Market Trends

Market, market, market!

Leave a comment

How’s the market – this is a question so many people want to know the answer to on a regular basis. My answer is, it depends.

Are you a buyer? If so, the answer is definitely yes. Interest rates remain at historically low levels, prices are stable in most areas and increasing in others. If houses are on the market now, the sellers are serious and you can negotiate a good deal. The monthly expense of renting is equivalent to owning in many cases, if not higher. In addition, each payment made for the home owner goes towards the loan balance giving the owner equity over time adding to the owner’s personal wealth. Renting only goes to making landlords wealthy. Other reasons to buy include pride in ownership, sense of community, stability and the ability to improve the property without permission from a landlord – just to name a few.

If you are a seller, what is the price range of your property and where is it located? Every market is different and each property should be looked at individually. There are pockets throughout Northern Virginia where prices are escalating but further out, it isn’t the case. In Centreville as an example, the average sales price of detached homes has dropped every month since July. In South Riding, houses priced between $550,000-650,000 have not had a sale in nearly 70 days. This is not the case closer in towards Vienna, Falls Church and Arlington. Houses are selling quickly and for top dollar. However, in these areas higher priced condos – especially one bedroom units are staying on the market much longer.

In all of these markets, houses and town houses that have compelling prices, not necessarily the ones that are priced right or priced at market values, are the ones that are attracting multiple offers. For houses to sell quickly in today’s market, price is the leading indicator followed by staging, condition and location. Luckily, our distressed property inventory remains low relative to the rest of the country. We are not seeing the influx of foreclosed properties which definitely affects values.

Our unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the country in Northern Virginia – 4.9%, our wages are amongst the highest in the country and consumer confidence is higher here than elsewhere so we are anticipating a strong 2012 in the housing market.

As you can see, it is not a simple question to answer. Each person’s situation is different and therefore you should ask a Gateway professional for detailed information specifically about you. If someone answers, “unbelievable” or “great” be wary. Get it? Got it? Good!

Oh what a night…

1 Comment

We had another great real estate exchange last night.   There was a lot of banter back and forth about our free trip to Vegas for the RE/MAX Convention in March and who was going to win the trip and how.  Great team building and networking as usual before the event.

Topics that were discussed:

  • Virginia home sales report published quarterly by VAR and the great information available through this report
  • Information on rental rates
  • The lobbying effort upcoming in the House on raising the high loan limits back up to pre-October 1st deadlines
  • Refinance activity
  • Home ownership rates
  • Appreciation rates nationally and locally – we are way ahead of the curve year over year but are down month over month, a trend we need to watch
  • The Bank of America penalties to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and why
  • Fannie Mae’s quarterly losses and the combination of losses between Freddie and Fannie and why were bonuses paid
  • Foreclosures on the rise nationally but so far, we don’t see it here and the indicators of why we don’t see them yet
  • Bechtel is relocating 625 jobs to Reston and they are leasing nearly 200,000 square feet
  • 4 ways to reduce your taxes and a reminder we have accountants coming to Chantilly to discuss tax planning for 2012 on November 18th at 10AM
  • And lastly, the National Enquirer portion of the show – celebrity purchases and sales plus incomes of the top CEO’s in the Washington Metro Area
  • Pat Cunningham updated us on HARP, the Italian debt crisis and what that means to mortgage interest rates and the value of HUD homes.

Enjoy the video but better yet – attend the next one in Ashburn at Clyde’s on the 16th from 1-3PM.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

Got to love great real estate minds….

Leave a comment

Wow, what Platinum Group today.  Agents are feisty, fed up and frustrated with lenders.  Issues were flying across the conference room fast and furious.  The question was asked – How’s the market?  Here is what came about – Financing problems are prevalent.  Some owner problems by not disclosing full details – not telling agent about businesses, tax situations or other properties owned.  But most seem to be lender problems – mainly, not telling the truth.  One lender didn’t tell the agent the Visa expired, said application was in all paperwork submitted and nothing was turned in – contract and lender letter said conventional then switched to FHA at appraisal time.  Lending guidelines are too strict, lenders are too ambiguous and regulations need to be relaxed to make well qualified, legitimate buyers home owners.  We are held accountable to performing at a higher standard and the lenders are not – it is a huge problem!  Lenders need to adhere to a business standard – develop one, make them sign it and if the lender doesn’t, don’t use them.  They have no skin in the game, no accountability and no repercussions.

Agents have buyers coming out of their ears.  Listings are being shown but there doesn’t seem to be any sense of urgency from the buyers.  Move up buyers seem to be lurking out in the market as well.

What prices are selling?  The lower price points are selling – mid price points are coming down and languishing on the market.  Prices are up year over year but are dropping month to month since July.  Keep an eye on this trend through the winter.  Prepare sellers to price competitively from the beginning or the house may not sell or you will end up chasing the market.

Are foreclosures coming?  Agents are not doing BPO’s, short sales are down, and notice of trustee sales in the papers is down so the answer is not now.  Asset managers don’t have any idea of what is coming down the road either.

How are short sales progressing?  One has been in process 2.5 years – has had 6 contracts and still not approved – it is a Bank of America deal…no surprise.   We had one agent had 3 short sales drop out last week.  Another one has 10 under contract and they are languishing on the market.

Is the loan limit reduction hurting your business?  It has had only a limited effect on the agents in the group.  Only one deal has had an impact with 10 agents and multiple transactions in process.

Agent’s years are about the same as last year.  Their volume is up but units are down but overall, income will be the same – we will see how the loan limit reduction will affect us next year.  How will 2012 be for you?  Spring is going to be strong.

All the agents agreed that this was one of the best meetings we have had which is great.  The energy was high, there was lots of passion and everyone left with enthusiasm.

Now, go sell something.

Are foreclosures really coming?

Leave a comment

The foreclosures are coming, the foreclosures are coming…that’s all we see in newsletters, emails and hear about in real estate circles.  Well, is this really the case in Northern Virginia?  Here is a quick update on foreclosures and short sales in the five largest market areas in Northern Virginia and how we buck the national trend.  It will be revealed why I don’t believe our foreclosure problem will be as great or as devasting as the rest of the country. 

It is truly amazing how many Americans are behind in their mortgages and for how long they have been behind.  The number of people who are delinquent has dropped but it is still at a phenomenal number – 6.373 million – 1.844 million are more than 90 days late. What and how does this mean to our region?  Only time will tell but if you look at what, in my opinion are leading indicators, we may be more sheltered than the rest of the country.  As I see it, trustee sale notices are one leading indicator as they inform the public when an auction will take place on a property where the home owner is delinquent.  Second is short sale activity and as you will see, we have, as a percentage, a very low number of short sales on the market currently and as many of us know in the business, many short sales do not get approved which eventually lead to foreclosures.  In addition, if waves of foreclosures were to hit the market, could they be absorbed and as you will see from our month’s supply of houses, we are in pretty good shape.  And lastly, distressed property inventory makes up just over 18% of our total inventory but it makes up just over 35% of our total sales which reflects people want a perceived bargain and find distressed properties as their avenue to take advantage of this buying opportunity. So let’s take a look at the numbers.

In Arlington County there are currently 11 foreclosures, 20 short sales and there is a 2.9 month’s supply of homes.  I would say that Arlington is safe from an onslaught of foreclosures as the number of distressed properties is minimal and the absorption rate of properties is extremely strong.  We need more inventory of all properties in Arlington so bring on the foreclosures. 

In the City of Alexandria we have 20 foreclosures, 38 short sales and a 2.9 month supply of homes.  Is this market primed for more inventory, of course it is and investors love the location and amenities of Alexandria so absorbing any foreclosure inventory should not be a problem.

Now, let’s look at the Fairfax County, our most populated county in the region.  The numbers are 168 foreclosures, 336 short sales and a 2.6 month’s supply of houses.  Very low numbers in the overall scheme of things, don’t you agree?

Let’s wrap it up with two of the outer counties, Loudoun County and Prince William County.  Loudoun has 60 foreclosures, 139 short sales and a 3.2 month supply of houses.  Their month’s supply of houses is creeping a little higher but overall, it is still a seller’s market and properties are moving.  Prince William has 106 foreclosures, 237 short sales and a 6.8 month’s supply.  Again, all are manageable numbers except for the month’s supply of properties which indicates a buyer’s market but from a National perspective still in better shape. 

Let’s review, fewer trustee sale notices + fewer short sales = less foreclosures.  Until the trustee sales in Northern Virginia pick up, I don’t believe our market will have to endure a rash of foreclosures but if it does, we can absorb the inventory.  The only wild card that I see is what the banks have foreclosed on that they don’t have on the market and/or are letting people live in mortgage payment free that they haven’t evicted yet.  Is this number big one or a small one?  Only time will tell.  You have to know your numbers to paint the picture properly to your clients.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

 

2012…what will it bring?

1 Comment

I was recently asked to provide some answers to the following questions for the RISMedia’s Real Estate Magazine…

1.  As we wrap up the fourth quarter of 2011, has this year panned out as you expected it to? Were there any major surprises…good or bad?   

This year was definitely a little more challenging than expected with all of the financing changes that occurred as far as the tightening of credit, increase in FHA MI, and continued issues with appraisals but overall we still are having a great year.  We opened a fourth office and agents are affiliating with us which is great.  Each year, I do my Top 10 predictions for the upcoming year and I hit on some, missed on others.  The best miss was I had predicted interest rates would be above 6% and as we all know, I couldn’t have been any further off which is good.  For the best hit, I predicted we would see new home sales prices come down and as a result we would see more new home sales and we did – at least in Northern Virginia we did.  Toll Brother’s had a record year in South Riding, a community next to our Chantilly office, selling 110 houses in their fiscal year which ended in October.  The community where our Ashburn office is located, Brambleton sold 354 houses in 2010; the 8th best-selling community in the country has sold over 500 houses YTD.

 

2.  In your opinion, what will be the most significant drivers of business in 2012 and how are you preparing your company to take advantage of them? 

In my opinion, there are a few.  Investors will continue to play a huge role in our market.  Educating agents on how to work with investors, helping them get involved in property management and learn to market themselves to attract more investors and tenants to ensure success in this arena. On the flip side of investors are first time buyers.  As rents increase, with the interest rate environment we are currently in, buying may be a better option for many would be tenants.  So having a plan of action to help first time buyers is extremely important.  Although interest rates have been at record lows, they have not motivated huge numbers of buyers to enter the market but a sharp increase in rates could be devastating to the housing recovery so keeping rates low is critical and educating the public on the true cost of home ownership is critical.  In addition, HAMP 2.0, if successful will help keep in their homes longer, this will help stabilize neighborhoods and prevent further foreclosures plus it will aid in increasing consumer confidence.  So being a trusted advisor to our past clients, letting them know about this opportunity is important to growing their business as they are a trusted advisor.  We also need to lobby RPAC to keep the Mortgage Interest Deduction as well as prevent the implementation of 20% down payment loans so getting our agents involved in RPAC is a focus next year as well.

3.  What are your predictions for consumer confidence in 2012? What issues stand to most significantly impact consumer confidence next year and what strategies will you employ to help restore confidence?  

If the press continues to pump out negative information on the economy and housing instead of putting a positive spin on what is happening and jobs are not restored, consumer confidence will stay low.   It is critical that agents get the word out about their market as each market is local and even hyper local.  Consumer confidence will be a key for us to continue to drive sales locally.  Our market in Northern Virginia is unlike any other in the country.  Our distressed property inventory is only 18% of our market, as such, foreclosures and short sales are not a driving force, our unemployment rate in Northern Virginia is in the 5% range, and we only have a 2.9 month supply of houses.  It is our job to get this information out to our clients and consumers to dispel the negative news they hear virtually daily on the housing market.  We need to continue to let them consumers know that if their employment is stable, the house is right for them and their family, interest rates are phenomenal and now is the right time to buy. So education is the key.  Blogging, videos, email campaigns and direct mail are how we plan to get the word out to the public.

 

 

How will your year end?

3 Comments

As we move forward into the second half of the year fast and furious take the time to look at your business and determine what you need to do to have a successful year end. 

The first area to review would be your contacts.  How many do you have?  How often are you communicating with them?  What are you communicating to them?  Are you picking up the phone and speaking with them?  As I meet with agents regularly to conduct performance consulting with them – the most successful agents today are the ones making the calls to their database regularly and are meeting face to face with them.  Virtual contacts through Facebook, email, texts, etc. are good but you need to pick up the phone and get in front of people to get the best results. 

Are you growing your database?  Are you involved in networking groups?  Are you holding open houses?  Are you involved in community outreach programs?  Are you involved in charitable endeavors?  You need to be actively growing your contacts in order to expand and grow your business.  You can’t send our postcards, post on social media sites or advertise in print publications and expect business to come in to you – you have to go out and find it to be successful today.

Are you educating yourself?  If so, how?  What are you reading?  How often are you reading?  Do you have designations and are they applicable to today’s market?  Do you attend seminars?  Do you attend office trainings to further your education?  In order to grow, you must take the time to learn.  If you want to earn more you need to learn more – bottom line.

Are you effective on line?  Are you blogging?  Are you utilizing Google+?  What is the content you are providing on your other social media sites that engages people to read your posts and view you as a trusted resource and provider of information?  It is not the end all be all to obtaining business but it is a spoke in the wheel of your success that should not be overlooked.

You have to be better than your competition to be successful today.  You need to communicate better, you need to have better sales skills, better negotiating skills, better people skills, bottom line – you have to improve every day.  What are you going to do today to become better?  Pick a skill set and work on it!

These tips are critical to your success not only for the second half of the year but going forward as well.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

As we near the end of July…

Leave a comment

As we near the end of July, I thought I would provide a little insight into our Northern Virginia real estate market.  Inventory of resale properties has been very stable throughout the late spring and into mid-summer at 7,636 houses for sale.  What has caught my attention is the number of properties that have gone under contract the previous 30 days.  At the end of May, 3,500 homes had gone under contract the previous 30 days.  Since then, that number has declined every week to where we just had 2,880 homes go under contract the last 30 days – a 17.7% decline.  Does this cause us to panic?  Probably not, we are in prime vacation season.  We had the 4th of July holiday during this timeframe as well.  Plus, sales are cyclical and summer is usually a slower time of year for us.  Nonetheless, we will continue to see if this a more serious trend as we move forward into late summer and fall.

This decline in sales has resulted in a slightly larger month’s supply of homes.  We currently have a 2.7 month’s supply of house up from the end of May’s 2.1 month’s supply.  Again, no need to panic as it is still as seller’s market.  We continue to see when sellers price their houses to sell, have it staged properly and are in the right condition they sell in a reasonable amount of time.  In fact, we have experienced several situations where homes had received multiple contracts on them. 

Distressed home sales continue to hover around the 15.5% of total inventory active and on the market for sale.  In these numbers, we have seen a slight decline in short sales and a slight increase in foreclosures.  What continues to baffle me is that distressed property sales make up 30.7% of the home sales the previous 30 days.  This tells me that people want to say they bought a short sale or foreclosure because they believe it is a “deal” when often times they are not deals at all.

Our rental market continues to be strong for landlords.  We currently have a 1 month’s supply of rentals available.  Houses that used to take weeks to rent in the past are renting in just days.  Additionally, these homes are, in most cases, renting for more money.  The market continues to be prime for investors.

Builders in the area are still selling as well.  Loudoun County along the Greenway is selling exceptionally well.  What we are seeing in the new home sales arena is that houses that are priced right – just like resales – are selling.  Overpriced builders whom have not responded to the market are languishing on the market just like the resale properties.  As mentioned in previous blogs, we are in a very price sensitive market today.

Let’s review the national real estate news, housing starts rose to a 5 month high – up 15% from May.  The FTC won’t enforce the MARS rule against Realtors who help consumers obtain short sales – this is good news as the paperwork was unnecessary and didn’t apply to Realtors. And the Helping Responsible Homeowners Act is gaining additional support.  This Act will eliminate barriers blocking millions of non-delinquent home owners from refinancing their mortgages at today’s incredibly low interest rates.  This will help stabilize neighborhoods by keeping people in their homes.

As long as interest rates remain low, foreclosures and short sales remain a low percentage of our market, we will continue to have a steady real estate market in Northern Virginia.  Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

The bubble burst…Now what?

1 Comment

What has been the catalyst in spurring the housing bubble and subsequent burst that has left us in the mess we are in today?  Was it the run up of prices?  Was it greed?  Was it poor advice given to buyers by Realtors and lenders?  Was it lax underwriting guidelines?   Was I the government’s proclamation that everyone should be able to achieve the American Dream of home ownership?  The answer is yes to all of the above.

The housing prices escalated at ridiculous rates – far above historical percentages that had been established over decades.  Builders couldn’t build fast enough to satisfy the demand which drove up their prices.  Buyers were having a difficult time being able to purchase a home and therefore bid up the price of the home above what they were willing to pay for a house originally.  It was a stressful and fascinating time to be a Realtor.  Buyers were mad that they had to bid so high to get into a home and sellers were mad at Realtors because their neighbor’s house sold for more money than theirs did – no one was happy.  Yes, over escalating prices were one of the causes that affect us today.

The greed factor came into play with “flipping”.  Many people bought homes from builders.  In most cases, as they went through the lengthy construction phase and because of demand, prices escalated.  You could buy a house, not do anything to it other than wait until it was ready, then raise the price and sell the home for a profit – many times for tens of thousands of dollars more than their original purchase price.  It seemed as if everyone had a story of someone who did this so they tried to do the same thing.  As the saying goes, too many chefs spoil the pot – well same thing happened in the new homes arena.  As prices declined, buyers bailed and builders got left holding too much inventory.  Also, greed came into the picture with people using their homes as a piggy bank and not a savings account.  How many people do you know that refinanced not just once but many times and bought properties, fancy cars, and vacations they normally would not have been able to afford?  Greed is not good Gordon Gekko and it has affected us today.

How many inexperienced, uneducated people got into the real estate and lending business when the times were good?  Hundreds of thousands got into our businesses.  Whose interests were they looking out for in the transaction?  One guess, not the buyers – theirs.  They got into the business for what was believed to be easy money.  They gave advice that wasn’t the right advice about the market and where prices were headed.  They got people into loans that were not right for the people they gave them to and as a result, they defaulted.  Poor advice definitely contributed to people’s over exuberance in their decisions on purchasing and financing properties and it is taking its’ toll on the market today.

Was it the policies that were put into place that lead to lax underwriting guidelines a cause that lead to where we are today?  You better believe it!  These loose guidelines resulted in allowing people who should not have become home owners to become home owners.  In my opinion, this probably had the biggest impact on how everything listed above was able to occur.  What were the guidelines that were slack you ask?  Here are just a few:  debt to income ratios up to 45%, no income no asset loans, loans up to 125% of value if combined with other liens, minimum FICO scores of 620 for prime loans, 10% down payments for financing investors, interest only loans and of course the teaser rate loan products.  Without these underwriting guidelines being loosened, we wouldn’t have had the ability to do all that was stated above.

Was the government’s belief that everyone should be afforded the American Dream of Home Ownership a contributing factor?  Of course it was.  Not everyone should be a home owner.  Credit scores need to be higher to be considered prime.  People should have some skin in the game and not be allowed to finance above the sales price to get into a home.  People need to verify their employment, prove they have cash reserves, and provide tax returns, etc. in order to obtain financing – it is common sense.  The problem today is the virtually the same legislators who made these loans possible have swung the pendulum too far the other direction and are hampering our recovery efforts in the housing sector of the economy.  FHA costs have risen, talk of raising down payments to 20% are going to hurt the market, stricter ratio requirements are in place and the overall costs associated with a loan are up 8.8% over last year as reported by Bankrate.com.  These trends have to stop if we want to see true recovery in the housing market and the overall economy.

Real estate has always been the key to getting the economy out of its slump and the longer housing languishes, the longer we will be in a recession.  What we do know is that more strict underwriting guidelines are not the answer.  Responsible lending and more educated agents and lenders providing the consumer the right information are going to be part of the solution  but getting the underwriting guidelines back in line with reality is the catalyst to recovery.   Get it?  Got it?  Good!

Now, go sell something!

My crystal ball broke…it’s all about the numbers

Leave a comment

Although my crystal ball is currently in the shop, we do know where things stand in regards to the local housing market in Northern Virginia.  Inventory levels of active resales are virtually the same – we currently have 7,640 homes for sale in Fairfax, Loudoun, Arlington, City of Alexandria, Prince William and Fauquier Counties.  This time last year we had 7,680 – pretty similar.  There is a slight difference between these two timeframes and that is in the number of distressed properties on the market.  This year there are only 293 foreclosures for sale along with 882 short sales – last year, there were 450 foreclosures and 1109 short sales.  This result is a difference of about 5% of the total inventory.  The perception is we are inundated with distressed properties when in reality, we have a lower percentage of overall inventory than the rest of the country in relation to foreclosures and short sales.  Our market is healthy. 

We have a 2.6 month supply of homes which is a seller’s market.  Houses are selling when the sellers have them priced right, in the right condition, and staged properly – often times with multiple offers.  We had several agents engaged in multiple contract situations this past weekend with a few of those properties being listed for several months.  We have buyers in our market because we have jobs.  One of our agents relayed a story of his nephew and their job search.  Over 140 people interviewed for a job at an oil change shop in Florida – that’s unbelievable.

Our rental market is strong, currently posting a 1 month supply of homes.  The reason is people relocating into our area are gun shy on purchasing.  This is as a result of a few different factors.  It may be their confidence in the housing market because of where they came from to relocate here, they can’t buy because of a potential short sale or foreclosure on their credit report or they are losing out to other contracts and have a short time to find a property and get forced into renting.  Either way, it is a great time to be an investor in Northern Virginia.

Prices are stable to increasing in the Washington Metropolitan area.  We are seeing price increases throughout our region in several price points.  Typically in house priced below $400,000 (pretty much everywhere) and those priced between $800,000 and $1,200,000 (closer into the beltway and DC).   In addition, builders found their bottom in pricing towards the end of last year and the first quarter of this year and have started to escalate their prices as they have seen an increase in sales of their homes.  Reports show that we are expected to have a 7.4% increase in housing prices in our region compared with -3.2% in the rest of the country – a difference of over 10%.  Again, we have a healthy market.

We also have low interest rates which are fueling our sales – housing is affordable because of rates.  If people are waiting to buy because they feel prices will come down – they are mistaken.  If they think rates will continue to decrease, they are mistaken as rates have actually increased over the last few weeks.  Now is the time to buy.