Market Trends

Are you the 20%?

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Have fun and make a difference! That was the premise of the speech I heard today from Doug Smith, compliments of Leslie Wish, McLean Mortgage Group.  If you’re not having fun at your job, then why are you doing it?  That was his lead into discussing the Paredo Principle and how we, as Realtors, fit into the rule.

The Paredo Principle is the rule of 80/20.  Twenty percent of the Realtors are doing 80% of the work. The 20% are defined as professionally persistent and instinctively insistent. We’ve heard it all before, but asked us what was the difference between those that are in the 20%? What are the 20% of Realtors doing that the 80% Realtors aren’t doing? And once you figure out what those tasks are, how can you do more of them to make your days more productive?

Doug has put those differences into his 5 C’s for Success and differentiation from the rest of the pack. These are the things that the 80% lack and the 20% excel at…

1. Confidence: How do you answer the question “how’s the market?” What do you do when you walk into a room of people you don’t know? Confidence is an ability that many of us lack, simply because we are afraid of making mistakes and looking bad. Instead of saying that the market is great and that the numbers are this and that, say “It’s remarkable, I’ve never seen anything like it!”

2. Contacts: The opposite of contact is reluctance. Reluctance can be to pick up the phone and make that call. The more contacts you have in your sphere, the more contracts you will write. So who’s in your contact zone? Business partners, family, friends, transaction partners such as home inspectors, etc. Don’t be afraid to tell your friends and family that they have a friend in real estate. Many agents think they shouldn’t reach out to their friends in case the transaction goes bad and results in losing that friendship. That all goes back to a lack of confidence.

3. Control: Control of your business, your time, your career, your clients. Agents who have a plan, a written plan, have more control over their business. Those that take it a step further by having a plan each day, a to-do list; have even more control over their business.  Agents who control or “drive” the conversation when speaking with clients, maintain more control of the transaction and get the job done! Doug spoke about Sales Speak. Here’s an example of Sales Speak presented by those in the 80% and those in the 20%…

80%: Did you think you might want to see a few houses this weekend?

20%: Let’s go see 3 or 4 houses this weekend. What day is better for you, Saturday or Sunday?

Or

80%: So, you like the house? Ok, great, do you think that maybe you might want to make an offer on it?

20%: What do you think? You like it, great. Let’s make an offer.

The difference in the two shows that the 20% agent is steering the client to move forward with the transaction because that’s what they hired the agent for. They didn’t hire the agent to make their own decisions. They hired him/her to help them make the best decision based upon the needs/requirements they expressed to the agent for their new home. Think about that next time you are on the phone with a client. You might just find out that all this time you’ve been using speech associated with the 80% and it might be time for a change.

4. Consistency: Extraordinary people are not truly extraordinary; they just do it with ridiculous consistency! Those who are consistent see more results than those that do things from time to time. Doug mentioned 3 things you can do daily to generate 13-15 sales per year and add 1,440 contacts to your database per year and those are (1) handing out 1 business card a day, (2) use some form of correspondence 2 times per day either through email or snail mail, and (3) make 3 calls per day to anyone…past clients, lender, agent, friend, etc. The more you do things consistently, the more it becomes a habit and you will find yourself doing them instinctively while receiving more business.

5. Courage: Courage hides behind the things we fear the most. Courage is acting in the presence of fear.  In cases such as these, we need to change our focus, take responsibility for ourselves and expect more of ourselves. We can do it and should remind ourselves everyday either through affirmations or changing your focus and mindset. It takes courage to do a lot of things, but once you start to do those things the easier they will become.

Doug ended the session with a great quote by Mary Kay-Ash, “Most people truly have no idea what they are capable of. It’s so much more than we think.” This rings true with the 20%. They have the 5 C’s, they have more sales, they know more people, they make more phone calls, and they work more hours than those in the 80%. Implementing the 5 C’s in your life will help you move (if you’re there) in to the 20%. Based upon the number of agents in the United States (965,000) and the projected number of transactions that will take place this year (4,400,000), agents in the 20% will average 18-19 sales this year. Wouldn’t you like to be in that top 20% of all Realtors in the United States? Stick to the 5 C’s and best of luck!  Now go sell something!

So this is what Deja Vu feels like!

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The real estate market reminds me of the Bill Murray movie Ground Hog’s Day because I continue to say very similar things each month.  We have very low inventory of houses, fewer than 4,800 in all of Northern Virginia.  It has been this low for over 5 weeks and we haven’t seen inventory levels this consistently low since 2005.  Interest rates remain at historic lows and it appears as if they are going to stay this low through 2014 unless something unforeseen happens in the economy.  Lastly, we continue to see a drastic decrease in distressed property inventory in Northern Virginia and the onslaught of foreclosures will not happen locally.  We have just 592 short sales and 290 foreclosures on the market and Notice of Trustee sales are only averaging 2 pages per day.  Short sales and Notice of Trustee sales lead to foreclosures and if we don’t have them, we won’t see them.

The one thing that we typically don’t see this time of year is the number of attendees at open houses we are currently seeing.  It is more typical than not to hear our agents having 20-40 people attend an open house and receiving multiple contracts as a result.  This type of activity is more likely to happen in the spring but warm weather and consumer confidence building has helped spur this activity.  As I have said in the past, if sellers properly price their properties, have it in prime condition and have it staged, they are receiving multiple offers because buyers are buying.

What are we reading in the news about the rest of the country and the market that will indirectly affect us?  While delinquencies and defaults slowly improve in the housing economy as a whole, FHA’s portfolio has not had the same good fortune.  The woes of FHA are creating increased pressure on the agency to reduce risk and increase costs to its borrowers, most of whom are first time buyers.  In December, about one of every 10 FHA mortgages or 9.73 percent, were seriously delinquent, or more than 90 days past due.  Compare that to all mortgages, whose seriously delinquent rate fell to 7.3% in December from 7.8 a year earlier.  For nine straight months, FHA delinquencies have risen while mortgages in general have improved.   We will keep an eye on this for you and let you know when the costs increase.  On a positive note for those going through short sales and loan modifications, President Obama Proposes Extending Tax Waiver on Mortgage Debt Forgiveness that is due to expire at the end of this year.  The Act ensures that homeowners who received principal reductions or other forms of debt forgiveness on their primary residence do not have to pay taxes on the amount forgiven.  In addition to this, some banks are paying people to aid in their short sales.  JP Morgan Chase went national with short-sale incentive offers last year, paying up to $35,000 in some cases.  Bank of America is testing incentives from $5,000 to $25,000 in Florida to see if they should be expanding to more states.  Wells Fargo’s incentive offers range of less than $3,000 to $20,000.  Short sales, even with incentive payments to borrowers, can save lenders money compared with the expenses involved in completing foreclosures.  Let us know if you need our assistance with either of these scenarios.

If you have questions about your personal situation, please feel free to call us.  We are here to help you with all of your real estate needs.

Is the spring market coming?

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In Northern Virginia our inventory levels of active resale homes for sale continues to decline.  We are down to just over 4,600 homes on the market and we have a 1.8 month supply of homes.  Houses that went under contract the last 7 days hit a 6 month high this past week.  In a nutshell, houses are selling.  Why is this happening?   Interest rates hit another record low, we are creating jobs here, rental rates are increasing and our population is growing putting more demand on housing.

Last week I was asked when will we see the spring market or in other words, when will more houses be coming on the market?  Some people say when the banks start releasing foreclosures, some say mid-March, and some say when their price rise.  Let’s analyze each of these responses.

So far we have not seen the foreclosures hit the market and as a matter of record, the inventory has actually decreased to a 6 month low with only 311 currently for sale.  In addition, “Notice of Trustee sales” published have actually remained very low as well averaging only 3 pages per day versus substantially higher numbers in 2008-2010. Lastly, I started tracking short sale inventory just over 2 years ago and we are at an all-time low in this area as well – only 651 are for sale in Northern Virginia.

As far as the inventory levels increasing in mid-March, only time will tell but several agents have indicated they have houses in the process of being prepared to go on the market around this timeframe.  If they are not only preparing them for sale but are going to price them accordingly, they will sell.  Two properties we listed on Friday received multiple offers because they were price properly and in the right condition.  And now for the statement, “when my price increases, I will sell” is a tougher one to answer for many people.  Rise compared to what?  When they were purchased?  Compared to 2004-2007 prices?  Compared with the last sale in their neighborhood?  Until these questions can be answered, we can’t help them.

We continue to have one of the best real estate markets in the country and it will be this way for the foreseeable future.  Please feel free to contact us to learn more about how this market affects you and your situation.

A great time to buy…now?

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It is definitely an interesting time in real estate in Northern Virginia.  We have extremely low inventory levels that remain below normal for this time of year.  As an example in January of 2008, we averaged 15,500 active listings, in 2009 it was 10,200, in the year of Snowmagedon in 2010 it was 4,800 because people took their houses off the market and agents couldn’t get out and about to list them, in 2011 it was 5,800 and now we are at 4,700.  What is interesting to note is the month’s supply of houses in the same time frame – 2008 it was 10.8, 2009 4.0 and since then it has been 2.3 in 2010, 2.8 in 2011 and this year 2.2.  What this clearly indicates is there are buyers out in the marketplace looking for homes in the winter months – not just the spring months now.  Interest rates remain very low – below 4% for 30 year fixed rates – jobs are being created here so people are moving into the area and rental rates are rising throughout Northern Virginia. 

If your family circumstances, job status, or you just have the desire to sell your house and move up to a bigger home, now is a great time to do so.  Houses that are priced right, in the right condition and staged properly are attracting offers.  One of the biggest parts of this equation is the price – price sells today.  Sellers cannot price a little high for negotiations as we have seen that they languish on the market in this situation.  Price it competitively and it will sell.

Buyers have a great opportunity today.  The housing affordability index is at an all-time high  and in many cases house payments are less than rental payments even before considering the tax benefits of home ownership.  For buyers looking for the long term benefits of home ownership, there historically has not been a better time.  Prices are remaining stable, interest rates are low, and the housing industry is on the rebound meaning we have already hit the bottom and we are on the upswing if you were trying to time the market.

Whatever your situation is, we can help.  Please feel free to contact us to discuss your personal needs in more detail and see if now is the right time for you to make a move.

What’s 2012 looking like?

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As we enter 2012, there is much speculation about real estate yet again.  Will there be more foreclosures?  Will housing values continue to drop?  How long will interest rates stay low?  When will lending guidelines reverse their trend of more restrictive policies?  Should I buy or wait?  Will short sale guidelines become more uniform? What will it take to improve the housing market?  Well, as I have said in the past, my crystal ball is broken but I can look at trends, read reports and provide some guidance.  Let’s take a look at what we have seen recently.

Will there be more foreclosures?  As the inventory of short sales decrease and the notice of trustee sales in the papers remain low, we will not see a tremendous amount of foreclosures hit the Northern Virginia market.  When we see an increase they won’t have a significant impact like they had on our market in 2008-2010.  The inventory will come when banks begin to evict people who have been living in houses mortgage payment and rent free for several months.  Additionally we will see some foreclosures come on the as people lose their jobs.  Again, the impact will not be severe in my opinion and will be absorbed as inventory levels are at 2 year lows in Northern Virginia.

As inventory remains low, prices will remain stable and in some areas they will increase.  If owners invest in their homes by upgrading kitchens, bathrooms, and updating carpets, paint etc. they will see the return when they sell.  Homes in the right condition, staged and priced properly see multiple contracts and often get bid up above list price.

Interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The Federal Reserve has stated they will keep their rates in the same range through mid-2013 and as such, mortgage rates should remain low.  There are of course some outside factors that could change this such as the European debt crisis, and energy costs rising but overall we will be in the 3.75-4.5% range for mortgage rates.

It doesn’t seem that lending guidelines will restrict any time in the near future.  Underwriters continue to ask for last minute items, credit is being checked for a second time just before settlement, requests for obscure items are being asked for and when you think you’ve heard it all, you hear something new.  On the bright side, mortgage insurance companies are becoming more flexible in their requirements which is helping in some instances.  Unless it is mandated by the government through the GSEs, I don’t see guidelines relaxing for some time.

If someone has found a home that meets their requirements as far as location, size, price and affordability then yes, now is the time to buy!  Especially if it is for a long term hold, you need to buy now.  In a recent survey, 78% of Americans believe housing is a great investment.  As previously mentioned, rates are excellent and you need to take advantage of them as well.

We are dealing with fewer short sales in Northern Virginia today but they do seem to be closing at a higher rate than before which is great for both buyers and sellers.  We anticipate this trend to continue.

So what will it take bring the market back? In a two words, I say, consumer confidence.  How does consumer confidence improve?  Here are a  few ideas – job creation, lower energy costs, and more positive press on the economy.  Let’s see how this goes with the election coming up later in the year.

With a little more insight into the market, go help people make the right decisions when buying or selling houses.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

 

Real estate normal?

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What is the new normal in real estate:

Today I am going to share with you a few ideas that are going to help you get on to a successful year in 2012 – you will also hear a few ideas from other agents that they have planned to make this their best year ever as well. The important thing to remember is to only adapt 6 of the strategies. If you try to do too many, you will be overwhelmed and not do any. I recommend starting with 6 things you are not doing today and incorporate them into your business. Once you have mastered 6 add another one in until mastered and then add another and so on. In addition, it is important to set strategies for accomplishing what you set out to do and review them regularly. You are in business for yourself but not by yourself so partner with someone in the room and hold each other accountable – meet before or after training, before or after a real estate exchange – make it easy for you but the big thing is to just do it.

When looking at the strategies you are going to put in place, you need to be clear and specific about what you want to accomplish and write them down. Know what roadblocks and obstacles you will need to overcome to achieve what you want to do and then how you will overcome them. What will you need to do to develop the skills and instill the discipline within yourself to make them happen. You will need deadlines, detailed plans of action – 5 or so for each action item, and have them where you can review them regularly. Lastly, think about and visualize your end result and what it will be like when you have accomplished what you have set out to do.

• Be positive – have the right attitude and eliminate complaining from your life • I like the “theme” of the day – will you do it?

• You are going to have to work more focused and be more intentional

• You are going to have to sell yourself passively and aggressively – explain

• Training is going to be paramount – especially in financing – increase your skills by attending seminars, getting a designation, going to REIX, office trainings, you need to be good at what you do to build referrals

• Video is going to be important – Casey Anthony is doing video diaries – video houses, your listings, neighborhoods, how’s the market, etc.

• Networking is going to be critical – find a group, start a group, join a chamber, Rotary club, coach kids in sports, join a PTA, get involved in a charity, become involved in something

• Learning and interpreting market trends – you have to know your numbers such as inventory levels and types of inventory, prices, DOM, people love to hear this

• Stay on top of values by previewing – especially new homes as they will continue to have an impact on the market – this is a great way to start with video. Video your house of the week, your bargain of the week, or whatever you want to call it.

• Read blogs for more information, see what others are saying about the market. You have to know what your competition is up to and what better way to learn than to read about their thoughts

• Start a blog and of course add video. Write about neighborhoods, your listings, interactions with agents, clients, trends, your services, how’s the market?

• Set your personal business standard and stick to it. Write the personal notes, make the phone calls, stop by and visit your past clients or meet new ones and track your daily conversations.

• Hold open houses on the right houses

• Track your business, determine what gives you the best results and do more of it.

My Top 10 Predictions for 2012

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Credit unions in real estate – if the merger between Pen Fed and Prudential Caruthers is successful – and only time will tell – more credit unions will look to enter the market.  If the merger muddles along as it is now, other credit unions will remain on the sidelines.  This one will be interesting to watch as NAR and RPAC spent so much time and money keeping banks out of the business.

The Presidential election – Nearly 1/3 of voters say how the candidates view housing will impact how they vote.  The foreclosure crisis and 11 million people with negative equity are what concern so many Americans.  Next to unemployment, the stance they take on housing will drive the election.  Therefore, agents will need to get busy listing and selling houses the first half of the year as I see people going back to the sidelines after July to see who wins and what policy they will put in place for housing.

Interest rates – if they go higher, they will crush the fragile housing market which the Federal Reserve will not allow.  Unlike last year’s prediction where I predicted rates to get to 6% and was wrong, this year I believe they will stay in the 4 – 5% range but closer to 4% than 5%.  This is what will keep some people in the home buying mode.

New home sales locally will continue to rise.  The shortage of resale properties available, the fact that 20% of our market is distressed and buyers are tired of the short sale process will continue to drive buyers to new homes.  Price will continue to also play a role in the new home market.  Builders will have to stay within reason and not price themselves out of the market.

Land values in our area will continue to rise.  Fueled by lack of inventory and new home sales, land values will continue to increase.  We are seeing new signs popping up on vacant land already.

Existing home Sales forecast will stay flat.  Unemployment, the election, strict lending guidelines and the fallout from foreclosures will keep people at bay from jumping into home purchases.

Lending guidelines will stay strict and may get even stricter.  As such, it will make our job as Realtors even more challenging.  Both buyers and sellers need to choose a professional and only work with local lenders – not internet lenders.

Foreclosures in NOVA versus rest of USA – we will continue to see low levels of foreclosures in NOVA for the first 6 months of the year, at least.  Notice of trustee sales are down in the papers, short sales make up less than 14% of our market and as such, foreclosures won’t be as prevalent.  The rest of the country needs to be leery as unemployment and dropping values continue to put pressure on home owners and foreclosures will follow as a result.

Investor market and rents – as the inventory of houses shrink throughout Northern Virginia, people remaining leery of the housing market, and lending guidelines continue to tighten – our rental market will continue to be strong and rents will increase.  The good ole supply and demand theory of economics.  This will in turn bring more investors into the market.

Now you have my Top Ten Predictions for the real estate market in Northern Virginia.  Let’s meet up again this time next year and see how I did!  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!