2025

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Another year has come and gone, and what a year it was! So much happened—and some things didn’t happen as predicted—that it was a whirlwind for the real estate industry. The most significant changes came with updates to our industry practices, particularly regarding commissions.

One major shift was that commissions are no longer allowed to be published in MLS systems or websites connected to them. Additionally, buyers and agents are now required to sign an Exclusive Right to Represent Buyer Agreement before viewing homes. While this has been the law in Virginia since 2012, it’s now more crucial than ever to determine how an agent’s commission will be paid if it isn’t negotiated within the contract. On the bright side, these changes have brought greater transparency to how real estate professionals are compensated.

What Didn’t Change in 2024?

Despite widespread predictions, interest rates did not fall as expected. Many anticipated rates would dip into the mid-5% range, but they stayed elevated throughout the year, even reaching the mid-7% range. This kept many homeowners from selling, resulting in continued low inventory instead of the expected rise in homes for sale.

As a result, sales remained flat compared to 2023 and may even show a slight decrease when final numbers come in. Similarly, while some forecasted a drop—or even a “crash”—in home prices, the opposite occurred. Prices increased, which added to the wealth of homeowners. However, rising prices and rates made affordability a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.

Another area where expectations fell short was regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. While many predicted six cuts in 2024, there were only three. I felt six was ambitious, so I predicted three, which turned out to be correct.

What’s Ahead in 2025?

Here are my predictions for the coming year:

  • Mortgage rates will remain volatile but slightly lower by year-end, likely in the high 5% to low 6% range.
  • Inventory levels will remain low but improve slightly as more baby boomers age in place and homeowners stay “rate locked” in their current mortgages.
  • Home prices will continue to rise due to low inventory and strong demand.
  • Affordability will remain a significant challenge, especially for first-time buyers.
  • The Fed will cut rates three times, fewer than predicted earlier.
  • Fewer agents will remain in the business due to declining transactions and commission compression.
  • Homeowner’s insurance rates will rise due to the impact of natural disasters, making insurance harder to secure in some areas.
  • Unemployment will increase slightly but remain below 5%, leading to a softer labor market.
  • Inflation should stay manageable, in the range of 2.5–3%, supported by Fed actions and economic conditions.
  • Now more than ever, having a Realtor® represent you is critical to navigating the evolving real estate landscape.

As we step into 2025, it’s clear that the real estate market will continue to present its challenges, but with the right guidance, opportunities abound. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply understand how these changes affect you, I’m here to help. Together, we can navigate this ever-changing market with confidence.

Here’s to a prosperous and fulfilling 2025 — Happy New Year!