Why has the real estate market slowed down?

Why has the real estate market slowed down?  In my opinion, it is a combination of a few factors.

Why has the real estate market slowed down?

First and foremost, it is interest rates.  Over the last year, rates have risen nearly 1.5%.  A lot of people say they can’t believe with rates so low, how people cannot qualify for a mortgage.  Well this kind of increase will remove buyers from the market regardless of where the rates start and where they end up – 3.25 to 4.75 or 8 to 9.5.   An increase in interest rates like this is going to have an impact on the market.

Also, house prices have increased by over 17% the last 3 years in our area.  This price increase has also helped to eliminate buyers from the market.  Higher prices in any area of our lives – cars, restaurants, food, etc. will eliminate buyers – it is a natural fact.  Couple this with the interest rate increase and we have a slower market.

Additionally, there are fewer homes to choose from in the lower price points as well making it difficult for buyers to even find acceptable housing to purchase.  There are only 1,210 properties priced below $300,000 in all of Northern Virginia and only 271 are single family homes, the rest are town houses or condos.  If there are fewer options for entry into the market, there are going to be fewer sales thus slowing down the market.

The upcoming finance reform with QM, QRM, and Basel III the first of the year together with the easing of QE 3 leaves a lot of speculation about the future of rates and sequentially, the housing market.  Keep a keen eye on these developments to measure their impact.

So is the sky falling Chicken Little? 

Why has the real estate market slowed down interest rate increase

Well, let the numbers tell the story.  The housing market today is not substantially different than this same time last year and everyone was excited about the market then.  Funny how the brisk spring market with low inventory, low interest rates and multiple contracts has clouded the vision of some people.  Inventory is up just 6% over last year – not a terrible or scary number.  Sales are up in a week to week comparison to last year by 3.5% – a pretty good increase, right?  The 2.1 month supply of homes is virtually the same as last year’s 2.0.  Distressed property inventory has dropped 40% – which is a fantastic number.  This has resulted in a majority of the increase in homes for sale being arm’s length transactions – another good thing.  The last number to mention is properties that settled the last 30 days.  We are up 14% over last year indicating we are actually experiencing more sales.  So, if looked at from a long term perspective, our real estate market is actually doing pretty well.  All this being said, we still need to price properties properly as well as get them in the right condition to get them sold for our clients.

Keep a positive outlook on the market, good things will happen.  Now, go sell something!

Scott MacDonald

RE/MAX Gateway, LLC

Video

How are Interest Rates affecting the Northern Virginia Real Estate?

Scott MacDonald of RE/MAX Gateway offers valuable information as to how interest rates are driving the real estate housing market in his video blog Scott’s Market Minute.

Sellers are urged to price houses competitively to sell fast. For a free Home Market Analysis, contact Scott MacDonald (703) 652-5777  There’s still time to get your home listed for sale!

Buyers, rates are climbing, now is the time to buy a home! Email Scott for a free optimized homes for sale search list. scottmacdonald@remax.net

Scotts Market Minute Prelude to Summer Real Estate Market in Northern Virginia

Scott’s Market Minute May 20, 2013

Scott MacDonald offers current market stats and information in his Market Minute for Northern Virginia. Inventory has increased slightly offering buyers a little more to look at. Home Buyers and Sellers will want to keep in mind that by closing before July 1, 2013 Grantor’s Tax increase you will save money. There’s still time to get your home listed for sale and sold! Call Scott MacDonald (703) 652-5777

Why is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market slowing down?

Scott MacDonald of RE/MAX Gateway offers valuable information and insight in his Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Minute as to why the Spring 2013 Northern Virginia Housing Market is slowing down just a little. Homes priced competitvely are selling fast! Home Buyers and Sellers will want to save money by closing before July 1, 2013 Grantor’s Tax increase. There’s still time to get your home listed for sale! Call Scott MacDonald (703) 652-5777

Potential Effects of Sequestration on Real Estate

There is a lot of optimism in the media about real estate.  It is refreshing after the last several years of negative press and all the pessimism surrounding real estate.  Here is some of the positive news about the market:

  • The number of people that are delinquent in their mortgage payments are down so as a result, short sales and foreclosures are less prevalent in the market.
  • Potential Effects of Sequestration in Real Estate scottymacsblog With less distressed inventory, prices are increasing giving many people equity in their homes.  Many people may not be aware of their position in relation to their home’s value
  • Fewer foreclosures results in less crime – fewer people are stealing appliances, HVAC units, cabinets, lighting, etc. from the foreclosed properties and there aren’t as many people squatting
  • Inventory is low as buyers are in the market purchasing properties
  • Sellers, in many cases are seeing multiple offers on their houses
  • Interest rates remain below 4%
  • Consumer confidence is up
  • New home sales are up
  • Builder confidence is up
  • The rental market is strong and will continue to increase which is good for investors
  • As the real estate market improves, so does the overall economy

It is great to see us getting out of the weeds but there is still a lot of work ahead of us.  Sequestration and the resulting budget cuts will impact thousands of people – how will this impact the housing recovery.  Lending guidelines continue to tighten and the cost of obtaining a mortgage is rising – will this prevent too many people from entering the housing market?  Appraisals are often times coming in low because of escalating house prices with multiple offers and low supply – will this prevent too many sales from happening?

As a professional Realtor, committed to our clients, we can help you with providing you with the right advice to help you navigate the real estate market.  Feel free to call us with any questions.

Scott MacDonald (703) 652-5777

REMAX Gateway Agents Training for Anticipated New Home Sales

This year the real estate market trend will shift to incorporate more new home construction sales as we are seeing fewer resale properties on the market. Inventory levels of resale existing homes were down as much as 30% throughout 2012 in NOVA. So we brought in the new home sales expert Suzanne Neff to educate our agents on how to be more successful in selling new homes and how to add more value as an agent in the new home sales process.
We also heard from Leslie Strittmatter with New Homes Guide . They provide a list of all new homes in an easy to use directory. If you don’t see a builder you know, just let Leslie know as this is a free service to the builder.
Suzanne offered us some very practical and insightful information that I would like to share with you:home under construction

  • Be wary of registration policies – every builder is different, time of registration & period, must be present upon registration.
  • Remember: 1st agent in – is their agent
  • Preview the new home – just like a resale
  • Ask to see entire agreement in advance of writing contract and review with the client prior to writing the contract.
  • Prior to writing contract talk with sales person about the negotiating position of the builder. It is important to know all the facts.
  • Ask about communication process of sales person – how often, with whom, etc.

Did you know … There are differences in builder’s contracts – builders add paragraphs when something happens in the past, deposits (flat fee, %, at contract writing, at selection time), no appraisal contingencies allowed, sometimes deposit on contingent contracts it is not refundable, days to make color selection – loan application, loan approval, etc., notice to close 2 days to 2 weeks.
Did you know … Some builders have in house mortgage/title with credit back for closing/options/etc. (have client get GFE to compare to your lender to see if builder will match) – do a chart to show what the breakeven time-frame would be for them to “not” use the builder contract. Often times, it is more difficult for the outside lender to work with the title company and vice versa. Builder likes control.
Did you know … Keep client in property 2 weeks past closing because it is your responsibility to keep a roof over their head – not the builders. Permit process may delay closing, weather may delay closing. Never schedule back to back moves.
Did you know … Get a copy of the contract at contract writing or you may not get one for over 30 days.
Did you know … Many contracts say- products/offerings are subject to change without notice and builder has the ability to switch out products of similar quality – make your buyers aware of this clause so there are no surprises. Shortages may occur as factories are not ready for increase in sales. Prices – hello, the market is hot and manufacturers may raise their prices and builder may switch manufacturers.
Did you know … You need to ask how many inspections are there and which ones can we, as agents, attend and which ones can the buyer attend.
Did you know ... Most builders will want the home inspector there before or after scheduled walk through. Some will want you to use their approve inspectors.
Did you know… Most builders want to build a product they are proud of and will stand behind their product. Most every builder will have a form that “waives their right to warranties” because they, the builder, will offer a better warranty than what is required by Virginia and often times, the vendors they use give longer warranties than what the state requires.

Have you ever considered “why do people like being new home sales agent?” This is good to think about just so you know the basic type of personality you may be potentially working with throughout the sales process:

They like to sell; they also strongly desire and rely on support of administration staff; they typically like to know where they are going everyday; a salary and/or draw is often part of their compensation; they typically participate in health care benefits that the builder potentially offers; sales commission structures differ between builders but obviously, the more they sell, the more they earn; two days off with 40+ hours a week – days off vary during the week (so be sure to call and find out their schedule because not all assistants know the neighborhood, offerings, etc.); and new home sale persons must be ready to sell at any time because you/your client may be the only person they see all week – this is another reason why it is so important to call ahead, so you can get the data and let them sell their product when you bring your client in.

Suzanne strongly suggests taking the time to call before taking your client in to the sales office. This introductory conversation shows your level of professionalism to the new home sales person, and even more importantly, the information you provide to your client shows them that you are doing exactly what you promised: helping them find a home and representing them in their purchase of their new home.

Here are some great questions to ask the sales person:

  • What is the Registration policy?
  • How much will Agent be paid?
  • What is the commission percentage based on?
  • What are their hours?
  • When is the sales person available?
  • What is available?
  • What is price range?
  • What is average sales price?
  • What is building time frame/delivery time?
  • Are there any buyer incentives being offered by the builder?
  • Do you know of any price increases in the near future?
  • Convey something about your clients and background of their move.

Kevin Harris is an award-winning residential architect, international speaker, champion of culture-based design, an LSU and Harvard GSD graduate, father of 3, Eagle Scout, blue water sailor and Fellow of the AIA. For more information on Kevin or the firm go to http://www.kevinharrisarchitect.com.

Remember this is an emotional time, so be sure to be there for your clients.

As market continues to move in the builder’s favor, negotiations on pricing and incentives for mortgages using mortgage and title partners will be less, credits for upgrades go away, and in some cases, deposits will become non-refundable. Be sure to be a professional Realtor and know more so you can earn the trust and respect of your clients and the new home sales professionals. Get it? Got it? Good!
Now, go sell something!

Summertime market…it’s gonna be fun!

The spring real estate market is hopping along as we enter the summertime “fun in the sun” buying and selling season.  Our inventory levels remain very low for this time of year – we actually have seen inventory levels on the decline in recent weeks.  Multiple contract situations are more the norm than the anomaly, which can be frustrating for buyers.  Prices have stabilized but we need to see them increase to help out people in the area that are still underwater with their house values.  Although we have people still underwater on their houses, distressed property inventory remains very low – only 11% of all inventory consists of short sales and foreclosures.

The big news this month seems to be the rise in consumer confidence in our area compared with the rest of the country.  My feeling is people are becoming more optimistic in Northern Virginia because we have jobs and our housing market is strong.  We have a 1.5 month’s supply of resale properties and a 1.1 month’s supply of rental properties.  People are not only out looking at properties but they are actually buying houses.  Agents are working hard and diligently working on listings and contracts.  The environment around the office is fast paced and optimistic as the agents are busy helping our clients buy and sell houses.  Our lenders and title partners are expressing a lot of the same sentiments with the market and its activity.  In addition, there is a lot of “good” publicity surrounding the real estate market which is a welcomed reprieve from the last several years of nothing but negative news.  All of this information will propel us into the summertime selling season so if you are looking at your options with real estate, give us a call.

The Market is Hot, Hot, Hot!

The spring market is in full swing. This past weekend I was with an agent and they had 3 contracts on 3 different listings that went on the market the previous Thursday. One of them had multiple offers. In addition, we put a house back on the market last week that was on the market previously for about five months with no activity and got a contract on it over the weekend. So there are a lot of buyers out their looking, inventory levels seemed to have increased, but only slightly, interest rates remain low, days on market and months’ supply continue to stay relatively low as well. So if you are looking to sell, now is a great time. The trees are in bloom and the market is hot just like the weather! Let us know what we can do for you this Spring!

So this is what Deja Vu feels like!

The real estate market reminds me of the Bill Murray movie Ground Hog’s Day because I continue to say very similar things each month.  We have very low inventory of houses, fewer than 4,800 in all of Northern Virginia.  It has been this low for over 5 weeks and we haven’t seen inventory levels this consistently low since 2005.  Interest rates remain at historic lows and it appears as if they are going to stay this low through 2014 unless something unforeseen happens in the economy.  Lastly, we continue to see a drastic decrease in distressed property inventory in Northern Virginia and the onslaught of foreclosures will not happen locally.  We have just 592 short sales and 290 foreclosures on the market and Notice of Trustee sales are only averaging 2 pages per day.  Short sales and Notice of Trustee sales lead to foreclosures and if we don’t have them, we won’t see them.

The one thing that we typically don’t see this time of year is the number of attendees at open houses we are currently seeing.  It is more typical than not to hear our agents having 20-40 people attend an open house and receiving multiple contracts as a result.  This type of activity is more likely to happen in the spring but warm weather and consumer confidence building has helped spur this activity.  As I have said in the past, if sellers properly price their properties, have it in prime condition and have it staged, they are receiving multiple offers because buyers are buying.

What are we reading in the news about the rest of the country and the market that will indirectly affect us?  While delinquencies and defaults slowly improve in the housing economy as a whole, FHA’s portfolio has not had the same good fortune.  The woes of FHA are creating increased pressure on the agency to reduce risk and increase costs to its borrowers, most of whom are first time buyers.  In December, about one of every 10 FHA mortgages or 9.73 percent, were seriously delinquent, or more than 90 days past due.  Compare that to all mortgages, whose seriously delinquent rate fell to 7.3% in December from 7.8 a year earlier.  For nine straight months, FHA delinquencies have risen while mortgages in general have improved.   We will keep an eye on this for you and let you know when the costs increase.  On a positive note for those going through short sales and loan modifications, President Obama Proposes Extending Tax Waiver on Mortgage Debt Forgiveness that is due to expire at the end of this year.  The Act ensures that homeowners who received principal reductions or other forms of debt forgiveness on their primary residence do not have to pay taxes on the amount forgiven.  In addition to this, some banks are paying people to aid in their short sales.  JP Morgan Chase went national with short-sale incentive offers last year, paying up to $35,000 in some cases.  Bank of America is testing incentives from $5,000 to $25,000 in Florida to see if they should be expanding to more states.  Wells Fargo’s incentive offers range of less than $3,000 to $20,000.  Short sales, even with incentive payments to borrowers, can save lenders money compared with the expenses involved in completing foreclosures.  Let us know if you need our assistance with either of these scenarios.

If you have questions about your personal situation, please feel free to call us.  We are here to help you with all of your real estate needs.

My Top 10 Predictions for 2012

Credit unions in real estate – if the merger between Pen Fed and Prudential Caruthers is successful – and only time will tell – more credit unions will look to enter the market.  If the merger muddles along as it is now, other credit unions will remain on the sidelines.  This one will be interesting to watch as NAR and RPAC spent so much time and money keeping banks out of the business.

The Presidential election – Nearly 1/3 of voters say how the candidates view housing will impact how they vote.  The foreclosure crisis and 11 million people with negative equity are what concern so many Americans.  Next to unemployment, the stance they take on housing will drive the election.  Therefore, agents will need to get busy listing and selling houses the first half of the year as I see people going back to the sidelines after July to see who wins and what policy they will put in place for housing.

Interest rates – if they go higher, they will crush the fragile housing market which the Federal Reserve will not allow.  Unlike last year’s prediction where I predicted rates to get to 6% and was wrong, this year I believe they will stay in the 4 – 5% range but closer to 4% than 5%.  This is what will keep some people in the home buying mode.

New home sales locally will continue to rise.  The shortage of resale properties available, the fact that 20% of our market is distressed and buyers are tired of the short sale process will continue to drive buyers to new homes.  Price will continue to also play a role in the new home market.  Builders will have to stay within reason and not price themselves out of the market.

Land values in our area will continue to rise.  Fueled by lack of inventory and new home sales, land values will continue to increase.  We are seeing new signs popping up on vacant land already.

Existing home Sales forecast will stay flat.  Unemployment, the election, strict lending guidelines and the fallout from foreclosures will keep people at bay from jumping into home purchases.

Lending guidelines will stay strict and may get even stricter.  As such, it will make our job as Realtors even more challenging.  Both buyers and sellers need to choose a professional and only work with local lenders – not internet lenders.

Foreclosures in NOVA versus rest of USA – we will continue to see low levels of foreclosures in NOVA for the first 6 months of the year, at least.  Notice of trustee sales are down in the papers, short sales make up less than 14% of our market and as such, foreclosures won’t be as prevalent.  The rest of the country needs to be leery as unemployment and dropping values continue to put pressure on home owners and foreclosures will follow as a result.

Investor market and rents – as the inventory of houses shrink throughout Northern Virginia, people remaining leery of the housing market, and lending guidelines continue to tighten – our rental market will continue to be strong and rents will increase.  The good ole supply and demand theory of economics.  This will in turn bring more investors into the market.

Now you have my Top Ten Predictions for the real estate market in Northern Virginia.  Let’s meet up again this time next year and see how I did!  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!