How do we determine the price?

I recently posted a blog on Tips for Securing an Accurate Appraisal.  It brought to mind the different aspects of pricing in real estate.  It is one of the most important aspects when buying or selling a home in any market.  Keep in mind, in Northern Virginia, there are always people willing to buy and sell in any environment.  It is critical to analyze various aspects that determine the true market value but ultimate determination is what a buyer is willing to pay and at a price the seller is willing to sell.  Listed below are a few points variations of value.

 

-Appraised value:  this is the most subjective piece of the puzzle today with the implementation of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct.  It has taken what was once and almost a given to a tougher process to achieve “market value”.  As a “value add” part of listing process to our listing clients to help them achieve our sales price, we always meet the appraisers at the property to help support the value or sales price.  We include floor plans, surveys, comparable sales, market data and trends as well as statistics on the area that will help in the process of determining the property’s value. 

 

-Market Value – the truest form of value – what the buyer is willing to pay and the seller is willing to sell the property for under current market conditions.  Market value is determined by a particular purchaser’s and seller’s research of the market, market trends and data available at the time of the offering.  This is the value we hope to attain through the appraisal process once a contract is ratified.

 

-Tax Value – what the local governmental agency sets as their valuation for tax generation purposes.  These values are determined by market conditions and perceived value based upon an assessor’s opinion of what is happening in the marketplace and to raise funds in the appropriate jurisdiction.  These valuation occur on a regular basis from once a year to once every 5 years depending on the area.

 

-Perceived Value – This is the value a seller has in mind for selling their property for – it may be low, but often times it is high.  This value can come from past sales, perceived values of improvements made to the property or lack of improvements made that are necessary to achieve the value they perceive.  Additionally, this opinion can come from family, friends or neighbors and what they believe the seller could obtain in a sale.  On the flip side, it can be a purchase’s perceived value and their attempt to “steal” a house.  This value typically holds the least weight.  This value is also the hardest to overcome for a Realtor in many cases.

 

-Agent/Realtor Value – this value comes from market knowledge, market trends, analysis of demand in the price point, and in depth analysis of square footage prices, tax assessed value to net sales price ratios, and sales prices of comparable properties that have settled within the previous 90 days.  An experienced Realtor can be your most valuable asset in determining the right value for the house being considered.  If you have the right Realtor on your team – they are an invaluable asset. 

 

Hire a Realtor today!  Get it?  Got it?  Good!  Now, call us today 703-652-5777.

How committed are you?

Commitment – what is it and why do people have it and others don’t?  Is it motivation to achieve more than others that drives us to follow through on what we know is the right thing to do?  Is it respect for our self and others to do what we say we are going to do?  Do we have more desire to succeed and put for the effort to achieve what we say we are going to do?  Is it our belief that we need to live up to what we say we are going to do?  Do we have more discipline?  Is it better time management?  Is it because we have goals and the desire to achieve them?  Is it a matter of just being more responsible?  Is it loyalty?  Is the belief we need to stand up to our obligations?

What I have been experiencing a lot lately is a lack of commitment from others.  Is it fear of commitment and as a result lack of vision and focus?   Is there something missing in their belief system that allows them to drift or become complacent and not take responsibility for their actions?  Is it just easier to be lazy than do it right?  Is it lack of effort or the belief that they don’t need to follow through on what is the right thing to do? 

It is my belief is that people generally know what is expected of them and what they know they need to do succeed in our business.  Professional and ethics are at the top of the list.  People need to follow through on their professionalism and simple tasks that are required to take care of their business.  Is it laziness that prevents them from turning in paperwork, turn in escrow checks, returning phone calls, respond to emails, or simply just show up for appointments?  Is it lack of desire, not loving what they do, no goals, lack of respect for themselves, the business or their company?

It is my opinion that you need to have discipline, effort and desire to be successful and you must commit to these beliefs and live by them or get out of the business.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

Top 5 Tips for Securing an Accurate Appraisal

When it comes to buying or selling property, a successful outcome often hinges
upon an accurate appraisal. Unfortunately, due to unrest in the appraisal
industry sparked by government guidelines imposed by the Home Valuation Code of
Conduct (HVCC), securing an accurate appraisal can be hard to come by these
days. Colleagues have shared many a horror story about an appraisal gone wrong
and a client that’s left to pay the price.

As a member of the Top 5 in Real Estate Network®, however, I have learned that
there are steps you can take to help ensure an appraisal accurately reflects
the home’s value. Consider the following advice:

1. Keep it local. Inaccurate
appraisals are often the result of the current practice of using an appraiser
who is unfamiliar with your community…sometimes, they’re even coming from
another state! Talk to your agent and/or lender and insist that the appraiser
involved is local and, therefore, understands home values in your neighborhood.

2. Utilize comps.

Make sure your lender and appraiser are accurately leveraging comps (comparable
market sales) of local properties sold within the last six months to help
appraise your home. Your real estate agent can help in this area.

3. Put your best foot
forward.
If you are selling your home, make sure it’s in the
best possible shape before the appraiser visit. Invest in any necessary repairs
and effective cosmetic changes. Consider how your home stacks up against other
homes in your neighborhood and let that be your guide.

4. Review carefully.
Review
the appraisal thoroughly to make sure all the basic facts are correct: square
footage, features of the home, number of rooms, etc. If you find mistakes, call
the appraiser and ask to have them corrected. If the appraiser refuses to make
the corrections, file a complaint with your state’s real estate appraisal
board.

5. Don’t settle.
You
are not bound to accept the appraisal results. Both buyers and sellers can
request a new appraisal. There is no guarantee that the bank will accept the
new appraisal, but it can be used to challenge the first appraisal.

An honest, accurate appraisal can make all the difference in your real estate
transaction. Follow the above steps and please e-mail
me
for more details. I encourage you to forward this important information
to your social network, as well.

Be Careful What You Read

The Northern Virginia real estate market remains strong for
both buyers and sellers.  Although
inventory levels have increased slightly over the last few weeks – more houses
are selling as well!  Our absorption rate
remains steady at a 1.8 month supply of houses! 

Be careful what you read. 
In a recent article, it was noted by Fox
Business
that new homes sales had dropped to record lows.  In our area, builders are seeing robust sales
and tremendous activity.  We have said it
before and will continue to say that we are in the best real estate market in
the nation – take what you see and what you hear about real estate with a grain
of salt because we are different and good news doesn’t sell!  We put a condo on the market in Manassas on Friday of last week and it was sold by Sunday –
the market is HOT!

For the best in real estate advice and news, please call us
to hear the true information about our market. 
We want our clients to be the most informed and up to date with our
local housing market.  We have the most
current stats, data and information on financing as well as the home buyer tax credit and
how it can affect you so feel free to call today!  We are here to help.  The Results Realty Group – 703-652-5777.

Notes from Scott’s Desk

There are houses selling…2 contracts per listing of late – and
in different price points, $250,000 and $850,000.  The contracts came in close to list price even
though they were in competition.

Some agents like Equator, the new Bank of America short sale
portal – because of their quick responses and live chat, but some still have
repeated problems with acceptance of forms in particular formats.  Once in the final stage of approval, it takes
about 6 weeks to close, and they take precautions to stave off foreclosure.

Ask for 90 day short sale contingency approval – don’t pull
contract in final stages of negotiation, swap out contracts with same terms to
keep the ball rolling – you don’t want to have to go back to the beginning.

Short sale listings are finding agents – agents aren’t
pursuing them as much, they are just coming in.

Go back to database – reach out and talk to your people to
grow your business.  We are in a
relationship business – build those relationships deeper and your success will
follow. 

What will happen at the end of April when the tax credit is
gone?  No, what will happen at the end of
March when the Fed stops buying MBS?  The
market will slow…buyers will be back on the fence…financing is tough enough –
hopefully the restrictions on obtaining financing won’t get any worse…rates
will increase – buyers will drop out of market – will prices drop?  Message to send out: look at the positive
side of things…rates are great, inventory is available, prices remain low, we
know what loan programs are available…we need to list out true picture of the
market, it’s our job.

How do properties not listed as short sales end up in hands
of investors prior to courthouse steps?  Are
these investors negotiating directly with the seller or going to the trustee at
the steps or are they going directly to the bank?  This is a question our group would like to
know the answer too.

Appraisers are asking to have snow removed from the roofs of
properties…appraisals are coming in low…fewer sales make appraisals a problem
this time of year…appraisers aren’t going into the house in some cases…on FHA
loans, the lender has the option of using the first appraisal or ordering a
second one, if you are caught in a low appraisal situation with FHA loans on
your listings, switch lenders…

Housing starts rise in January 2.8% – RISMEDIA, February 22,
2010—Nationwide housing production hit its strongest pace in the last six
months this January, posting a 2.8% gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate
of 591,000 units, according to figures recently released by the U.S. Commerce
Department.

According to the latest indexes (Zillow and the Feds “flow
of funds report) negative owner equity has dropped as prices have begun to
increase and between the 1st and 3rd quarters last year,
home equity rose by $1 trillion as a combination of increased home values and
principal pay down.  Although this news
was good for a lot of the country, the sand states (FL, AZ, NM & CA)
continue to be viewed as a high risk factor.

Josh Burruss of Potomac Mortgage Group mentioned the
upcoming FHA financing changes and dates to keep in mind to create buyer
urgency.

The following are some images from our monthly Real Estate Exchange in Gainesville. 

IMG_7864

IMG_7866 

IMG_7869     IMG_7872 

IMG_7877     IMG_7878

 

Do you have an On Purpose Attitude?

One of the keys to success is to act…On Purpose.  Each of your activities must be intentional and must begin with the end in mind.  If there is no purpose to the activity, don’t do it!  Let’s analyze the On Purpose Attitude.

 

O – Outgoing, you must have a personality that is outgoing to achieve success.  You need to get out from behind your desk, out of your home office and get in front of people.  Be engaging and attract people through your personality and success will follow.

 

N – Nurturing, you must nuture the relationships you build through your outgoing personality.  Learn about those you meet, learn about their business, and help them grow their business and you will naturally have success follow you!

 

P – Proactive, be proactive in your daily activities.  Success won’t come to you – you have to go out and get it!  Areas of proactivity must include prospecting, learning, research and networking.

 

U – Urgency, develop a sense of urgency in your activities, as well.  John Wooden said, “be quick, but don’t be in a hurry”.  Have a sense of urgency to get things done.  Don’t procrastinate.  Develop to do lists, prioritize, and move on to the next activity.

 

R – Results, be effective and get results that build one step at a time to a successful life and career.  Determine what your results need to be to get the success you want and set a plan to accomplish what you need.

 

P – Planning, this is a critical step.  You need to plan your day, week, month and year to give yourself a road map to your success.  Review your plan and make appropriate adjustments as necessary.

 

O – Organized, you must be organized in all areas of your life to get the results you need.  Have an organized filing system, organized office, organized files, organized presentations, and you will reflect the professionalism that gets you to your desired level of success.

 

S – Systems, you must incorporate systems you need to follow to get the results you need.  Critical pieces of this puzzle include lead generation systems, follow up systems, processing systems, and other systems you need for your success.

 

E – Excellence, you must strive for excellence in all that you do.  The areas to consider are excellent customer satisfaction, excellent presentations, excellent communication, excellent work ethic, and excellent daily activities.

 

If you act On Purpose in all that you do, you will achieve success!  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

 

Now, go sell something!

Why Northern VA is the Place to Be in Real Estate

Northern
Virginia is fortunate to have the fundamentals to be one of the top real estate
markets in the country.  Residential real
estate prices in the area had declined considerably in many areas over the past
few years but have likely bottomed in 2009. 
The demand for real estate in Northern Virginia continues to be on the
rise because of the strong job markets of Washington, D.C. and the surrounding
areas.  Many new corporate headquarters such
as the offices of Northrop Grumman, SAID, Volkswagen, Hilton and Merck have
recently moved to Northern Virginia bringing thousands of families to the
suburbs.  Contributing to the demand for
residential real estate in Northern Virginia are the many students and faculty
of several Colleges and Universities in the area, including; George Mason
University, Marymount University, Northern Virginia Community College and the
graduate and part-time student satellite campuses of Virginia Tech and the
University of Virginia.

Now
is a favorable time to invest in real estate in Northern Virginia.  Property values are affordable relative to
recent years and are expected to rise over the next several years as jobs
continue to be created here locally. 
Additionally, mortgage interest rates are near all time lows which
enable investors to capture higher returns on their investments.  Inventory numbers are down as more homes are
selling than are going on the market. 
The inventory levels are down this week 54% from the same week last year
and are down 70% from two years ago.  New
construction home builders are also reporting increased activity and sales in
recent months.  There is currently only a
2.5 month supply of homes in all of Fairfax County, Loudoun County, Prince
William County, Arlington County, Fauquier County, Alexandria City, Fairfax
City, Falls Church City, Manassas City and Manassas Park.  For rental properties in these areas, there
is only a 2.1 month supply which adds to the housing demand.

In
a recent Forbes article it was also noted that the premium for rent versus
mortgage payments helps determine when an area is determined to be a good
buying opportunity – well here is an excerpt from this article: 

For
people who want to own a home, the premium to buy—the spread between what
they’d spend to rent and what they’d pay for a mortgage—is much lower than the
15-year average in many cities.

To determine what
cities are smart buys, Forbes magazine computed the premium and also identified
locales where economists predict home prices will go up the most over the next
five years.

Here are the top
10 cities the magazine chose as the best places to buy right now.

  1. Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass.
  2. Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord,
    N.C.-S.C.
  3. Chicago-Naperville-Joliet,
    Ill.-Ind.-Wis.
  4. Cincinnati-Middletown,
    Ohio-Ky.-Ind.
  5. Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, Colo
  6. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington,
    Minn.-Wis.
  7. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington,
    Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.
  8. Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton,
    Ore.-Wash.
  9. San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont,
    Calif.
  10. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,
    D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.V.

 

As
a “Top Ten City”, we are even more encouraged to recommend buying in Northern
Virginia.

Two
particularly “hot” areas of expected property value increase over the next few
years are the neighborhoods of Herndon which are located within a two mile
radius of the future Herndon-Monroe stop on the Silver Line of the Metro and
the neighborhoods of Dumfries which are in close proximity to Fort
Belvoir.  The current Silver Line project
was secured by federal funding in December 2008 and will be completed in two
phases between 2013 and 2016.  With easy
access to public transportation, there will be more demand for housing in
Herndon.  In 2005, the Defense Department
announced that it would be shifting 18,000 jobs to Fort Belvoir.  This increase in jobs will cause more of a
demand for rental properties which, in turn, will keep inventory rates down, force
rental prices up and property values to rise.

We
believe that investors with a long term outlook on real estate will be well
served by investing today in Northern Virginia. 
If you have any additional questions or concerns, feel free to call …

Don’t Stress It!

As Realtors we often don't take enough time for
ourselves – letting our business take over.  The article below has some
great tips from agents and brokers, including myself, who have developed
systems that carve out space for everything they must do along with those
things they want to do.
 

Who Ya’ Gonna Call? Stress Busters!
Overcoming Stress by Staying Organized and Fit

By Michele Lerner

Time is money, particularly for independent contractors such
as Realtors®. Unlike salaried workers, agents won’t continue to earn money when
they take a day off.
Under those circumstances, Realtors® may be tempted to work as many hours as
they can until they collapse from the lack of sleep and pressure. Yet some
agents do manage to stay on top of their careers while maintaining a satisfying
personal life. How do they do it?
Spending a day at the spa or a week at the beach may seem like the ideal way to
de-stress, but many busy Realtors® find taking that much time for themselves
impossible. Some agents and brokers have developed systems that carve out space
for everything they must do along with those things they want to do.

Organization and
Scheduling: The One-Two Punch For Fighting Stress

“There’s no one way to do business, and many agents have different systems that
help them, but I believe the best way to handle it is to be extremely organized
in your business and in your personal life,” says Maureen O’Hara, managing
broker of a Long & Foster Real Estate office in Reston. “I know that agents
have to be even more flexible than brokers, but they need to make a daily,
monthly and yearly plan, even if they have to change it later.”
O’Hara concedes that every day has to have an allowance for the unexpected, but
believes that certain things should remain consistent.  She stresses the
importance of having something related to business development on a Realtor’s®
daily to-do list, such as working on lead generation by getting in touch with
past clients and potential new ones.

“The real estate business is stressful when you are not in control of your time
or your clients,” says O’Hara. 


Staying organized and keeping a daily schedule with something planned for each
day to generate business can help agents feel less stressed.

“Anyone who tells you that you can balance your life is crazy,” says Derek
Blain, a Realtor® with Keller Williams Realty in McLean. “All you can do is
counter balance it.”

Blain uses time blocking and scheduling to handle stress. “I schedule lead
generation time and time for administrative tasks and vacations, too,” says
Blain. “I also schedule time for exercise.”

Scott MacDonald, a broker and owner of two Re/Max Gateway offices, including
one in Chantilly, says that setting goals should be the first step toward
handling stress.

“You have to know what you need to do to attain your goals daily, weekly,
monthly and yearly, and then you need to manage your time to get yourself
there,” says MacDonald. “I schedule my work time very tightly by meeting with
agents in the morning one-on-one, then doing other brokerage work from 11 a.m.
to 2 p.m., then working with clients in the afternoons and evenings.”

MacDonald also closes his door at the office when he isn’t meeting with staff
or clients so that he can focus without distractions.

Controlling your Clients and your Communication

MacDonald uses a BlackBerry for emails and sets priorities for the urgency of
every message so that he can set aside time to deal with each one.

 “I recommend that everyone remove the ‘sent from my BlackBerry’ signature
line from their emails, because once you have that, everyone expects you to
answer every email immediately from your BlackBerry.”

 MacDonald also pays about $30 per month for a service that automatically
turns every voice mail into an email.
 “Instead of listening to my voice mails, which can take a lot of time, I
can read them quickly and then forward them to someone else to answer if that
makes more sense,” says MacDonald. “The great thing about this system is that
you can keep your own number, unlike [other systems], which [require] an 866
number.”

O’Hara suggests that agents take control of their clients and their
communication.

“Recently I left someone a message whose voice mail said they return calls
daily between 3 and 5 p.m.,” says O’Hara. “That’s a great idea, because then
you don’t get caught up in this cycle of constant calls.”


She suggests that agents attempt to have their clients work with them on their
preferred schedule whenever possible, which allows the agents to have some
control over their time.

MacDonald coaches two basketball teams for his children in addition to
maintaining a complex work schedule, so he schedules his practices and games as
appointments.

“When I am working with clients and they ask to meet during a practice time, I
just tell them I have other appointments, and we schedule our appointment for
another time,” says MacDonald. “Actually, when you are working with clients I’m
not sure it’s so great to say you are wide open. People don’t want to work with
someone who doesn’t have any business.”

Agents can easily lose control of their time by being constantly available for
phone calls or other communication with clients.

“I prioritize my emails and my voice mails, because some are urgent and some
are not,” says Blain. “Anything that can wait, I will leave for the morning,
which is a great time to catch up on less urgent emails.”

 

Outsourcing and the
Team Approach

“I share an assistant with other agents so that I can pay her on an hourly
basis,” says Blain. “I also outsource as much as I can, such as direct mail and
brochures, which can be streamlined through my office.”


Hiring part-time help as often as possible to help with routine administrative
items and things such as direct mailing works for Mike Malferrari, a Realtor®
with Avery Hess Realtors® in Springfield, who does not have a full-time
assistant. 

MacDonald works with a real estate team and a team of managers for his offices.
“I really believe that you should ‘do what you do best and then delegate the
rest’,” says MacDonald. “I’ve been very careful to hire people who work well
together, and this has increased our volume of business tremendously.”

 MacDonald maintains that good time management begins with being able to
communicate well with everyone. All of his meetings have an agenda that is sent
to participants ahead of time, so that each meeting can be as short as 15
minutes if possible.

Diane Edwards, a Realtor® with Century 21 New Millennium in McLean, says she
relies on back-up support from her office, especially for brochures.

“One thing that helps me with stress is the ability to work from multiple
locations,” says Edwards. “I have a completely outfitted home office so that I
can relax physically while still getting work done. If I need help, I can get
online support from my regular office.”

Reaching out to your Broker and Colleagues
While some agents think handling the roiling real estate market of the past
few years may require professional mental health counseling, others rely on
their office mates for “talk therapy.”

“I work with all my agents to identify the problems that are causing stress and
possible solutions to the problems,” says Jo Anne Johnson, managing broker at
Westgate Realty Group in Falls Church. “For instance, recently an agent was
facing an extremely frustrating situation with a client, and we eventually
realized that they just could not get along. I took over the final steps of the
transaction instead of the agent, including the walk through and the
settlement. Agents need to see that one solution for stressful problems can be
turning to their broker.”

Johnson says that she tries to be available at every possible moment for her
agents, no matter the time of day.


“If someone calls and they are in the middle of a settlement or have another
urgent problem, I need to be there for them no matter what I am doing,” says
Johnson.

Johnson fosters camaraderie among the agents in her office with guest speakers
and frequent meetings. They know they can trust her and each other to help them
with difficult issues.

Edwards agrees. “We work hard to share our frustrations and problems because we
can help each other with solutions or just by listening,” she says. “We also
have an extremely supportive manager. No problem is too big or too small to
discuss with our manager.”

O’Hara says work can actually be a great stress-reliever for people with
problems in their personal lives.


“If you can get involved in what you are doing you can sometimes leave the
other stress in your life at the front door of the office,” says O’Hara.

A
Sound Mind and a Healthy Body
“Working out is very important,” says
Blain. “Your body is a multi-million-dollar-producing machine, so you have to
work at keeping it in the best possible shape.”

Malferrari runs three to four times every week, usually in the morning. “I find
that while I am exercising I am free to think away from the phone calls and
emails that normally interrupt my time,” says Malferrari. “I like to do it in
the morning because it helps me plan my day.”

Morning exercise seems to work best for many agents as a way to find time for
themselves physically and mentally.


O’Hara says, “I get up early and I am exercising by 6 a.m. at least five times
per week. While I am exercising, my brain gets in gear, too, and by the time I
am dressing for work I am working on my mental list of things to do.”

The Upside of Down Time
When it’s time to take a true vacation
rather than an hour or a day off, many agents opt to schedule a trip between
late October and early January to take advantage of real estate’s traditional
slow period. 

“Luckily my child isn’t in school yet, so we are able to take vacations at
non-traditional times,” says Malferrari. “We plan our vacations around the
quiet times in the market.”

Refreshed by time away from home, agents can begin the New Year with enthusiasm
and plenty of plans for a productive year. Whether it’s relaxing at the beach,
unwinding on the treadmill, or commiserating with colleagues, busy agents
should take advantage of opportunities to minimize stress. These personal
investments ultimately will yield positive business results.

Article can be found here: 
http://nvar.com/PublicationsbrnbspampMedianbsp/UPDATEMagazine/2010UpdateIssues/JanuaryFebruary2010Issue/ArticleStressBusters/tabid/583/Default.aspx

The Market Is What the Market Is…

Platinum
Group and Haymarket Real Estate Exchange in January

AMSHI
is charging $5,000 to buyers and $5,000 to sellers to negotiate short sales…short
sales are getting tougher – for example, Bank of America is taking forever and
in many cases sends you back to square one. 
Banks are setting unrealistic expectations for closing dates with
approvals on their short sales.  Banks
aren’t up to speed on lending rules and regulations when giving the approvals.  Employees at these banks are not educated –
fresh from college, calls are often outsourced, and they have not been trained
properly.  Bank of America is now using
Equator; therefore, there is no one person to speak with which makes the
process even more frustrating.

Foreclosures
are coming – it’s ground hog day – we keep hearing the same thing over and
over.  One agent has 6 in the pipe line;
another has 5 in the pipeline and 6 under contract and is getting about 1 every
2 to 3 weeks.  We are below the national
average as far as default rates and our inventory level is 33% distressed. 

We
discussed “shadow” inventory that we just don’t see, but the media continues to
talk about.  If banks are going release
foreclosures into the market, it will be a slow and steady release and not a
“dump” on the market scenario. 
Foreclosure filings were down 26% in Prince William County in 2009 –
stay tuned!

It’s
tough to find properties under $400,000.

We
are waiting on the FHA mortgagee letter to be released to hear about new
guidelines – increase in down payment with credit scores under 580, increase in
upfront mortgage insurance, reduced seller concessions, and the waving of the
seasoning requirements for flips – we shall see…

VA’s
max loan is now $758,000.

Inventory
levels are slowly increasing which give the appearance of things being slow,
but it really isn’t – especially in the lower price ranges.

Need
to build urgency in buyers – prices are affordable, interest rates remain
attractive, home buyer tax credit is still in place, and loan programs are in
place today that may not be available in the future.

A Real Threat?

The
question surrounding our market lately is shadow inventory and how will it
affect us.  Well in my opinion, it is a
very good question as it is a question I have been asking myself and our agents
for several months.  Over the past 18-24 months we have heard about
foreclosure being released into the market – it hasn’t happened as of
yet.  The latest indication from asset managers is that properties will be
released in the 2nd quarter of this year.  We shall see if it
occurs.

 

The
question I ask is for agents to look around their neighborhood for vacant
properties not currently listed for sale, and ask their neighbors and friends
if they see many unlisted vacant houses.  The answer I typically get is
no, there aren’t that many. 

 

We
ask how many of your friends or neighbors outside of real estate are unemployed
locally.  The answer, not many.  We ask our agents if requests for
BPO’s (broker price opinions) are on the rise, steady or going down – here you
get a very mixed bag but mostly we hear they are going up, but only
slightly. 

 

We
run MRIS numbers Friday mornings in Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William,
Arlington, Fauquier, Alexandria City, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Manassas
City and Manassas Park for resales only in the categories of actives, under
contract, settled the last 30 days, vacant, and rentals to help us determine
trends in the market.  As of this past Friday, there were 4,727 active
resales in these areas.  335 were listed as foreclosures, 931 were listed
as short sales and 41 were listed as undisclosed (which are more than likely
short sales) which represents 28% of the inventory.  These numbers are
below 2008 numbers when we experienced our foreclosure boom.  And, our
inventory numbers are down 54% from the same week last year and are down 70%
from 2 years ago.  Plus, we only have a 2.5 month supply of homes.

 

So
where will the shadow inventory come from is the question and I believe it is
foreclosures and unapproved short sales.  What dictates
foreclosures?  Unemployment is one of the biggest factors.  The job
loss to foreclosure ratio is 6 – 1.  I understand that unemployment in
Northern Virginia is around 4.2% which is very low.  Job relocation and
subsequent inability to sell.  Well national unemployment is over 10% and
companies are relocating here so we are seeing fewer relocations out of the
area.  Divorce is another factor – it is my understanding that they are
down because people are under water with values and can’t afford to finalize
divorces.  So it seems unlikely we will see a huge influx on inventory
from these areas but we do have two real threats in our future – Prime loan ARM
readjustments and the eventual unapproved short sales inventory being reentered
into inventory.  The only issue is we are unsure of the true number we
have here in our area and if it will have any significant impact.

 

We
will have “shadow” inventory but I don’t believe it to be a real threat to our
market as our inventory level is low and we should be able to absorb it with
the pent up demand we are experiencing with the home buyer tax credit expansion
and extension coupled with low rates and reduced valuations of properties.  Get it? 
Got it?  Good!

 

Now,
go sell something!