Sequestration: FHA Delays, Department of Agriculture, USDA Loan Processing and How It Will Affect The Real Estate Market in Northern Virginia

Sequestration is here and it is going to affect a lot of areas of our life – some people more so than others.  The initial $85 billion cuts will include furloughs for 2.1 million federal workers for five months.  They will be required to take 22 unpaid days beginning in April and will end in September.  This 20% reduction in pay to many people has the potential to put them behind in their mortgages resulting in an increase in default notices.  This in turn could result in more short sales and foreclosures thereby affecting prices and more importantly the housing recovery.  Additionally, if people are making less money, they do not have the ability to “move up” so we will continue to see a lack of inventory in housing.  Worse yet, in some cases if people with security clearances fall behind with other bills, they could lose those clearances and their jobs.Image

Speaking of housing, FHA has acknowledged they will see delays in endorsements/claims time frames which will impact settlement dates because of getting loans not being completed in time for closing.  FHA is responsible for approximately 25% of loans so this is a big deal and you should pay attention to your closing dates.  Along these same lines, cuts in the Department of Agriculture will mean there will be delays in the processing of USDA loans.  These loans typically take a minimum of 75 days – I would encourage you to look at a minimum of 90 days to be safe.

In addition, people who rely on Federal Housing Assistance are going to lose their benefits which would leave them homeless.  These people include veterans and the disabled.  One other area that is affected is foreclosure prevention aid to nearly 75,000 people – keep an eye on this development.  People who receive Housing Choice Vouchers will be cut.  These vouchers are used for renting apartments.  Approximately 125,000 will be affected here potentially leaving them homeless.

A majority of the cuts will come from defense spending.  It is estimated that nearly 207,000 Virginians will lose their jobs with 75% of those residing in Northern VirginiaCalifornia will also lose a total of over 200,000 jobs with Maryland not far behind with over 100,000 jobs lost.  In totality, it has been predicted 2.14 million people would become unemployed as a result of sequestration.  There will be unintended consequences resulting from these cuts which will total $1.2 trillion by 2021.  One area that comes to mind is travel by air.  Fewer air traffic controllers and fewer TSA employees will result in delays at the airports for sure.  Another area is Hurricane Sandy victims, their aid will be diminished as well.  Lastly, when the hardworking, lower middle class government workers get 20% of their income slashed, there will be less discretionary spending which could have broad sweeping consequences – let’s see what else will be impacted.

Potential Effects of Sequestration on Real Estate

There is a lot of optimism in the media about real estate.  It is refreshing after the last several years of negative press and all the pessimism surrounding real estate.  Here is some of the positive news about the market:

  • The number of people that are delinquent in their mortgage payments are down so as a result, short sales and foreclosures are less prevalent in the market.
  • Potential Effects of Sequestration in Real Estate scottymacsblog With less distressed inventory, prices are increasing giving many people equity in their homes.  Many people may not be aware of their position in relation to their home’s value
  • Fewer foreclosures results in less crime – fewer people are stealing appliances, HVAC units, cabinets, lighting, etc. from the foreclosed properties and there aren’t as many people squatting
  • Inventory is low as buyers are in the market purchasing properties
  • Sellers, in many cases are seeing multiple offers on their houses
  • Interest rates remain below 4%
  • Consumer confidence is up
  • New home sales are up
  • Builder confidence is up
  • The rental market is strong and will continue to increase which is good for investors
  • As the real estate market improves, so does the overall economy

It is great to see us getting out of the weeds but there is still a lot of work ahead of us.  Sequestration and the resulting budget cuts will impact thousands of people – how will this impact the housing recovery.  Lending guidelines continue to tighten and the cost of obtaining a mortgage is rising – will this prevent too many people from entering the housing market?  Appraisals are often times coming in low because of escalating house prices with multiple offers and low supply – will this prevent too many sales from happening?

As a professional Realtor, committed to our clients, we can help you with providing you with the right advice to help you navigate the real estate market.  Feel free to call us with any questions.

Scott MacDonald (703) 652-5777

Success as Appraisal Concerns Rise In Northern Virginia Real Estate

Uh – oh some appraisals are low!
As we enter the spring market I have growing concerns over appraisals here in Northern Virginia. As we come out of the “slower” winter months, appraisers have fewer homes to choose from to help catch them up with the market today. We are seeing 20-30 people regularly at open houses which is rare for this time of year. There are only 3,081 houses for sale in all of Northern Virginia – a true supply issue for the number of buyers in the marketplace. As a result, it is rare not to see multiple offers on houses listed today. This is not an artificial “run up” of housing prices and we are not stretching prices as we are still below the highs of the housing bubble in many areas. The law of supply and demand should dictate property values in my opinion.
Here are examples of the last few appraisals we have come across. Two single family homes in the same neighborhood in Fairfax both recently came in low – one was sold at $850,000 and appraised for $847,000 – really? The other one sold at $877,000 and appraised for $811,000. How can these numbers be so far off from each other and where is the real estateAppraisal Concerns scottymacsblog market headed today? One of our agents listed a town house in Countryside for $320,000. They received 3 contracts in the first weekend – an obvious issue of supply and demand. Well, it sold for $326,500 and appraised for $300,000. The appraiser used a short sale that had closed several months prior to this sale at $260,000 as a comparable. Short sales are less than 8% of the market plus if it closed several months prior to this sale, because of the short sale process, the contract was written several months prior to closing – how is this truly a reflection of the market today? We also had an offer come in on a town house in Centreville recently which sold for $450,000 and appraised at $435,000. The appraiser used a new town house in a community down the street that settled in July of 2012. Again, as it was new build, the contract was written a few, if not several months prior to the settlement – is this a true indication of market value today? What’s worse is there was a closing in the same neighborhood which was a higher value that settled in December that was not used to support the price of our town house. Lastly, we had a condo in Sterling that came in low by $8,000. The sales price was $175,000 and it appraised for $167,000. I think you can understand our issue.
What can be done? First, provide information to your sellers and buyers early. Set the expectation that the property may not appraise for the sales price and discuss the potential options with them so they understand what the next steps would be for them. Let them know that the appraisers may have difficulty finding suitable comparable sales – this is where you must be diligent and provide solid comparable sales to the appraiser. If you are dealing with an FHA appraisal and the sellers of comparable properties paid closing costs for their buyers, let them know the appraiser will take that amount off the top of the sales price which could bring down your value. As there are many multiple offer situations, some buyer’s agents are putting in high offers to get an approved contract knowing they won’t get the needed appraised amount – let your sellers know this is the case and the highest price is not always the best offer. If you are selling a new home, most builder contracts do not have appraisal contingencies in them for their protection, not the buyers. As prices of new homes are escalating this becomes a concern for buyers today. Remind them that an appraisal is a snap shot in time based upon historical data that is already behind our escalating market.
In addition to providing information to your sellers and buyers, provide extensive details to the appraiser. Plus, don’t just provide them with information, meet them and discuss what you and they are seeing in the market – build rapport by sharing your stories and listening to theirs. Share with them your comparable sales and why they should be considered. Explain the Home Pricing Wizard to them in detail and how it helped you determine the market value. Provide them with copies of the competing offers so they can see it is a desirable property. Share with them your feedback from Showing Suite that shows other agents that visited the property how they felt the property was priced at market value – or below. Bring market data from RBIntel that shows the market is increasing in value, as well as, articles that point to this fact. You must be diligent in your representation of our clients and do all you can to get the houses to appraise.
The good news is not all properties are appraising low, but there are enough that are, so this is why you need to pay attention and educate our clients on what is happening in the market. This separates you from other agents and makes you a professional. Get it? Got it? Good!
Now, go sell something!

Video

A Short Tale About Home Inventory In The Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

Scott MacDonald shares current information on the Northern Virginia housing market. Scott’s video blog offers the latest on shortsales, foreclosures, appraisals, rental market and housing inventory – and his hair! Thinking about buying or selling your home? Contact Scott directly (703) 652-5777 or scottmacdonald@remax.net Read more… scottymacsblog.com

Scott’s Real Estate Market Update for Northern Virginia

Scott MacDonald’s Market Minute Update offers a quick look into the current real estate market conditions for Northern Virginia, the here and now of what is going on in the Virginia side of the DC Metro housing market area. The real estate market is favoring Sellers as Buyers in need of homes have fewer to choose from; multiple offers have been recently noted on homes listed and priced at competitive market value. If you are looking to buy or sell, give Scott MacDonald a call 703-652-5777

Top 10 Real Estate Market Predictions for 2013 -Northern Virginia and DC Metro area

Prediction #10 There will be more real estate agents entering the business. As the housing market shifts for the better, some may see it as an easy way to make money. Applications for the sales person exam has more than doubled since last year. This is very important if you are looking to buy or sell a home or investment property; you need a seasoned agent, with the education, knowledge, and experience to help guide you in making the right decisions.

Prediction #9 Interest Rates. I believe mortgage interest rates will stay below 4% as the fed rates are expected to stay around 0.25%. The cost of ownership is drastically reduced when interest rates are down, as well as, making it a great time to refinance. Contact us and we’ll show you what the numbers truly are and how we can help you make the right decision when buying your next house.

Prediction #8 New Home Market. As inventory levels of resale existing homes have been down as much as 30% throughout 2012 in NOVA, we will see new home builders increase in activity and sales. You may want to consider looking at new home builder stocks, builders with strong fundamentals in areas where there is growth and opportunity, economic and jobs, and sustained growth.

Prediction #7 Existing Home Sales. The resale housing market inventory levels have been falling since 2006 and we have had extremely low inventory levels in Northern Virginia, this year in particular. When the market does come up it will most likely be distressed properties because of pent-up inventory.

Prediction #6 Short Sales & Distressed Properties. We will probably see fewer Short Sales on the market during the 1st/2nd Quarters of 2013 should the mortgage relief act run out. Home owners may simply allow homes to go into foreclosure if there seems no true benefit of the short sale process.

Prediction #5 Housing Prices. Housing prices will continue to increase based upon the inventory levels are at or near all-time lows; supply and demand. With lending guidelines and appraisal guidelines in place we will see moderate slow gains and stabilized growth in the housing market.

Prediction #4 Lender Appraisals. I believe we will continue to have appraisal problems in 2013, guidelines are strict, binding an appraiser to work harder. We have seen some ‘bad’ appraisals with com parables outside of neighborhoods, missing items such as bathrooms, bedrooms and even giving extraordinaire value for items. You need an agent that is aware and knows how to handle this process.

Prediction #3 Lending Guidelines. Look for lending guidelines to become more stringent as the Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) and Quality Mortgages (QM) along with the required documentation, double and triple checking credit scores and employment verification. These precautions are the result of the housing boom and are now in place as a prevention method, helping ensure a safer housing market and growth.

Prediction #2 Investment in Real Estate. Investors have been the big player in real estate for the last 3-4 years and will continue. The rental market is extremely tight and rental prices continue to climb. Home prices have been low, making excellent returns for the Investor and allowing one to pick up distressed properties, fix-up and rent or resell. The need of rental housing has also increase as previous owners of foreclosed/short sale homes recover financially.

Prediction #1 REMAX Gateway in 2013. As I look into my crystal ball for 2013 for REMAX Gateway I see we will continue to grow and serve our clients. Currently we have 4 office locations: Lorton, Brambleton, Gainesville, and Chantilly; in 2013 we will be opening our 5th location in Arlington County, Virginia. As our agent count increases, we will continue to have the best and brightest agents, the most productive and educated, and we will continue to serve our clients better than any others!

Wishing you the best in 2013!

Coast to Coast “Buzz” – Market Rebound!

As we enter the 4thquarter of the year, we continue to see strong sales in real estate, low inventory levels of existing homes on the market and phenomenally low interest rates.  I just got back from the RE/MAX California-Hawaii Regional meetings and all the buzz was how the market is on the rebound and how there has never been a better time to buy a home.

It was funny, as I was headed to the airport back home yesterday, the taxi driver overheard my phone conversations.  When I was finally off the phone, he asked if I was in real estate.  When I confirmed his suspicion, even he commented – unsolicited – that more people should be buying a home today.  He had no real estate experience and he couldn’t understand why people were paying more in rent than if they were to buy under the current conditions.  He even made the comment that workers at 7-11 could really buy a house today because they could actually qualify for a mortgage -not like wat was happening in the past.

West Coast to East Coast – the “Buzz” is Market Rebound!

We are at historically high affordability rates for home ownership which makes today a great time to be a home owner or investor.  From the investor’s side of the equation, there are many people who cannot buy because of past history, some are only relocating temporarily to the area, and some are just plain old gun shy to buy because of the negative housing market over the last 5 years.  Therefore, with prices down from the all-time highs but making their way up the ladder, a good renter pool, great financing options for investors – now is the time to get in the game!  Home ownership is a long term investment strategy that can pay big dividends later.  To learn more about becoming an investor, call us today.  We would be happy to speak with you about your financial goals and objectives.

Got a plan?

As you start to think about business planning this year I put together a few thoughts for you to review before our session begins.  Imagine starting a business – which you all have done by becoming independent contractors  – with only a vague idea of what kind of product or service you would sell or provide to clients.  You meet with potential investors and you say, we may sell IPad skins in Europe or set up a mobile dog washing service in the Mid-West, and let’s just see what happens.  How would they respond?  Not very favorably is my thought, how about you?  You should never start a business without a clearly defined business plan, set of goals, a plan of action to accomplish the goals, and numbers for you to track to keep you on target to get you where you need to go.  This is our objective today.  Help you assemble the framework to get you down the right road to the success you desire.

As we work through today, think about the following questions:

  • What are your goals as a Realtor?   Is it money?  Is it the number of satisfied clients you want to have by the end of the year?  Is it starting a team to get you more balance in life?  Whatever the goals are yours but they must be written out, reviewed and then acted upon.
  • Do you have what it takes to reach the goals you have set for yourself?  Do you have the knowledge, expertise, sphere of influence, time and/or desire?  Think hard before you write them – just don’t write something down because it looks good or you think it could happen.  Be realistic.
  • How will your goals be achieved?  What is your plan of action?  How will your day be structured to achieve these goals?  Are you in the right frame of mind to make it happen?  Your attitude is extremely important in this endeavor.  As Zig Ziglar says, stinkin’ thinkin’ doesn’t work.
  • Are you willing to be held accountable to tracking your KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators)?  Will you participate in Jason’s monthly review classes?  Will you meet with me one on one to review your progress?
  • Are you willing to put together a Gap Analysis being honest about where you are today, where you want to be next year this same time and what it will take to get you there?  As you do this, don’t compare yourself to others, compare yourself to you and who you are. 
  • Are you willing to make adjustments to make your goals a reality?  As we all know, the market changes, financing changes, regulations change – will you adjust your original plan to adapt?  Be open to constructive criticism about your plan?  And, be open to change?
  • As you go through today, think strategically.  Stephen Covey says, you must begin with the end in mind.  Write down you goals, then work backwards to make it happen.  Think of the people, tasks, time, and the number of communications it will take to make your goal a reality.  Then put it on paper to solidify it in your mind.

Are you ready to be all you can be and stop making excuses?  Then let’s get started!

Now, if you aren’t ready, perhaps you should consider a different career or continue to do the same things you have always done and continue to get the same results.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

RE/MAX International Regional Quarterly conference call

          RE/MAX has formed a strategic alliance with Integrated Asset Management and will distribute leads to RE/MAX agents who are CDPE certified only.  IAM is affiliated with many big banks nationally.  If you are not yet certified, please get certified to enhance your business.  If you have taken the course, please update your profile on RE/MAX Maintenance.

          Keller Williams and RE/MAX difference – we are your business partner and don’t force you to recruit.  KW market center needs about 40 agents to reach profitability and are required to increase agent count by 10 agents per month – have to do this through recruiting any type of agent.  It takes an average of 5 years for an office to reach profitability and then you have to vest for 3 years before you get profit sharing – an average of 8 years prior to receiving profit sharing.  Profit sharing went from an average of $692 per year to $412 per year – a decrease of 40%.  No national advertising budget versus RE/MAX is extensive TV, billboard, newspaper and magazine advertising.  Top agents are encouraged to be involved the office politics through their agent advisory council are required to teach and as previously mentioned, are required to recruit.  We encourage you to do more business and grow your business

 

Now, go sell something!