Market Trends

Yesturday’s Economic Summit at GMU

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Michael Fratantoni 

 

-The true unemployment number is up to 13.3% (people who can no longer claim and still don’t have a job) but is report as 9.7% – it will peak midyear next year to a reported 10.2 % similar to the early 80’s

-No pressure on inflation –some deflation happening right now to keep it in check –as an example energy prices are down – a barrel of oil is in the $70’s when a price of $90 to $100 is normal

-Stock market losses $6 trillion slight rebound in Q1 & Q2

– New home sales lowest on record in 50 yrs

-Housing prices nationally are not going to rise until 2011 and won’t stabilize until mid 2010

-The Federal Reserve is largest buyer of MBS 60% currently and they hold $850 billion loans currently they have gone from 0% to 60 % this year and want to go back to 0% by year end.  Will going to 0% add volatility to market?  This is something to watch over the next 6 months when Fed leaves market increase in rates by .25 basis points – Just saw the Fed will buy MBS until March of 2010

-Theme things are looking up slightly but we have huge hole to climb out of

-FHA represented only 2% of loans in previous years.  This year they represent 45%!

-National delinquency survey show 14% of borrowers are 90 day or more late 2.5 million loans

-Prime fixed rate loans 28 million and many of those are reaching seriously delinquency rates – more than 90 days

-Delinquencies & foreclosures are delayed or lag behind employment trends

-Delinquencies – we are up because of jobs being lost

-25% of option arms have been modified or foreclosed on not the problem media has mentioned and continues to mentions as the problem in mortgage market

-Watch bill HR 1728 – Barney Frank

-Allen Jones BOA SS expert is available to us about Short Sales and BOA

Allen.h.jones@bankofamerica.com

Frank Nothaft

-Its going to get worse much worse slower recovery than previous recessions

-After end of 1991 recession unemployment peaked 15 months later

-After end of 2001 recession peaked 19 months later

-Bernanke says we may be out of recession – the question is how long before we peak with unemployment after this recession

-$15-17 billion is the cost to extend tax credit.  The challenge is too many politicians say they didn’t approve of spending gov’t funding to stimulate economy so even though they understood the need to extend they have politically painted themselves into a corner

-Freddie Mac National rebound of prices bottoms out in 2010 and it is 2011 before rebounding

-Lowest interest rate in 50 years

-Prime loans are performing worst since the 30’s – the depression

-Subprime 8 to 10% of loans represent over 35% of foreclosures

-9% of all loans are subprime but they represent 35% of foreclosures

13% of all loans are FHA and they represent 10% of foreclosures

15% of all loans are Prime/Arms and they represent 28% of foreclosures

63% of loans are Prime and Alt-A Arms and represent 27% of foreclosures

-4.2 million seriously delinquent 90 days behind

-To determine if loan is owned by Freddie Mac check out – http://www.makinghomesaffordable.com or http://www.Freddiemac.com

Lawrence Yun

 

No housing bubble it was a credit market bubble

We are overshooting bottom & need stimulus to nudge further back to make our market “normal” again

-From typical NAR survey 3000 responses – HVCC appraisal survey resulted in 30,000 responses1/3 had properties not close due to appraisals

Prices are below fundamental values

All cash purchases are 20 % of market typically low single digits 8 %

Foreclosures will rise because of toxic issues of unemployment & underwater buyers

Full builder recovery not until 2011

Our prices locally are down 20 % were 33 %

Stock market is at 1 year highs

Support tax credit extension  – Wall Street got $700 billion whole economic stimulus $800 billion extending the tax credit will only be $15 billion

NAR is on FB why aren’t you?

See his presentation below!

Stephen Fuller

 

View his updated slides in the link below!

Look for collaboration amongst our peers, share data, share ideas, work together get along 

We in DC are better at looking at bad news!

Dr. Frank Nothaft

Dr. Michael Fratantoni 

Dr. Lawrence Yun 

Dr. Stephen Fuller 

We’ve caught the 500 pound elephant…

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The economy isn’t as bad as we think it is or as the media portrays it to be…especially in our Washington Metro Area.  Dr. Stephen Fuller from GMU’s Center for Regional Analysis spoke to our office today regarding the current economy in our area including unemployment and the state of the housing market…and of course his forecasts for the future.

The future is uncertain. It always has been and as it should be. We can only predict so much. So Dr. Fuller believes that in 2010 and 2011 the housing market in the Washington Metro area is going to be out of control good or in his words it’ll go “gangbutsters”!  That’s pretty optimistic considering the last batch of Alt-A loans (5/1 and 7/1 ARMS) are due to adjust in 2011, but he did say to that end that the majority of those loans have already gone into foreclosure.

Unemployment in our area is down. It’s up around the rest of the nation and according to Dr. Fuller will go up to 10.2 nationally by April of next year before we see it start to come down again.  As of this last month, there is a 3.5 point gap between the national unemployment figure and the figure in our region. He noted that as a country we are losing 200,000 jobs per month and in order to keep employment where it is currently, we would have to accrue 100,000 jobs per month – again, we are losing 200,000 per month.  Employment won’t return to pre-recession numbers until 2014. That’s a heck of a lot of jobs! And half of those job losses are in the retail sector.  Thanks to amazon.com and all of the other internet retailers that offer goods for discounted prices. Store front retailers can’t keep up, end up in bankruptcy and leave buildings and strip malls vacant along with any customer service that might have been associated with it.  Big box retail shopping centers may get rezoned to accommodate housing short fall – stay tuned.

Dr. Fuller did comment on inflation and whether or not it will happen in the near future due to all of the spending our government has been doing lately. Will we have to endure a hard inflation period to “pay it all back”? His answer is not likely.  Unemployment is a major factor affecting our economy, but it’s not enough to put pressure on the economy to spark inflation. He noted that manufacturers are not struggling as hard as they would be during an inflationary period. This is in large part because of all the products you can purchase online. They costs of  not having a physical store, employees, etc. allows for the lower cost product and thus more profit in the long run. Therefore, if they continue to produce the goods, they continue to sell, then inflation shouldn’t occur…but that doesn’t mean another recession won’t occur. Dr. Fuller said another recession is inevitable, but when is the question.

A recession is defined as a period of an economic contraction, sometimes limited in scope or duration or as Wikipedia says it’s when the GDP falls or when we have negative growth. We have experienced this negative growth for the past 18 months and things are finally looking upward.  As is the housing market!

The real estate market in the Washington Metro area is hot and soon to get hotter! At Gateway our sales are up 4% over last year, but our volume is down by 5%, thus showing that prices have come down quite a bit from last year. Dr. Fuller predicted that builders will start building more spec homes about springtime of next year. He commented that we need to have 25,000 new homes (not resales) to accommodate just the new residents in the Northern Virginia area, compared to 1 million nationally. Currently in our Northern Virginia market, inventory is slowing decreasing. This week we see 5,984 active listings on the market…that’s down 56% from this time last year. Just goes to show it’s a great time to sell and with the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit and low interest rates, it’s also a great time to buy.

Prince William Listing Exchange

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Jason Smith’s comments:

Inventory levels up slightly but everything else is staying steady so the market is going strong!  We are just under a 2 month supply of houses in

Prince William County.  The active inventory has 36% of the market as distressed sales.  Nationally, inventory levels are up 7.6% in July – here we are down – houses continue to sell which is great news for us.  There was a home with 20 contracts on it in Piedmont priced under $350,000.  It is still a very competitive environment for us in the first time buyer price range.  New construction activity is up as well and KB Homes is coming back to our area – stay tuned on where as we haven’t heard yet.

Loan modifications aren’t working with a majority of the lenders – anywhere.  The push to modify from the government hasn’t yielded results from what we’ve heard. 

There are very few FSBO’s on the market as well.  Auction activity only showed 3 houses on the “block” in October – other auctions previously featured 100’s of houses…the tide is changing – inventory is getting absorbed prior to auction.

Scott’s comments:

Career Night, September 24th: Bring an agent and get into a drawing for a designation and your guest agent gets thrown into a separate drawing for a designation at the end of the night. We’d love for you to invite those agents that would be a great fit for our company.

Business planning retreat…Pat Cunningham is one of our wonderful sponsors. Friday starts with golf, spa, cocktail party, and business planning starts on Saturday. It’s going to be a different format this year  with tons of interaction to help jump start your 2010!  The location is easy to get to and it’s a beautiful resort – the Hyatt in Cambridge  be sure to sign up today.

In today’s Market Watch, our monthly market update you will see that there is not much to talk about this month. For the first time in a long time, there is nothing earth shattering. It’s been relatively quiet.  There is nothing new that we need to be concerned about – yet.  There is a lot coming down the pike so stay tuned.  So what’s next?  Is the loan limit going to stay $729,750 or is going to be cut back to revert back to $629,650. Is the first time buyer tax credit going to be extended or will it go away?   When are rates going to go up and how high? When is the government going to dismiss the FED’s advice to continue to purchase mortgage backed securities.   If inventory levels go up by a thousand houses – BOA foreclosures in

Northern Virginia – it’s not going to affect the market too drastically.

Right now we are at May of 2005 inventory levels.  We need more homes to sell!

Pat Cunningham agrees that there is not much has been going on the mortgage front.   Rates are awesome – ARM’s are coming more into favor because of better education and lower start rates.

A year ago I remember the mid September of last year and we were literally in a financial firestorm and one of the things I was thinking then is about the fact that that Fannie & Freddie were going out of the business and lending institution having a hard time making loan and wondering if there will there be a credit freeze.

Let’s fast forward to today, its business as usual. We’ve gotten out of the toughest financial market of our time.  Interest rates are at historic lows.  PMI may require anti-flipping rules to be enforced and will be scrutinized heavily on 91-120 days be on the lookout for changes in this arena.

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All is quiet on the Western Front

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All is the same over the last month or so – same issues with short sales, foreclosures, etc

Agents are being more demanding and asking for shorter timelines – short sales are bringing out the worst in other agents.  Agent’s frustration over short sales are carrying over into other transactions.  Agents have an all gloves off mentality.  Buyers and sellers are also frustrated because of timing of getting deals done, HVCC, TIL, etc. 

Nip unprofessionalism behavior in the bud.  Track all conversations in writing with agents.

First time buyers are antsy – wanting deals to be done so they get the tax credit, get rates locked in, and get closed.

Notice of trustee sales is at an all time high

The highest month of foreclosures were September of ’08 – trustee sales today are 30% higher than that

Market is slowing – sales are down because inventory levels are down

Commercial market is about to tank – financing is gone – only sources are pension funds, insurance money and conduit lenders are the only avenues.  No new construction can be financed either.  Churches and schools are building but back log is diminishing.  Commercial market is in directly opposite of residential market.  Death, divorce and relocation are our salvation as well – people have to move!

Titanium is in control of 31,000 people in our area who are in one form of distress – not foreclosed on by the bank yet.

The attached article was also discussed.

Outlying areas are coming back strong – we are doing better than other counties – including Maryland.

That’s it – go sell something!

Interesting market update

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It is an interesting time in the market right now. For the first time in a long time, there are not a lot of changes in our market to report – it is the same ole story – which is kind of nice.   Over the last several weeks, we have reported shifts which were affecting our industry and we were on top of for our clients and agents alike.  Last month we talked about short sales, foreclosures and those trials and tribulations. Right now everything is flat in terms of news. The inventory levels are down, buyers are still out looking for homes, the hot price ranges remain hot and we are ready to help!

What makes me wonder is, is now the calm before the storm?  As we’ve been speaking about over the last several weeks, many questions have been raised that we cannot answer – yet.  Many of our questions include the short sale process, inventory levels, release of foreclosures by banks, and other concerns over distressed properties still have not been answered.  Additionally, we have impending issues we are dealing with such as the first times tax buyer credit coming to an end on November 30, …will that be extended with all of the billions of dollars being spent by the government?  When will interest rates rise…is looming on our horizon – how soon will that happen? Foreclosures are slowing being released…will they be released all at once and will that have an impact on our values?  How much can the government spend to buy mortgage backed securities against the Federal Reserve’s advice and how will this impact us going forward.  There are a lot of questions that need to be answered and only time will tell what the outcome will be for the housing market.  So, for now, there is nothing turbulent to write or speak about today.  All’s well that ends well I guess will be the theme of this month’s update.  Mortgage rates are great, buyers are buying, houses are selling, and we are still working to make it all happen for our clients.  Let’s hope we get more of the same going forward!

Converstations on Shorts sales, HERA with Ed Dean with Potomac Mortgage Group

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The shorts sales continue to rear their ugly head. Our agents continue to have problems with the time spent working on them, the energy devoted to them and the lack of results they are getting out of them.  It appears now that many of the banks have gone to call centers handling the shorts sale calls for the banks and these people have no training no experience, but more importantly no authority to make decisions on whether or not to approve or disapprove a short sale. 

Enough of short sales, now onto the mortgage news…

This week the head of FHA, Dave Stevens, made the announcement that FHA will not be going the way of HVCC because he is a wise man and recognizes the inherent problem associated with the HVCC.  Great news for all of us in this regard!

In a recent conversation with Ed Dean, we were further educated on the new TIL reforms and told us that 10 days is a reasonable amount of time to get a loan to close, you would have to move heaven and earth to get a loan done in 7 days (it can be done, but it’s not recommended), but his belief is that it is not going to have as much of an impact as many people are indicating. Check out his notes on the subject from our conversation.  Ed did a review of 5,000 loans that his former mortgage company had done and noted that only 30 of those loans would have needed re-disclosure. A majority of those 30 needed re-disclosure as a result of people failing to lock in their interest rate or it was initially a pre-qualification and it went to contract several months later. You’ll note at the bottom of page 3 of his notes, how significantly the numbers need to change to get a re-disclosure.

Other mortgage news included guidelines continue to get tougher on condos with more restrictions imposed. In addition it has become virtually standard operating procedure for every lender to pull the Form 4506 from the IRS to request the borrower’s tax returns to make sure they match the ones they provided in the loan application process. Basically with the way the loans are going today, you have to fit inside the box. There is no thinking outside, underwriting or loans being approved outside the box. And lastly, second trusts continue to have no future or part of the mortgage or sales landscape.

As is always we strive to keep you educated in the real estate world.  Get it? Got it? Good!

Joe Theisman…the hightlight of the RE/MAX Broker Conference

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Joe What a performance by Joe Theismann – again!  Being a lifelong Washington Redskin fan, I experienced many of Joe’s outstanding performances on the field but at the RE/MAX Broker/Owner meetings in Chicago, he outdid himself with his speaking.  He inspired many of us, surprised many more with his message and his delivery when he spoke about how he overcame a major challenge – a career ending injury – and how we can overcome our challenges in our lives by thinking about the following items.

 

· Be a part of something unique and special

· Think about what you will do to make a difference

· Who is it all about – the answer is – it isn’t you

· Embrace change

· Have a heart to heart with yourself – what do you believe in

· You can’t be a major success until you realize you can’t do it all by yourself

· Don’t accept failure

· Think, what can I do to help the team

· Who is your team

· Do you want to make a difference

· You have to want more for yourself – what will you give of yourself to get you there

· Reposition your attitude, thoughts, etc

· What do you do with a challenge when it is presented to you

· Have a passion

· Do it with enthusiasm

· Ask yourself, how high is your ladder – why does it have a last wrung

· Why do you believe in you

· Give and accept recognition

· Become an excited student – make it your mission to learn something today you didn’t know yesterday – everyday

· Fear is a motivator – what are you afraid of

· Attitude carries you to attain your goals

· To survive, you have to have written goals and post them.  98% of people don’t have written goals

· How will you know where you are going if it’s not written down and visualized

· Give yourself direction

· Life is filled with educational experiences not failures

· Be committed to having the feeling you can get it done

· Have pride in you, your company, your brand, what you do and why, and lastly be the best you – everyday

· Be reliable, accountable, available, be customer service oriented, have the right goals, the right attitude and be motivated

As I mentioned, he was right on with many of his statements and comments.  So, the questions is, what are you going to do about it?  Review the bullet points above, write you answers down on paper, review them and get started in a positive direction and live a more successful life.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

 

Platinum Club….another great meeting!

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Another Platinum Club meeting, another short sale discussion meeting, when will the madness end?  My short answer is, when the government steps in and does something GOOD for our industry and gets banks to streamline and systemize the short sale process.

A few observations from today’s meeting include:  the processor makes all the difference in short sales, not the bank; as the foreclosures diminish, REO managers are migrating to Loss Mitigation departments – too early to tell if this will work better or not but us being optimists in this group, believe it will; despite what others say, make calls on your cases everyday – the squeaky wheel gets the grease.  The belief is that short sale departments are small – not big like everyone may think – in one case, one processor is handling 5 cases for one of the agents; everyone in the chain is overworked – negotiator, processor, and listing agent – much of the paperwork is lost in the process; the deals continue to get more difficult and take longer – one agent lost 6 deals in the last month; if the bank knows the property is vacant, it will speed up the foreclosure process;  the short sale part of the business has made agents more suspicious of each other – no MLS updates or incorrect/unauthorized status changes, unprofessional and/or unethical processes are instituted by many agents – they have clients ratify multiple contracts, and releasing contracts & accepting others without bank rejection of first contract is becoming more commonplace are just a few examples of what is taking place in our market;  only about 23% of short sales are making it to closing due to bank rejection, banks asking for notes from mortgagor, and the time it takes to get them to close today that buyers are releasing themselves from the contract.  From the listing side, to get better success, have buyers remove all contingencies prior to submitting the offer – it is easy to do in multiple contract situations and gets buyer buy in – provide title work, your own BPO, and mock HUD 1 with the offer, don’t wait on these procedures.

Additional discussions covered foreclosures.  There isn’t much happening on the foreclosure front.  The promise of the flood of foreclosures coming on the market is continuing to be delayed – bring it on is what we say as our inventory level is down 56% from the same time last year and the most competitive market is in the first time buyer price range where many of the supposed foreclosures will be priced.  We can sell’em if they list’em.  Listing assignments are down 75% from last year.  BPO’s are up – suspect they are for short sales – not for potential bank inventory.  Last year 1 BPO for every 5 listings obtained, this year it is the opposite, 1 listing for every 5 BPO’s.

Many markets are still extremely price sensitive – even when they are priced just a little high.  When priced right, in the right condition and show well – they sell.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

The numbers are looking good!

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Numbers review – we are up as a company!  Our transactions are up 21% over last year – We have gone from 674 last year to 874 this year.  With 80 agents that is a 10.6 average number of transactions per agent through July!

HERA update – no more closings within 7 days, lock early, get accurate numbers to your lender from your title company – more communication between all parties is paramount – HERA affects any applications taken after July 30th – any questions on HERA?

Advice for getting appraisals to come in at value: meet appraiser at property and provide all comps you believe are important – provide numbers we provide you – show anything else you believe was integral in the sale, i.e. number of contracts, number of showings, days on market, number of competing properties, month’s supply in hood, in the surrounding area and any insight you can gain from listing agents on houses under contract.  Don’t forget to mention condition of recent sales through your previewing efforts-you do preview, don’t you?  Any detail can make all the difference.  Be sure to ask the appraisers familiarity with the neighborhood, trends, prices, etc as many appraisers are coming from great distances.

10 year treasuries are on the rise putting upward pressure on long term rates – primarily mortgage rates – encourage having your clients lock in their rates

New home sales are up dramatically – KHOV 90 sales last 60 days

Existing home sales are up nationally 5 consecutive months of growth, first time since July of 2003 – what happened then?  Our inventory numbers are down and Case Shiller pricing index – 14 of 20 markets are up – first time in 3 years this has happened – if anyone asks – yes we hit the bottom – locally in November – nationally now.  This is also good to share with appraisers gang!

No big wave of foreclosures hitting our market – BPO orders are down

Short sales are taking longer – second trusts are unresponsive for weeks at a time

More arms length transactions are occurring

Gov’t is pushing top 25 loan servicers to have 500,000 trial modifications in place by Nov 1st – only 200,000 have actually been done.  Banks may be forced into doing modifications by enacting a Bankruptcy bill that got defeated earlier this year where banks will be forced by bankruptcy judges to slash balances of people who are delinquent on their mortgages in involuntarily.

Other key indicators to watch – Index of Leading Economic Indicators (interest rate spread, building permits, stock prices, weekly initial claims (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were real money supply*, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*, and index of consumer expectations) – rose close to 1 point in June – 3rd straight month it has grown – 1st time index has grown 3 consecutive months since 2004.  The Index of Leading Economic Indicators are closely tied to the housing industry and its recovery.   Obviously we didn’t hear much about these numbers in the news – strange, huh.

New Unemployment claims filed are down 5 straight times indicating worst may be behind us.  The number of Americans filingclaims for jobless benefits fell more than economists predicted, a sign some employers have stopped paring staff as the recession eases.

Applicationsdropped by 38,000 to 550,000 in the week ended Aug. 1, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington, the fifth straight time claims were under 600,000 after being above that level since January. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose.

The bottom line is we are continuing to see great progress in our market – we just need more inventory, rates to remain low, and prices to increase slightly – not significantly and we will continue on our pace of record transactions.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now go sell something!

 

August Market Update

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It’s amazing!  Our market continues to flourish despite the rest of the economy and other market segments in the real estate business.  Year to date, our transactions are up 21% over last year numbers.  Our belief is that we provide our agents with up-to-date, cutting edge, continuous training to keep them current which has helped us excel in today’s perceived “down” market.  In addition to our success, nationally, June’s numbers of existing-home sales rose for the third consecutive month with inventory easing and home prices declining less sharply in June, according to the National Association of Realtors®.  Our belief is that low rates, lower prices, and the $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers are fueling our business.

 

Some of the trends we are closely monitoring are the Home Valuation Code of Conduct, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act and the Mortgage Disclosure Improvement Act to educate our clients on how the appraisal and lending process will impact their sale from a valuation and timeframe standpoint.  In addition, we are closely monitoring new loan programs, revisiting underutilized programs such as VHDA, buy downs, and FHA ARMS to find ways to finance our purchasers. And we are continuing to stay up-to-date on short sales and the short sale process.  Our experience has been that the process is taking longer and we are having more difficulty in getting them through the banks.  Nationally, only 23% of short sales are getting to settlement.  Make sure to stay current on these changes and updates to give the right advice.

 

A few additional insights are that new home sales continue to flourish, there are more move up buyers entering our market and when we meet the appraiser we are having fewer value issues.  By providing them with comparable sales and details on those sales (short sale, condition, foreclosure, etc.), information on activity, days on market comparisons, number of contracts received and current market conditions to provide the appraiser at the time of the inspection – we are experiencing fewer problems.  We still are having appraisal issues but by meeting the appraiser at the house, we have experienced more appraisals coming in at value than we previously encountered.

 

By staying on top of industry trends, changes within our industry, and educating yourself and clients, you will gain more loyal clients and receive more referrals.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!