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Is it over yet? Why Northern Virginia Home Sales Went On A Wild Roller Coaster Ride

October took the real estate market roller coaster ride.

Rates went up, rates came down.  Sales went down, sales went up.  Inventory rose, inventory came back down.

Real Estate Market Roller Coaster Ride 31OCT2013

In some areas, the number of multiple contracts went down, then they went back up.  Inventory of short sales and foreclosures were down, then they rose but luckily by not too much.  The government shut down and the government opened back up – luckily, it was not too long and did not have a tremendous impact on the housing market.

Our emotions went up, our emotions came back down, as there was a lot of concern about delays in closings associated with the shut down because of the reduced number of employees at FHA and the IRS, but we avoided a potential disaster there.  Additionally, we were worried about the government defaulting on their debt which would have sent interest rates skyrocketing, and again, fortunately, this did not happen.

Even though there were so many ups and downs, the market in October this year was still better compared to a year ago.  There were more home sales, higher home prices and more homes for sale for buyers to choose from, although the uncertainty skewed people’s perception.  So now you know why October was such a roller coaster for real estate.

What lies ahead on the horizon as we enter the winter market?  My belief is we will be in our typical winter market.  Homes will come off the market for the holidays.  Motivated, savvy buyers will be out buying homes.  Interest rates will remain in the low 4% range.  Home prices will continue to stabilize throughout the Northern Virginia area.  Houses that are priced right, in the right condition and right location will see multiple offers and our market won’t be as up and down as it was in October.  Basically, we will continue to have a robust housing market locally.

To learn more about your situation, please feel free to call me today. Scott MacDonald (703) 652-5777.

Scott MacDonald

RE/MAX Gateway, LLC

Forecasting The Real Estate Market With Government Shutdown

Wow, where did September go?  It was a very interesting month – kids went back to school, football season started, the weather has changed, the housing market remained strong and the government shut down for the first time in 17 years.

Forecasting The Real Estate Market With Government Shutdown

It will be interesting to see how the stock market reacts to the government shutdown, what the impact will be on rates, the housing market and how long it lasts.  If it is a quick shut down, we will probably see little reaction in the stock market and as a result, rates and the housing market.  If it is a prolonged shutdown of a few weeks or more, the stock market will have a negative reaction, rates will rise as bond yields decrease and we could see a loss of momentum in the housing sector of the economy.  What will happen to government backed loans in process and how will it affect settlements?  None of these are helpful to our economy since the housing recovery leads the economic recovery as a whole.  At this time, it appears as if this could last longer than just a day or two so let’s get prepared for a rocky economic road the next few weeks.

Let’s talk about the real estate market in September.  We did see a pickup in sales over last year in Northern Virginia.  Inventory increased slightly which gave buyers more choices.  As inventory increased, distressed properties made up a lower percentage of this increase which is great for home owners.  New home sales continue their strong pace of sales.  Interest rates came back down as the government eased off their threat of reducing their purchasing of mortgage backed securities and we still see multiple contracts on properties in certain price points and locations.

All in all, September was a good month for Northern Virginia real estate.  We need this trend to continue, so let’s hope the shutdown gets resolved more quickly than it appears it will.

If you have any additional questions or concerns, please feel free to call me directly (703) 652-5777

Scott MacDonald

RE/MAX Gateway, LLC

What You Need To Know When Buying or Selling a House In Northern Virginia This Summer 2013

The real estate market continues to be hyper-local today.  We are seeing multiple contracts in many areas and yet houses are sitting on the market in others.  Prices are rising in many areas while we see price reductions in others.  We see houses staying on the market for mere hours to just a few days in some areas while other markets see houses staying on the market for over 30 days to even longer further out from Washington.  If you are buying or selling it is important to seek the advice of a professional so you know what the market is like in your area of interest to give you the right advice.

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There are some aspects of the market that are not hyper-local.  These areas that are influencing the market are interest rates and distressed property inventory.  Interest rates have been on the rise for nearly the whole month of May.  Don’t get me wrong, interest rates are still great and people shouldn’t be concerned but if you are waiting for them to come back down to make a move, the sage advice is to do something now and don’t delay as it will cost you more in the future.  As far as short sales and foreclosures are concerned, their numbers continue to dwindle in Northern Virginia which is great news for everyone who owns a home.  As of the end of May, only 6.1% of the total inventory was made up of distressed homes and they represented only 8.2% of sales in the region.  How does this affect the market?  These numbers have help aid in the rising of prices throughout our area as there are fewer blighted properties, more people caring for their yards and homes so everybody wins.

Our real estate market continues to be one of the best in the country because of our low unemployment rates, increasing property values, tourism, plus we have easy access to water, mountains and all the Washington DC metro area has to offer.  Please let us know how we can help you or someone you know looking to buy or sell a home.  (703) 652-5777

Scott MacDonald

RE/MAX Gateway, LLC

 

Scotts Market Minute Prelude to Summer Real Estate Market in Northern Virginia

Scott’s Market Minute May 20, 2013

Scott MacDonald offers current market stats and information in his Market Minute for Northern Virginia. Inventory has increased slightly offering buyers a little more to look at. Home Buyers and Sellers will want to keep in mind that by closing before July 1, 2013 Grantor’s Tax increase you will save money. There’s still time to get your home listed for sale and sold! Call Scott MacDonald (703) 652-5777

Platinum Group: Hot Topics in the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

In a recent Platinum Group meeting we discussed many hot topics in the real estate market today.  They included the appraisal issues we are encountering that I discussed in my last blog, new home sales, the rental market and of course, low supply and high demand.

New home prices are rocketing up, incentives are going away, one builder sold 13 houses last weekend in Prince William County and took closing costs down to just $5,000 when they were offering more at the beginning of the weekend.  Nationally, new home sales dropped but not in Northern Virginia.

Platinum Group Hot Topics FEB 2013 scottymacsblog

Lack of resale inventory is leading buyers to new homes.  When buyers go to new homes, their prices increase.  Be careful as a lot of builders don’t have appraisal contingencies in their contracts.  Ask what happens if house doesn’t appraise.

The rental market continues to be on fire.  We have a 1.7 month supply of rentals available in Northern Virginia.  Prices have stabilized and move quickly when they are in good shape.  Additionally, in a recent article, it was estimated there will be another 6.6 million renters in the market.  It makes now a good time to work with investors, understand the rental process or even start a property management company.

One other topic we discussed was the lack of inventory of resale properties on the market.  It has been mentioned that we are at an 11 year low in terms of available properties.  When something is desirable, we have seen as many as 14 contracts on one home.  It is time to structure offers for our buyers so they can win in multiple contract situations.

 

To learn more about the market or our networking group, feel free to reach out to me.  scottmacdonald@remax.net

Now, go sell something!

Video

A Short Tale About Home Inventory In The Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

Scott MacDonald shares current information on the Northern Virginia housing market. Scott’s video blog offers the latest on shortsales, foreclosures, appraisals, rental market and housing inventory – and his hair! Thinking about buying or selling your home? Contact Scott directly (703) 652-5777 or scottmacdonald@remax.net Read more… scottymacsblog.com

Get in the Know…now!

We recently attended the RISMedia convention in New York and have compiled notes that I will share with you on what was discussed and comment – occasionally how it will affect our business and ask that you do research on certain topics to inform yourself to give our clients the most up-to-date information so they can make the right decisions when buying or selling a house.

Finance update

FHA

There have been two price increases on FHA loans recently – upfront MI and monthly MI.

-Lenders paid less on FHA loans.

-FHA loan amounts decrease.

-Potential increase in down payment requirements are also on the horizon.

-FHA Loans are 30% of the market.

-MI – 5% down training on MI is required for agents who want to stay in the know!

Additional facts on the market:

-2/3 mortgage applications don’t go through.

-Do consumers understand the process of obtaining credit – no – Agents are transactional

-7 million people have been out of work for 26+ weeks.

-19.8% of all prior mortgages are 90+days delinquent.

-Eminent defaults are on the horizon – stay tuned.

-60 million + people with less than 630 credit score.

Lenders are looking for point of sale contact with Realtors

-Want to help you grow your biz and attract more agents into their database?

The question is how?

-Training and education

-Shared marketing dollars

-Leads

-Exposure to listings through marketing ventures.

– What else can they provide?

GSE’s are stagnant on Capitol Hill and we shouldn’t expect progress anytime soon.  Too much else is on their plate.

270 points in Dodd-Frank bill – The lending industry WILL change.  We are expecting to receive talking points of the bill for you to share with your clients so stay tuned!

Do you know what Qualified Residential Mortgages are?  It is important to stay up on the trends.  QRM will push a 1/3 of Buyers out of market.  The comment period on QRM ends 6/10/2011 – get in the know and make your comments to your elected officials!

“Stuff” is thrown up against the wall right on Capitol Hill now to see what sticks

 – A tax on new home sales was proposed so that the existing home inventory could get absorbed and new home sales would subside as a result.

What is the HAMP Mod’s default rate within 6 months?  It occurs 60% of the time.

Average consumer has 13 credit obligations – 9 credit cards.

48% of college students leave school with bad credit

58% of college grads move home because of poor credit.

Ask your clients, “What is likelihood of you buying furniture, blinds, etc., if you do, can you really afford this house with this additional debt?”

Become a long term trusted advisor for your clients – provide valuable content – early and often.

Education is a continued effort so get educated.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

 

Don’t kick yourself later…stay on top of the trends!

Platinum Group April 2011

The Platinum Group is made up of Realtors from various companies that meet once per month who earn in excess of $250,000 – the true top producers in the business.  We discuss market conditions, trends, short sales, foreclosures and many other topics.  The advice given should be taken to heart if you are in the market to buy or sell as this is relevant information in regards to our market.  If you are an agent, feel free to share what we discuss with your clients.

Spring has sprung…inventory levels are up just as we had expected them to be this time of year but what has surprised me is that the level has jumped 13% in just 2 weeks.  Luckily, there are buyers out there looking to own because decent listings are coming on and off the market.  Houses are selling but the properties need be in the right condition and priced right.  Above average condition is selling – low prices are selling – if you have both they are sold, if you only have one or the other you are sitting on the market.  It is imperative now more than ever to understand this scenario.  If you don’t, the house will stay on the market.

Although inventory levels are rising, the good news about our market is that foreclosure and short sale activity have been stable and are making up a lower percentage of the inventory available.  I am not completely sure if we have seen the bottom on this or not – my experience and what will be written about later also indicate we are not completely out of the woods in regards to distressed properties.

In the price range $475,000-650,000, there has been little to no activity in Centreville/Chantilly…first time buyers are buying and the wealthy understand the value of the market – interest rates, property values, etc. so they are buying in upper price points.  The reason for this being a difficult price point is because of lack of move up buyers in the market today.  Many move up buyers over the last 3-4 years have either short sold or got foreclosed on so there is now a void in the market – it may take a few more years for this segment of the market to recover – stay tuned!

Sellers are more willing to do work today – they are watching home improvement shows, are  going on line and look at other properties and how they are presented and making the house show to attract buyers.  Putting the home in model condition is the key.  Decluttering, neutralizing colors, sprucing up the yard, packing up belongings and getting a storage unit are the keys to getting the house in the right condition to sell.  I find it interesting that we spoke about this on more than one occasion this month.

Be careful how you load you photos – some internet sites only pull the first 5 posted on MLS.

Foreclosure releases are slow and have been since November.  Many people are still in the house because they know they can stay in the house and not pay any mortgage or rent and cash for keys is nowhere near the savings of not paying at all.  In reviewing the paper and in particular, the public notice section, more foreclosures are likely to come on the as filing notices are increasing in the paper.  Fannie Mae is sitting on 162,000 properties valued at $15 Billion.  All total with banks, and Freddie included, there is over $1 Trillion inventory.  Obviously, these numbers are national numbers – we are looking into local numbers so stay tuned.

To understand the consequences of short sales and foreclosures, go to www.lindaferrari.com she has all the potential scenarios.  Your credit score may be the least of your worries.

Interest rates are projected to be in the range they are today through the summer which should help us absorb the increase in inventory levels this time of year.

This is valuable, timely and informative which needs to be acted upon and/or shared.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

What’s on the horizon?

Inventory levels on active listings are creeping up and they have been consistently increasing since the beginning of the year.  We have seen an escalation in the number of houses going on the market each week, week over week except one.  This is definitely something to watch especially as mortgage rates begin to rise.  We have seen a slight increase in interest rates – they have only increased 1/4% since last week this time but they are rising.  The good news is it isn’t as drastic as many predicted as the Fed eased out of buying mortgage backed securities but it is probably keen advice to give to your clients to lock in today and not play the waiting game here!  The saying is “rates take the escalator down but the elevator up”, don’t wait.

Another key factor to watch as inventory rises is the pricing of your properties…how is the activity at your listing?  Are you experiencing lots of buyers going through and have you had no contracts?  Have you had little to no traffic going through the house?  If so, the price may be high.  Check comps again, look at inventory levels in competing price points and the surrounding area.  How has the absorption rate been in and around your listing?  Do the research and price it properly today so you aren’t chasing the market tomorrow!  Many sellers hear the market has rebounded price wise in our area because of the recent article in the Washington Examiner and the brisk pace of sales recently but remember to caution them that the market is local and in many cases hyper local so be careful on pricing it a little high for negotiations.  Be the professional and let the numbers tell the story of the market.

So, what is on the horizon?

On Monday, upfront mortgage insurance on FHA loans goes from 1.75 to 2.25% – revise your buyer closing cost sheets as this will have an impact on their payments.  Seller contributions are reduced from 6% to 3% and down payments on FICO scores 580 and below are increased to 10%.

The short sale process – in some cases may get better after April 5th.  Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program affects home sellers with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae backed mortgages.  Not all properties qualify so check the websites of these GSE’s and see if the seller’s loan is with either one before proceeding or check www.makinghomeaffordable.com/contact_servicer.html to see who the loan servicer is on the property. 

Here are the guidelines accompanying the program: 

  • This program complements HAMP by providing a viable alternative for borrowers (the current homeowners) who are HAMP eligible but nevertheless unable to keep their home. HAFA alternatives are available to all HAMP-eligible borrowers who:   1) do not qualify for a Trial Period Plan;  2) do not successfully complete a Trial Period Plan;  3) miss at least two consecutive payment during a HAMP modification; or, 4) request a short sale or deed-in-lieu.
  • Property is principal residence.
  • Mortgage originated before Jan. 1, 2009.
  • Borrower is delinquent or default is foreseeable.
  • Borrower's total monthly housing payment exceeds 31 percent of gross income.
  • Unpaid principal does not exceed $729,750.
  • Homeowner demonstrates hardship. 
  • The program utilizes the borrower’s financial and hardship information already collected in connection with consideration of a loan modification.  The borrower must have applied for and been denied a loan modification prior to entry into this program.   Allows borrowers to receive pre-approved short sales terms before listing the property (including the minimum acceptable net proceeds).
  • Requires borrowers to be fully released from future liability for the first mortgage debt (no cash contribution, promissory note, or deficiency judgment is allowed).
  • Uses standard processes, documents, and timeframes/deadlines.  These deadlines include:  the borrower has 14 days from acceptance of services to return the Short Sale Agreement to their servicer in which they are granted 120 days to sell the house.  Once an offer is received, the agent must provide a RASS (Request for Approval of Short Sale) within 3 business days of receiving offer along with new buyer preapproval and all lien information to the servicer.  The servicer has 10 business days to accept the offer along with provisions to settle or deny the offer and they must provide an explanation of the denial.  Settlement must occur within 45 days.  The new buyers cannot “flip” or sell the property for 90 days and it must be an “arms length” transaction.
  • Provides the following financial incentives:
    • $3,000 for borrower relocation assistance;
    • $1,500 for servicers to cover administrative and processing costs;
    • Up to $2,000 for investors who allow a total of up to $6,000 in short sale proceeds to be distributed to subordinate lien holders, on a one-for-three matching basis.
    • Realtors cannot charge or receive commissions in excess of 6% and if the buyer or seller is a Realtor, they cannot receive a commission in connection with the transaction – including any side deals.
  • Requires all servicers participating in HAMP to implement HAFA in accordance with their own written policy, consistent with investor guidelines. The policy may include factors such as the severity of the potential loss, local markets, timing of pending foreclosure actions, and borrower motivation and cooperation.

There is opportunity here people…know the program and know the process and you can sell more houses!  On Monday, April 5th at 7:00pm Margret Kelly will be hosting a program with BOA on Equator and how the program works.  Watch it on RE/MAX University.

Also, in an effort to assist with the HAFA and HAMP programs, many banks have agreed to participate in the 2MP program.  The 2MP was designed to work in tandem with the Home Affordable Modification Program and is aimed at helping homeowners who have a second home equity mortgage.   The Treasury estimates, up to 50 percent of at-risk mortgages also have second liens associated with them.

To qualify for the program, homeowners must successfully complete a trial modification on their first mortgage. Then, if the servicer of the borrower’s second line in a 2MP participant, the servicer must offer to modify the second lien or accept a lump sum payment from Treasury in exchange for fully doing away with the second lien.

Her are the guidelines in which the 2MP program is designed to work:

  • Only second liens with corresponding first liens that have been modified under HAMP are eligible for a modification or extinguishment under 2MP.
  • Second lines originated on or before January 1, 2009 are eligible for a modification or extinguishment under 2MP.
  • A second lien may be modified only once under 2MP
  • A mortgage loan that is subordinate to a second lien (i.e.: third, fourth position loans, etc) is ineligible under 2MP. However, modification or extinguishment of such a subordinate mortgage lien in place of the second lien will not satisfy the servicer’s obligation under 2MP to modify or extinguish the second lien.
  • If a second lien is modified under 2MP, it is not eligible for payment of extinguishment incentives under 2MP
  • A mortgage lien that would be in second lien position but for a tax lien, a mechanic’s lien or other non-mortgage related lien that has priority is eligible under 2MP
  • A second lien on which no interest is charged and no payments are due until the first lien is paid in full (e.g., FHA partial claims liens and/or equity appreciation loans) is not eligible under 2MP
  • Borrowers may be accepted into the program if a fully executed 2MP modification agreement or trial period plan is in the servicer’s possession on December 31, 2012.

All servicers of eligible second liens may participate in 2MP. A servicer need not service the related first lien or participate in HAMP in order to participate in 2MP.

 

Here are some helpful links:

https://www.hmpadmin.com/portal/programs/foreclosure_alternatives.html

http://www.realtor.org/government_affairs/short_sales_hafa

http://sccrealestateuncensored.com/2010/second-lien-modification-program-2mp/

Interest rates

Interest rates are expected to go up but luckily it is not at the pace or severity that many had speculated.  The funds rate are set to stay at the 0 to .25% level to help keep mortgage interest rates low.  Once again, we are relying on Wall Street to step up and help create the secondary market to buy mortgage backed securities and keep rates affordable to consumers.  Let’s hope this short trend continues!

In our conversation with Paul Muolo at the quarterly meeting last week, he mentioned that there had only been one big purchase of bulk loans, well….there has been another large purchase this week.  To learn about the details, which is unbelievable to me, check out the article at http://www.dsnews.com/articles/print-view/fdic-finds-taker-for-490-million-in-home-loans-2010-04-01

More good news

First American Core Logic has estimates that the Washington Region will be floating – out from being underwater by2015!  This is ahead of 10 other key markets.   There study was based upon an annual 3.3% reduction in loan balances coupled with 3% appreciation over the next decade.  They had estimated that 11.3 million or 24% of homes with mortgages were under water in Q4 of 2009.

As discussed before, today, more than ever, it is extremely important to stay educated on the market, what is coming down the road and know how to make the appropriate adjustments to thrive in any market.  You gotta learn more to earn more.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!