Market Trends

August 2024 Market Update

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As we enter August, the real estate market isn’t as hot as the weather we’ve been experiencing this year. Despite this, it remains a strong seller’s market, though the intensity has cooled slightly compared to earlier in the year. You may recall from previous newsletters that we saw sight-unseen offers significantly above the list price and multiple offers waiving all contingencies. While sight-unseen offers have become less common, we still see multiple offers, though it may now be only two or three rather than five to ten. Additionally, buyers are now able to negotiate contingencies, which I believe is a positive development.

With kids heading back to school soon, families might consider moves aligning with school district boundaries. This time of year often prompts discussions about relocating to be closer to schools or settling into a new area before the academic year kicks off. Whether you’re contemplating a move or thinking about selling, this seasonal transition can influence housing decisions for many families.

Looking ahead, there are several factors that might influence the market this August. First, Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race and Kamala Harris, now the Democratic nominee to run against Donald Trump could affect buyers’ decisions. We’ll have to watch how this impacts sales trends compared to previous years. Despite inflation dropping to 3%, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has opted not to lower the Fed rate, which could have future implications. There is speculation about a potential rate cut in September, followed by additional cuts in November and December. While this seems aggressive, we will see how it unfolds. Mortgage rates did decrease steadily in July, now standing in the high 6% range, but this didn’t result in a surge of sales, which was unexpected. It might be attributed to the seasonal slowdown we typically see in the summer months, especially now that we are past the pandemic period.

I will provide updates on August’s sales next month, so stay tuned for more information. Additionally, mid-August brings changes in how buyer agent compensation is advertised, which could impact sales, buyer representation, and seller decisions regarding compensating buyer agents. These are indeed interesting times, and I will keep you informed about these developments.

As always, I am here as a resource for you, whether you are considering selling or buying. Feel free to reach out to discuss your situation in more detail. Additionally, if you purchased a home in the last year, now might be a good time to refinance your loan! Contact me to discuss your interest rate options. Stay cool!

June 2024 Market Update

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What do you think the real estate market will be like this summer? Will buyers be experiencing the summertime blues with a lack of inventory, interest rates in the 7% range, increasing prices, and strong demand from other buyers, keeping it a tight seller’s market? Will sellers do the right things to sell their homes by properly pricing their house, staging so it is ready for market, and be able to choose from multiple buyers, making it difficult for some people to become homeowners?

Will interest rates come down with the spread between 10-year yield and 30-year fixed interest rates coming closer together? If this happens, will more people put their homes on the market because they won’t have as much mortgage rate lock-in effect? Will inventory increase because the only thing people like about their house is their interest rate, and they are ready to move? Will buyers stay put if rates don’t come down because of affordability issues?

The most consistent theme in these questions is interest rates, right? Yes, but also inventory. These are the major factors that dictate the real estate market and, of course, pricing. If we see fewer houses on the market coupled with lower rates, we will see more buyers and higher prices. If we see higher rates, we will have fewer buyers and, hence, more inventory, so prices will moderate and, in some cases, may come down.

Nationally, we are seeing more houses for sale, but locally, we have only slightly more inventory than last year, which is way below the 5-year average for active homes for sale. Again, demand remains high in our area, insulating us from broader market trends and news headlines about the real estate market around the country. That’s why having a knowledgeable agent is crucial to understand local market conditions and trends. If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell a home, I am here to help.

Please feel free to reach out to discuss my answers to the questions above. Enjoy the long days and warm temperatures!

June 2022 Market Update

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Lately, we’ve been having conversations with each other, our clients, and others in the industry both locally and around the country to better understand what is happening today in the real world and the Northern Virginia real estate market. Lots of questions are being asked. Do we have a housing bubble in Northern Virginia? Are prices going to crash? When are prices coming down? Should I wait for prices to drop before I buy? Why is it taking longer to sell a house? How high will rates go? Should I sell (or buy) now or wait? 

In my opinion, prices will not be escalating at the rate they were previously. Those dramatic price increases were not sustainable. There may be pockets where prices decline, but we still have high demand at most price points.

Additionally, our price increases were not as drastic as in other parts of the country. According to the FHFA Top 100 Metropolitan Markets Ranking, we rank 99 out of 100! Other parts of the country will see higher price drops, but our area should remain stable. We will not have a “housing crash” in Northern Virginia. 

Don’t wait to buy real estate – buy real estate and wait. Buy because of your lifestyle, needs, and wants – and not strictly because of prices. Buy for the long term, not the short-term gains. Yes, the market has slowed down. Buyers are not “rushing” into buying decisions like they were previously, but remember – that type of market cannot be sustained. It is still a seller’s market. It’s a good thing when a house is on the market 7-10 days.  

If you are thinking of selling soon, give me a call. Rates are going up on 30-year fixed mortgages, but you do have alternatives – most notably, adjustable-rate mortgages and buydowns. The adjustable-rate mortgages are a great option and not what they were when the real estate market crashed in the past. Buydowns give you another option, with lower than 30-year fixed rates. Let’s discuss why these are often viable options for buyers. If you are looking to sell or buy – now is a great time, so call me to learn more.

Enjoy the last few days of Spring before the summer heat kicks in!

April 2022 Market Update

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How about this weather? Cold temps, blustery winds, snow, sleet, and sometimes sunshine and warm temperatures all on the same day. It’s so crazy; I can’t figure out what to wear today! These conditions remind me of the real estate market in Northern Virginia this last month. One house had 100 visitors and multiple contracts in two days; another had 15 visitors and one contract in four days – in the same neighborhood one week apart. We also have a house that has been on the market for more than two weeks with just a handful of showings and no ratified contract. As I always advise, you must have the house in pristine condition, priced right, and in a great location to get the most activity as well as contracts. If you think you can sell anything in this market, you are far from reality.

The real question of the month is, “when should I put my house on the market?” Interest rates have impacted the market as they continue to rise. We’ve had the most volatile few weeks of increases, with rates topping out at over 5%. This has some buyers looking to buy sooner rather than later (many believe rates will continue to rise), and they want to get in today. Another aspect to consider when I’m asked this question is the number of houses for sale – especially in your neighborhood. Overall, in Northern Virginia, inventory levels are down 29% from this same time last year – but inventory is rising. I also consider pricing when answering this question. Prices are up over 9% from last year, but with rising interest rates, inflation, and more homes for sale, price increases will not be as substantial as earlier this year. My answer is simple – get your house on the market sooner rather than later. Call me today if you are considering selling and want to see how this impacts you.

So how does all this impact buyers? If you are financially stable to buy a home, don’t wait – just go for it. Remember to buy for the right reasons – lifestyle, distance to work, and schools to name a few, just don’t forget what your why is. Don’t expect mortgage rates or home prices to come down because neither is going to happen for the foreseeable future. Waiting will cost you more. As the saying goes, ‘don’t wait to buy real estate; buy real estate and wait.’ If you are thinking about buying, call me, and we can discuss your situation in more detail.

In the meantime, have a great spring. Hopefully, the weather will begin to normalize soon!

March 2022 Market Update

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For me, the word of the month is ‘strategize’…and that’s because the real estate market is moving fast and furiously. If you don’t have a strategy, you will not be adequately positioned as a seller or a buyer. If you are a seller, do you fix up your house or just list it in its current condition? Do you price it low and hope for multiple offers? Do you price it at market and expect a few offers – or maybe just one? Or do you price it high and hope a frustrated buyer is willing to pay any price?

If you are a buyer – do you use an escalation clause? Do you waive all contingencies? Do you offer a free Post Settlement Occupancy Agreement? Do you want to add an appraisal gap statement? Do you take it “as is”? So many questions need to be addressed; each situation is different and should be analyzed individually. The good news is that I have the answers for you, whether you are looking to sell or buy in today’s market, who you work with matters!

As you know, not every house will sell just because of the market. You still need to have the right strategy to get it sold. On the flip side, a strong offer can position you to win over multiple other contracts with the right strategy, so call me to discuss your situation in more detail. I am always here to help.

I am getting many real estate-related questions lately – will the rising interest rates hurt the market? Will the market be impacted by the Feds increasing their rates overnight? Will the Ukraine situation slow down the real estate market? Will rising gas prices impact real estate? How does rising inflation affect the real estate market? So many good questions. Here are the answers – at least the ones I have today. Mortgage interest rates remain at historic lows, and as a matter of fact, they are below where they were before the pandemic started. Mortgage rates would have to get to the 6% range before they began to impact the market, and the government won’t let this happen. Presently, rates are at 3.75% for conforming loans – a reasonable rate, in my opinion. The Fed rate increases do not directly impact mortgage rates, so this will not be a considerable influence. Rising gas prices may hinder a few first-time buyers from entering the market (they are budget-conscious overall), but this will not slow down home buying demand. Inflation may hinder some people from buying, but in the end, it won’t affect our market. We are receiving multiple offers across all price points, so we will still have a robust real estate market even if half the buyers drop out. Lastly, if it gets worse, the situation in Ukraine may impact housing. At this time, it is helping to bring rates down, but it hasn’t slowed demand or slowed price appreciation. Only time will tell, but all is good on our real estate front right now.

There are many scenarios and questions out there but know that I am here to help answer them. Just give me a call to discuss everything with you!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

February 2022 Market Update

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Didn’t that feel like the fastest January ever? I blinked, and it is already February. It seems like we were just celebrating New Year’s Day yesterday. It must be the pace of the real estate market that makes time fly. This January’s housing market has been the hottest on record. Last month 45% of homes found a new homeowner within two weeks and 35% received a contract within one week. As demand remains strong, the question is – will we have enough inventory to keep up with this demand? Time will tell. If you have thoughts of selling or know someone who wants to sell, now is the time to act. Currently, we only have half a month’s supply of housing available. This means that if no new homes came on the market, everything would be sold in two weeks!

The National Association of Realtors says that a 6-month supply of homes is a balanced market. Do you know when the last time we had a 6-month supply of houses was in Northern Virginia? I have been keeping weekly records since March of 2005, and the most supply we have had per month is 4.3 – and that was in January of 2009. At that time, we had 10,129 houses for sale in Northern Virginia. Today we have only 1,069 resales available. Because inventory is so low, we see multiple contracts on virtually every listed home and have showings back-to-back all day long. I had more than 50 showings on the last home I sold. That means 49 buyers are still looking for a home in Haymarket in the $725,000 price range. If half of the buyers get buyer’s fatigue, there are still 25 people looking for a home.

Things didn’t even happen like this last year when the market was so frenetic. This market will take time to settle down. Since 1981, the average age range of a first-time buyer has been between 28 and 32; there are 23.5 Millennials in this age group today.

Even though the competition is stiff, we can still help if you are considering buying. We have developed strategies to help you “win” in multiple contract situations – just give me a call to learn more!

Happy Valentine’s Day!

January 2022 Market Update

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Happy New Year to you and yours! We are kicking off the new year with a serious demand for housing in the Northern Virginia real estate market. The weekend before Christmas, I wrote a contract for clients on a house in South Riding – it was the only house for sale in all South Riding at the time. In three days, there were over 150 showings and 34 contracts submitted. The house was only 2,500 square feet, had an unfinished basement, and was priced at $750,000 – crazy! The Monday after Christmas, I put a home on the market in Virginia Run. The sellers positioned the house in great condition to maximize their price. In the end, we decided to price it at $800,000. It was one of only two homes in all of Virginia Run for sale at that time. In two days, we had over 30 showings and multiple contracts resulting in a sale in which the buyers waived all contingencies, paid way over the list price, and offered settlement in just two weeks.

I believe we are entering yet another frenzied market as we head into 2022. On New Year’s Eve, I ran the numbers for our market once again, and we are now at another all-time low for inventory of resale homes in Northern Virginia. In the counties of Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, Loudoun, Prince William, and Fauquier, there are only 1,119 properties for sale. People say, “oh, it is just that time of year; inventory is always low now.” Looking back over the last five years, we have averaged 2,901 houses for sale this week – a huge difference, especially with all of the demand. I believe we will be in for quite a ride in real estate in 2022.

Here are my predictions for 2022 in real estate:

· Inventory will remain low –  if you have nothing to buy, you won’t sell, so inventory will stay low

· Homeowners will continue to renovate/remodel as a result of low inventory

· Demand will remain strong – 45 million Millennials between the ages of 26 and 35, which are prime home-buying years

· New home sales will be flat as construction costs, and labor constraints will hold sales down

· Prices will increase once again – it was 9.5% in 2021; I think we will be in the 6% range in 2022

· Interest rates will increase but only slightly – 3.11% at year-end 2021; I think they will go to 3.75%, which is still below pre-pandemic levels

· iBuyers will continue to increase their market share in all areas of the country

· Inflation will remain high…I think in the 6-7% range in 2022 – hopefully no higher

· Demand for rentals will remain strong, and prices for rentals will continue to rise

· Covid will continue to be an issue as well as a threat and continue to impact supply chain, which will impact the overall US economy. This, in turn, will influence people’s home buying and selling decisions.

So, there you have it – let’s check back in January of 2023 to see how I did on my predictions.

Happy New Year!

June 2021 Market Update

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Here is the update on the crazy Northern Virginia real estate market…round and round and round it goes, where it stops, no one knows. The interesting thing is the market has shifted, and it happened quickly. Was it mortgage interest rates rising so high it stopped people from buying? No. Was it a flood of foreclosures and short sales hitting the market? No. Was it a pricing bubble that popped and collapsed home prices? No. Was it regular sales coming on the market giving buyers more choices? No.

So, what has caused the shift in the market?  First, the frenzied market we experienced from mid-January through early May could not be sustained. We were experiencing 50-70 showings in only one or two days and contract numbers in the high teens to low twenties on houses we put on the market.  Additionally, we saw prices escalate tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands above list price, with buyers waiving everything to “get” a home. It was a stressful time for everyone involved – buyers, sellers, and Realtors alike.

Now, we are seeing 5-15 showings in an entire weekend, and we are receiving between one and five offers. Still excellent numbers historically, but it is, in a different way, causing stress on sellers. The expectations of sellers are what they “heard,” “saw,” or “read” about the market two months ago or more – not recent facts. Well, the market shifts on a dime with no real rhyme or reason. The one thing I feel has put a damper on the market is “buyer fatigue.” Buyers had gone out, written contracts, and lost out on many houses. They wrote what they perceived to be the perfect contract and were beat out by someone who had to have the home and irrationally made an offer the seller couldn’t refuse. The conversations I am having now with buyers and agents are – oh, they have three offers? Someone will pay too much; I don’t want to waste my time. Therefore, we are now seeing fewer offers; still, great offers – above list price and waiving contingencies, but the number of contracts and showings are just down. So, if you are a seller or considering selling, your house will sell; just realize the market is different today, not bad, simply different. On the other hand, if you are a buyer, don’t give up; fewer people competing for homes mean you have a better shot at getting one now than a few short months ago. We can help you determine your best course of action, whether buying or selling, so call us to learn more!

Have a great summer!

April 2021 Market Update

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The Northern Virginia real estate market continues to amaze me. Inventory levels remain extremely low, demand remains extraordinarily high, and this is still occurring even though rates have increased slightly over the last few weeks. I do not believe this will change or slow down any time in the near future. The level of demand is just too high.

We continue to see multiple contract situations as the new normal throughout much of Northern Virginia. It is common to see all contingencies being removed and prices set way above the original list price in these situations. In early March, I wrote a contract on a house in North Arlington that was listed for $935,000. It was a 4-bedroom, 3-bath home, and just 1,280 square feet. The offer was cash, close in two weeks with no contingencies, and my buyer offered $1,026,000. According to the listing agent, we were not even close! One of the 23 received offers went up to $1,081,000. Insane! This leaves 22 other active buyers still looking to own in that price point in Arlington – so again, I don’t see this market slowing any time soon. All the being said, the condo market is the only anomaly as most condos are sitting on the market.

So, what is going to happen is what I am often asked. My belief is that inventory will remain low for the foreseeable future as people have purchased or refinanced at exceptionally low rates. As rates increase, there will be little, if any, motivation to move. If someone has a $500,000 mortgage with an interest rate of 2.75%, what will motivate them to move to a home with a $750,000 mortgage at 4% or even higher? I think this is what will stagnate inventory levels over the next few years. People will only move if there is a genuine need to do so – like marriage, kids, schools, job, divorce, death, etc.

Speaking about interest rates, they have inched above 3% for the first time in several months, but please keep this in mind, they are still below where they were this same time last year and are still below historical lows mortgages. Earlier I mentioned rates at 4% or higher; I don’t believe we will be there for some time, so no need to worry about this happening. I foresee we will be in the low to mid 3’s for the remainder of the year.

As always, I am more than happy to speak with you about your situation in more detail as each situation is unique and personal.

Happy Spring!

March 2021 Market Update

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It’s hard to believe that one year has passed since our world changed with the Pandemic. There have been so many changes in our daily routines, the way we interact with each other, how we conduct business, and so much more. The hardest part for many of us was that we lost loved ones or could not visit them due to restrictions. Let’s hope this all changes soon with the vaccine. 

As far as the real estate world goes, it has remained resilient and has even thrived. To some, it may be hard to believe, but true. Historically low-interest rates, crazy low inventory levels, and high demand resulted in a frenzied market over the last year. Housing gained over $3.1 Trillion in equity in 2020 as prices escalated in almost every market around the country. We are only a little over two months into 2021, and we continue to see a strong housing market. Inventory remains extremely low, rates have ticked up slightly but are still very attractive, and buyer demand remains very robust. The biggest concern remains the low inventory. We continue to see multiple offer situations in all price ranges throughout Northern Virginia. Many times, contracts are being submitted without the buyers even seeing the home! Crazy but true. Buyers are conducting pre-offer home inspections, waiving all contingencies, and are bidding 10-13% over the list price to get into a home. I believe we will be in this type of market for the next few years. Unfortunately for buyers, I don’t see a flood of houses coming on the market to cover the demand that is out there today.  Interest rates will remain low to help keep the market moving. We continue to have low unemployment relative to other parts of the country, so people are continuing to relocate to our area. Couple all of this with the Millennials entering the market as home buyers; it’s quite the tsunami.

If you are considering selling or buying a home, it is more critical today than ever to have a professional representing you. Expert negotiation skills and market knowledge are essential in this aggressive market. Please feel free to call me to review your situation in more detail or allow us to help someone you know. I am always happy to help.

I am looking forward to warmer weather and more hours of daylight, and I hope you are too.  Happy Spring!