Scott MacDonald counts down his 2013 Top 10 Preditions for Northern Virginia Real Estate PREDICTION #8 Resale/New Home Building projection for 2013. scottymacsblog.com
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Staff Sergeant Reminds Us
Yesterday I was at a meeting for Homes for Heroes and I heard a young Marine speak about his life and how it had changed after being injured in Afghanistan. His name is Staff Sergeant Joey Jones
Here are some notes I took and wanted to share with others – enjoy:
- Build a life on purpose – decide what you want and go get it…
Determine what your personality is and what serves you best for your skills- No “one” is better than the whole
- Make a decision to make a difference in someone’s life
- Decide – what are you gonna do now
- You control yourself and your destiny
- You hold the keys to drive your life – don’t give the keys to anyone else.
- Work hard
- Care about others
- Give back
- Make it happen
- What makes you happy? Figure it out and do it more…
- How can you be a hero to someone else today
- Determine your goals and aspirations and achieve them
- If you do anything – do it right
- Nothing worth doing is ever easy
- Be respectful to others at all times
- Read the book – Lone Survivor
- Check out the campaign www.bootcampaign.com and contribute
- Take time and practice then make the appropriate adjustments
- Commit to giving 100% at all times
These are things we have heard in the past at one time or another but it never hurts to be reminded of them to keep you focused.
School days and Market Changes..
The real estate market in Northern Virginia appears to be taking a quick breath so far in September. Through the first eight months of the year we were on a whirlwind tour with multiple offers, few days on the market and escalating sales prices, but as the summertime came to a close and with the Labor Day holiday and kids going back to school we have seen a slight slowdown in the market.
The inventory of resale homes available remains low at just over 5,400 which is down 25% from the same time last year. In addition, sales of existing properties are up the last 30 days by 4% over the same period last year. But the number of houses on the market is up from the previous week and the number of weekly sales the last four weeks has declined each week. And prices are down slightly from June to July – August prices are not yet released. As we look at these numbers, again, my belief is it is August, one of the historically slow months for real estate. People go on vacation, families are gearing up for their kids to go back to school, it is the end of summer, and people are getting back into routines in their lives.
As we look back, in a National report by Corelogic, the July Home Price Index (HPI) showed home prices-including distressed sales-increased year-over-year by 3.8 percent in July. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 1.3 
percent from June and July marked the fifth consecutive increase in home prices on both a monthly and yearly basis. In Northern Virginia, we are tracking very close to the year of year stats with a 3.2% increase over last year. Interest rates remain extremely low on all loan products for housing which is good for sellers, more buyers can qualify to buy – buyers, payments are lower and home owners looking to refinance to stay in their homes also have the opportunity to lower their payments.
All in all, we are experiencing a great real estate market in Northern Virginia and we should continue on this path of recovery. The only issues that potentially could impact the local market is sequestration and Dodd-Frank reform so we will keep on top of these fronts for you and report back as we know more. If you ever have any questions, always feel free to call us – we are here to help you.
Got to love great real estate minds….
Wow, what Platinum Group today. Agents are feisty, fed up and frustrated with lenders. Issues were flying across the conference room fast and furious. The question was asked – How’s the market? Here is what came about – Financing problems are prevalent. Some owner problems by not disclosing full details – not telling agent about businesses, tax situations or other properties owned. But most seem to be lender problems – mainly, not telling the truth. One lender didn’t tell the agent the Visa expired, said application was in all paperwork submitted and nothing was turned in – contract and lender letter said conventional then switched to FHA at appraisal time. Lending guidelines are too strict, lenders are too ambiguous and regulations need to be relaxed to make well qualified, legitimate buyers home owners. We are held accountable to performing at a higher standard and the lenders are not – it is a huge problem! Lenders need to adhere to a business standard – develop one, make them sign it and if the lender doesn’t, don’t use them. They have no skin in the game, no accountability and no repercussions.
Agents have buyers coming out of their ears. Listings are being shown but there doesn’t seem to be any sense of urgency from the buyers. Move up buyers seem to be lurking out in the market as well.
What prices are selling? The lower price points are selling – mid price points are coming down and languishing on the market. Prices are up year over year but are dropping month to month since July. Keep an eye on this trend through the winter. Prepare sellers to price competitively from the beginning or the house may not sell or you will end up chasing the market.
Are foreclosures coming? Agents are not doing BPO’s, short sales are down, and notice of trustee sales in the papers is down so the answer is not now. Asset managers don’t have any idea of what is coming down the road either.
How are short sales progressing? One has been in process 2.5 years – has had 6 contracts and still not approved – it is a Bank of America deal…no surprise. We had one agent had 3 short sales drop out last week. Another one has 10 under contract and they are languishing on the market.
Is the loan limit reduction hurting your business? It has had only a limited effect on the agents in the group. Only one deal has had an impact with 10 agents and multiple transactions in process.
Agent’s years are about the same as last year. Their volume is up but units are down but overall, income will be the same – we will see how the loan limit reduction will affect us next year. How will 2012 be for you? Spring is going to be strong.
All the agents agreed that this was one of the best meetings we have had which is great. The energy was high, there was lots of passion and everyone left with enthusiasm.
Now, go sell something.
How will your year end?
As we move forward into the second half of the year fast and furious take the time to look at your business and determine what you need to do to have a successful year end.
The first area to review would be your contacts. How many do you have? How often are you communicating with them? What are you communicating to them? Are you picking up the phone and speaking with them? As I meet with agents regularly to conduct performance consulting with them – the most successful agents today are the ones making the calls to their database regularly and are meeting face to face with them. Virtual contacts through Facebook, email, texts, etc. are good but you need to pick up the phone and get in front of people to get the best results.
Are you growing your database? Are you involved in networking groups? Are you holding open houses? Are you involved in community outreach programs? Are you involved in charitable endeavors? You need to be actively growing your contacts in order to expand and grow your business. You can’t send our postcards, post on social media sites or advertise in print publications and expect business to come in to you – you have to go out and find it to be successful today.
Are you educating yourself? If so, how? What are you reading? How often are you reading? Do you have designations and are they applicable to today’s market? Do you attend seminars? Do you attend office trainings to further your education? In order to grow, you must take the time to learn. If you want to earn more you need to learn more – bottom line.
Are you effective on line? Are you blogging? Are you utilizing Google+? What is the content you are providing on your other social media sites that engages people to read your posts and view you as a trusted resource and provider of information? It is not the end all be all to obtaining business but it is a spoke in the wheel of your success that should not be overlooked.
You have to be better than your competition to be successful today. You need to communicate better, you need to have better sales skills, better negotiating skills, better people skills, bottom line – you have to improve every day. What are you going to do today to become better? Pick a skill set and work on it!
These tips are critical to your success not only for the second half of the year but going forward as well. Get it? Got it? Good!
Now, go sell something!
As we near the end of July…
As we near the end of July, I thought I would provide a little insight into our Northern Virginia real estate market. Inventory of resale properties has been very stable throughout the late spring and into mid-summer at 7,636 houses for sale. What has caught my attention is the number of properties that have gone under contract the previous 30 days. At the end of May, 3,500 homes had gone under contract the previous 30 days. Since then, that number has declined every week to where we just had 2,880 homes go under contract the last 30 days – a 17.7% decline. Does this cause us to panic? Probably not, we are in prime vacation season. We had the 4th of July holiday during this timeframe as well. Plus, sales are cyclical and summer is usually a slower time of year for us. Nonetheless, we will continue to see if this a more serious trend as we move forward into late summer and fall.
This decline in sales has resulted in a slightly larger month’s supply of homes. We currently have a 2.7 month’s supply of house up from the end of May’s 2.1 month’s supply. Again, no need to panic as it is still as seller’s market. We continue to see when sellers price their houses to sell, have it staged properly and are in the right condition they sell in a reasonable amount of time. In fact, we have experienced several situations where homes had received multiple contracts on them.
Distressed home sales continue to hover around the 15.5% of total inventory active and on the market for sale. In these numbers, we have seen a slight decline in short sales and a slight increase in foreclosures. What continues to baffle me is that distressed property sales make up 30.7% of the home sales the previous 30 days. This tells me that people want to say they bought a short sale or foreclosure because they believe it is a “deal” when often times they are not deals at all.
Our rental market continues to be strong for landlords. We currently have a 1 month’s supply of rentals available. Houses that used to take weeks to rent in the past are renting in just days. Additionally, these homes are, in most cases, renting for more money. The market continues to be prime for investors.
Builders in the area are still selling as well. Loudoun County along the Greenway is selling exceptionally well. What we are seeing in the new home sales arena is that houses that are priced right – just like resales – are selling. Overpriced builders whom have not responded to the market are languishing on the market just like the resale properties. As mentioned in previous blogs, we are in a very price sensitive market today.
Let’s review the national real estate news, housing starts rose to a 5 month high – up 15% from May. The FTC won’t enforce the MARS rule against Realtors who help consumers obtain short sales – this is good news as the paperwork was unnecessary and didn’t apply to Realtors. And the Helping Responsible Homeowners Act is gaining additional support. This Act will eliminate barriers blocking millions of non-delinquent home owners from refinancing their mortgages at today’s incredibly low interest rates. This will help stabilize neighborhoods by keeping people in their homes.
As long as interest rates remain low, foreclosures and short sales remain a low percentage of our market, we will continue to have a steady real estate market in Northern Virginia. Get it? Got it? Good!
Now, go sell something!
Scott's Motivation and Real Estate Market Updates 